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Amgen Inc. Message Board

skinz4q 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 27, 2016 9:34 AM Member since: Dec 25, 2005
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  • Reply to

    a3for2 split with div hike would be nice

    by raggwead Jul 6, 2016 12:20 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jul 27, 2016 9:34 AM Flag

    I'm looking for a slowdown in dividend increases with the eventual goal being to get on the "Dividend Aristocrat" list. $1.15/$1.20 seems reasonable for next year. I'd actually be happier if they increased the dividend by 5¢ each quarter instead of 20¢ for the year. I believe a long succession of quarterly increases makes a better impression than annual increase of the same net amount. Over time, that conveys the impression of a gradual, safe, steady dividend policy that income investors like to see.

  • Reply to

    EPD is looking real

    by rpfla Jul 7, 2016 9:49 AM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jul 12, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    First, EPD is not up as much as some other MLPs simply because it didn't go down as much as some other MLPs. Some of the ones that went down the most have had dramatic reversals, but the pain was horrific on the way down.

    Second, the "day-traders" serve a vital function in the operation of the market. They provide added liquidity both on the way up and on the way down. I applaud the long term "investors" who buy and hold. I'm one of those people. But we still need a liquid market on both the buy and the sell side to make it function properly.

    At 75, I've been in this game for far longer than you. I got started when I was about 15 by trading an account that my father set up for me. I worked as a runner, trader, market maker, put & call dealer, margin clerk, you name it, I did it. Been there, done that, as the saying goes. That's how I worked my way through college.

  • Reply to

    Is this a K-1 or 1099 ?

    by ps56k Jul 1, 2016 3:03 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jul 11, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    If you have to ask that question, you shouldn't own this MLP.

  • Reply to

    a3for2 split with div hike would be nice

    by raggwead Jul 6, 2016 12:20 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jul 6, 2016 7:00 PM Flag

    My original 200 shares, bought in 1987, are now 9600 shares after all the splits. I'd be just as happy with 200 shares each now worth about $7488. Same exact thing as having 48 times as many shares at $156. I still don't see any benefit in splits. Neither does Warren Buffett. I'd much rather see the dividend grow than the number of shares, and they're doing just fine in that area. Since AMGN has grown from an R & D company to one that buys existing companies and products, there's no longer a big need for holding a huge cash hoard. That's what makes AMGN much less risky today than it was in their early days. I still view AMGN as an excellent long term holding, but the meteoric growth days are finished.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    a3for2 split with div hike would be nice

    by raggwead Jul 6, 2016 12:20 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jul 6, 2016 3:49 PM Flag

    You can keep the split and just boost the dividend a little. I'm not a fan of splits even though AMGN has given me many over the years. The high price doesn't seem to have hurt Berkshire Hathaway, so I doubt that a split would be a benefit for AMGN.

  • Reply to

    Opko Overpaying... Again

    by skinz4q Jul 5, 2016 2:59 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jul 5, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    Maybe it's an overvalued POS. I warned about BRLI, but I was shouted down. This is much smaller but the same mentality. Pay any price and hope there's some value to come out of it.

  • OPK can't afford to pay a 122% premium for a piece of garbage that no one else wants.

  • Reply to

    what happened? anyone! thanks

    by willfirst888 Jun 29, 2016 1:11 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 29, 2016 5:46 PM Flag

    Rumors are meaningless in this business. By the time you hear the rumor, it's either (A) totally false, or (B) the rest of the world has already heard it.

    There are several seemingly in-depth articles out there, but they're too much for my small brain to absorb and understand.

    POAGX has a big position in BMRN, and they've been pretty good at picking biotechs. That's the way I choose to hold that group, but it hasn't been particularly rewarding lately. The valuations make my head spin, but the payoff - if there is one - can be astounding.

  • Reply to


    by hun.terrible85 Jun 14, 2016 5:20 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 23, 2016 10:02 AM Flag

    Corruption is the name of the game in Brasil. Stupidity also plays a big part. GOL's decision to buy the remains of Varig, which was essentially defunct at the time, didn't help matters any. GOL just wanted to deny TAM the opportunity to own Varig. TAM was smart enough to let GOL buy it and choke on it. Some Brasilians are very smart, but others have made stupidity into a fine art.

  • Reply to

    The shorts clearly control   ·√ⁿ

    by roshpina1882 Jun 22, 2016 6:16 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 23, 2016 9:40 AM Flag

    There's no way OPK would fetch $30/shr. $15 would be a stretch. I'd be surprised if they could get more than $12 under the current conditions. The shorts don't "control" the market any more than the longs control it. It's a free market, and short selling is perfectly legal. When the longs stop selling and/or make their shares unavailable for borrowing, the shorts will be forced to run for cover. It's all about supply and demand. Thus far, OPK has done nothing to warrant a higher price for the stock. They made a huge blunder by buying BRLI when they did for the price they paid. I said so at the time and was highly ridiculed. If OPK is anything more than hype and hot air, it will eventually be reflected in the stock price. Otherwise, Frost is throwing a whole lot of money down a bottomless hole. I suggest a lot of patience and a strong stomach if you want to ever make money on the long side of OPK. Shorts, by their nature, always have a short term time horizon. There's no tax incentive to hold the position any longer than necessary. Longs can stay long longer than shorts can stay short.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by hun.terrible85 Jun 14, 2016 5:20 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 22, 2016 7:31 PM Flag

    "This is very remarkable".... this is BRASIL! Anything is possible when it comes to money. Looks like total manipulation to me. If the ban on total foreign ownership of companies such as airlines is lifted, the Chinese will go in and simply buy the whole country. It's amazing that a country that seemed to have so much economic potential could fall apart so completely so quickly.

