I told you before that I read your posts with respect.
However, I believe that you place much too much on the FOMC meeting. It certainly seems that the market has already priced in something in the neighbourhood of 100 basis points hike. Everyone is also prepared for a change of stance and wording. Personally, I do NOT think that we'll see 2% overnight rate this year. Although there is no love loss between Greenspan and the Bush family, it is after all an elections year and rates do NOT double in an election year! In addition, there is a general agreement out there that the effect of higher rates is going to be marginal on earnings, particularly in the tech area where most companies are marginally indebted.
The reasons for what we're going through:
1. The Chinese government is taking serious steps for the first time in years to cool their economy.
2. There is a general feeling out there that earnings have peaked and can not get better going forward but will worsen.
3. There is NO evidence that in this recovering US economy there is also a substantial pickup in IT spending as was the case in previous recoveries.
As for Magal, it seems to be one of the more solid companies in the defense area. However, it became the target of the mad momo croud (like fellow hot air baloons in this sector). And the momo croud creates bubbles very quickly and bursts them just as fast, if not faster. So, where to now? Lower still, I'm afraid. For a "true" investor even the current market cap is way too high. The company made 30 cents last year and promises +/-18% increase this year (although in the CC both the CEO and the CFO did NOT reiterate this number!?!?). If they make the 18%, that's 35 lousy cents. At current level, that's a forward PE of 37. But with no orders for Pipeguard and possibly Dreambox in 2004, are they going to make that .35?? Maybe not. Add to the mix the $57,000,000 worth of stock sales by EVEN EZRA and KIRSH and the lousiest IR and you have a single digit stock price.
I truly hope that I'm wrong.
I feel for you. I really do. I know that you will not make public your trades. I do hope, though, that you're one of the early comers to this crazy party and not a late one.
If my efforts are successful, things may improve.
At this juncture things look pretty grim, I must admit.
Have a very good weekend!
I feel sorry for you. Honestly. However, I already said in an earlier post that those guys sold $57,000,000 worth of stock at your expense between mid-March and mid-April. Would you care if you were them??!!
AND PR (OR IR). WHAT IR????? This compant does NOT have any!!
BE A REAL MAN! DIVERSIFY!!
BUY 3000 IPIX, 3000 MACE, 3000 MTSX, 3000 STKR, 3000 RADIF, 3000 ALAN, 3000 UGHO.
HEY, you'll be rich!!!
The only thing you'll need to buy, when all of this is said and done, is a mansion in the South of France (and be my neighbour...)
When you trade online with a service that caters primarily to retail individuals, such as Ameritrade, you can only get shares to short of small float companies like this one pre-market on a daily basis. As of 9:30 a.m., boom, none available. So, commonsense has it that a POS like this one will run up because most people can NOT short it. WRONG!!! Joe Schmoe can not short it because the "big boys" already took possession of all the lent shares. MM's will add fuel to the fire using their own inventory. The short and the long of it, if you're long and NOT FAST ENOUGH ON YOUR FEET, you'll get killed time and again!!
Those who lost a little (like myself) will not care anymore. Those who lost a lot (and sold) are somewhere else already or just quietly licking their wounds. Those who lost a lot (and haven't sold) will get more and silent as this thing drifts lower and lower on smaller and smaller volumes. Their hopes and dreams will fade slowly but surely. The winners are long gone!!
At some point something will happen to create a turning point. When that takes place, things will become noisy again.
With all due respect, I believe that you made a mistake with ELN. If general market conditions do not change significantly to the upside in the foreseeable future, your stock will trade sideways to slightly down. You bought high! The prospects of the MS drug are priced in already and there seem to be no other catalysts right now. These "full of hope" bios (SEPR - another example) seem to hold their price pretty well. However, having dead money for long periods is not a great idea.
BTW, the latest mini took place this am: CNLG.
I bought pre-market at 6.92 , sold pre-market at 8.55 and shorted at 8.40 and just covered at 6.75.
Nice post, Popp.
You do display a good understanding of the momo crowd mentality. You must not forget, though, that there is a substantial number of winners out there. The fast and furious crowd. Their number is more than likely smaller than that of bagholders = traders-turned-investors=traders-turned-analysts....
However, more mini-bubbles are just around the corner. The apetite is definitely there. You'll just have to be faster and faster all the time. And I mean both ways. Catch a run as early as possible, sell very quickly and move to short.
To put things in perspective, that amount of proceeds from the sales of approx. $57,000,000 is equivalent to all of Magal's 2003 REVENUES!!
REVENUES, NOT EARNINGS!!
MIRA MAGS (owned by Even Ezra and Kirsh) and Even Ezra sold a total of close to 3 million shares (!!!) between mid-March and mid-April 2004. The average price was +/- $19.50. They pocketed +/-$57,000,000 at your expense.
When asked at the CC whether he owns more or less shares of Magal now (after the sale), Mr. Even Ezra replied "less, much less".
A huge vote of confidence in the prospects of his business. When asked if he would plow back some of this money into the company, all he could say was "I'm seeing my partner (Kirsh) before the end of this week and we'll talk about it". Geezz, he could not say "yes, I am willing to put back a good portion of it into the company and so is my partner". That is not lying!! But is what investors want to hear.
What a poor son of a gun!
I bought shares (stupidly, instead of shorting) last Friday on the way down and against all my principles did NOT get out immediately (which I always do!). I sold on Tuesday and lost about 3 grand.
The IR here is pathetic, management has no clue in regards to disposing of shares and the notion that "we are dealing here with highly secretive security matters" and hence can not disclose this or that to keep our investors' confidence at a high level is ludicrous!
There are so many ways to skin a cat when you really care about your business and its shareholders. There are so many ways in which to make statements in respect to future prospects and answer related questions. The management of this thing either do not have a clue (after running this thing for 20 years!!) or do not care at all because they've just made themselves (and their children) multi-millionaires at your expense.
Take care everyone!
The +/-$22,000,000 he made from the quick sale of his shares here enabled him to recoup a goog portion of the +/-$28,000,000 (=R250,000,000 at the then rate of exchange) he lost when swindled by tow ex-associates.
All done at your expense. And don't you think for a moment that Mr. Kirsh lost his last penny here. Oh no. The man is a billionaire.
Here's a link to that interesting swindle story:
The CC was the most ridiculous one I've ever listened too (and as mentioned before I still thank the good lord for having sold the day before).
These guys could not answer one single question in a manner that will restore at least some lost confidence.
It's really not easy for me to say this, but I'm afraid this is the case here.
This company's PR is the worst I've seen, Mr. EVEN EZRA and MR. NATHAN KIRSH (who was swindled by a partner out of $45,000,000 2 years ago!!) put their greed ahead of the interest of shareholders. Way ahead. No one in their right mind sells 35% of the o/s shares of their own company. YOU WILL NOT SEE THIS TYPE OF ACTION ANYWHERE ELSE. This was a definite vote of no confidence in the business and a clear signal for shorts to increase their interest 10 fold or more and for longs to run to the exit faster than speedy gonzales.
It is truly a
Yes, i truly believe it's dead. The burst of the bubble killed it once and for all.
i'd leave that nonsense to the talking heads on cnbc.