  • skinz4q by skinz4q Jun 22, 2016 3:14 PM Flag

    As usual, Merrill Lynch is late to the party. Their latest recommendation on MMP goes like this:
    "This is a top midstream MLP company that checks in high on the distribution list. Magellan Midstream Partners L.P. (NYSE: MMP) primarily transports, stores and distributes refined petroleum products and crude oil. The partnership owns the longest refined petroleum products pipeline system in the country, with access to nearly 50% of the nation’s refining capacity, and can store more than 95 million barrels of petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel and crude oil.
    The company sports a BBB+ credit rating from S&P, and the outlook is listed as stable. One main reason for the very positive ratings is that almost 85% of Magellan Midstream’s operating margin is protected by long-term, fixed-fee contracts, meaning that its cash flow is not just recurring but is highly predictable and also largely immune from energy prices. This helps to keep the distribution safer.
    Magellan investors are paid a 4.67% distribution. The Merrill Lynch price objective moves to $79 from $75, while the consensus price target s $77.18. Shares closed Tuesday at $75.45."

    Where were they when MMP was $55? It's a total mystery to me why anyone would use a retail broker when they come out with a buy recommendation after the price has already reached their target.

  • Reply to

    Heading to $70 Per Share buy buy buy

    by jacksinv Jun 6, 2016 6:17 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 22, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    MMP continues to outperform EPD by a wide margin, both on the upside and the downside. A historical comparison proves that, but it's hard to see from the Yahoo chart WHICH IS WRONG! (Yahoo erroneously shows the units splitting 2-for-1 TWICE in 2 days in August, 2014.)

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 22, 2016 12:39 PM Flag

    Your prediction of $30 when MMP was at the low in the mid-$50 range looks pretty silly right about now. Those who waited missed the boat big time. My $78 prediction by year-end may prove to be too conservative, but the direction was certainly correct. I have always preferred MMP to EPD, and my opinion hasn't changed. MMP will continue to outperform EPD by a comfortable margin, IMO. The overall direction of the MLP sector has made a dramatic change, and I believe the tide will lift all boats. MMP and EPD are the most conservative way to play this sector, and this could be the beginning of another multi-year move higher. Don't chase them, but rather put in limit orders below the present price to take advantage of the relatively thin markets.

  • Reply to

    EPD hits it out of the Park up 1 penny of Friday.

    by is1531 Jun 18, 2016 12:46 PM
    skinz4q skinz4q Jun 20, 2016 2:23 PM Flag

    The traders provide the market liquidity that is essential for the long-term investors to buy (and sell) at reasonable prices. Without their selling, as we saw late last week, there would never be any buying opportunities at discounted prices. Meanwhile, EPD is having a good day today doing what it does best; playing catch-up. Stop whining and put some open (GTC) buy orders in under the market to take advantage of opportunities to pick up some bargains. Stop focusing on the day-to-day price swings. Use the swings to your advantage, or just ignore them, but stop complaining.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 17, 2016 10:09 AM Flag

    Historically, MMP has outperformed EPD in both good and bad oil markets. Not every day, but over time that's been the case. I bought EPD first, and I still own it. I switched to buying MMP when I realized that it was a much better-performing investment. I still have my original 4000 EPD (2000 pre-split), and my MMP stake is now 10,000 units. I view MLPs as "hold-till-you-die" investments to take full advantage of the tax benefit. At the present price, I'd buy both. If I had to make a choice of one or the other, I'd buy MMP.

    Hope this helps.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 16, 2016 4:55 PM Flag

    What's "more and more?" Ten units at a time? 50-70% upside? Massive inflows? Dream on! Quit touting something you know nothing about. EPD is NOT a get-rich-quick type of investment by any stretch of the imagination. Compared to MMP, EPD is pathetic. MMP has far outperformed it since the beginning of the universe. You don't have a clue what you're talking about.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 16, 2016 2:59 PM Flag

    The Brexit vote still looks like a tossup. I'm not sure that either a yes or a no vote will have much impact on the MLP sector or EPD in particular. Either way, EPD will keep plodding along doing what they do. GB leaving the Euro zone will likely be disruptive and shake overall investor sentiment, but I don't see it as a reason to change investment strategy. Anyone who owns MLPs should be looking at the investment as a lifetime commitment.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2016 6:01 PM Flag

    Head to head, I see MMP as the stronger company. The past performance tells a lot about both entities. There are good reasons why the yield on EPD is substantially higher than on MMP. I owned BPL when it first went public and Al Martinelli was running the show (his son was CEO.) I made good money and got out right before they got into trouble. BPL has been a boom and bust company, but they're a long term survivor. EPD has never faltered, they're conservatively managed, and they'll be a solid investment. Why do some people like orange juice and others prefer grapefruit juice? They're both juice, right?

    What makes you think hedge funds are moving into EPD? By the time the public knows that hedge funds are getting into something, it's usually time to go the other way.

  • skinz4q skinz4q Jun 10, 2016 1:37 PM Flag

    Awesome, awesome, awesome, awesome.... But only at the right price. Don't chase it. Wait for a meaningful pullback. Put limit (open) buy orders in under the market, and wait patiently. The whole market is overextended, including oil. Oil has enjoyed a huge recovery, but it's due for some profit-taking. Nothing moves in a straight line forever. Interest rates are guaranteed to rise from here. It's only a matter of when and by how much. I still like MMP better than EPD, but I own both.

158.51-2.99(-1.85%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT