In their conference calls they have referenced the Chicago 2-1-1 spread or more precisely the PADD II Group 3 2-1-1. The 2-1-1 has dropped in three out of the last four weeks and to me looks to be about a buck below the current quarter average of around 16 and change. 16 isn't going to make for a great distribution but any at all will look good compared to the last 2 Qs. At the current unit price I'm not sure what the market is expecting but I'm hoping for at least a third of what they paid last year.
Yeah a nice buck and quarter added on to the spread which was beginning to look a little sick over the last couple of weeks but this(if it holds) will help. In the meantime with just ten shopping days left Q2 is pretty much a done deal so it'll soon be time to start dusting off the earnings WAGs.
I don't know about gasoline/diesel but the cost of shipping oil by rail is about 4 times that of shipping by pipeline. Apply that to gasoline/diesel and you've just erased all the refining profit unless someone else is paying the bill. Is there some sort of insurance or liability from the pipeline company? I don't know but my WAG would be no. But for my money I believed CVRR when they said output would be curtailed so I'll be subtracting a nickle or two from my Q2 WAG.
At current pricing(figuring $6/barrel in lost profits) that would be about 3 cents/unit in lost profit if the slowdown lasts the remaining 25 days left in this Q or 11 cents off of Q3 if it were to last that long. That's assuming no alternate shipping could be found. Even assuming more than $6/barrel of lost profit it's still not that big of a deal as long as the problem gets fixed fairly soon.
So far Q2 is not nearly as good as last year's Q2 but much better than 1Q16.
Chicago 2-1-1 (WTI)
QTD 16 $16.50
I hope you're right. I pretty much filled up today, even bought some on the pullback for my wife @10.42. I still may buy more but have enough to keep me from crying if it runs away from me. My biggest worry at this point would be a big summer pull back in the market/economy but hey there's always something otherwise it would be too easy.
Well I've pretty much given up on my PUTS. My profits on the 12.50s got eat up by the losses on the 10s. I bought some CVRR yesterday and some ALDW a little while ago. The spread has recovered quite well over the last 7 trading days but it's still down about a buck fifty from a month ago but at least it seems to be moving in the right direction, at least the moment, although still down 4 or 5 bucks from last year. But if it doesn't tank again we should at least have some sort of Q2 distribution.
"CVR Refining (CVRR) is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) that operates a fleet of double-hull crude oil tankers on international routes. The Sugar Land, Texas based company also controls and operates logistics assets, including approximately 336 miles of owned and leased pipelines."
Gee thanks Zacks, I wonder how many imaginary $$ those imaginary double-hull crude oil tankers will add to the unit price.
It now looks like the danger of a big drop may have passed and yes I'd jump at a chance to buy in the 10s IF it happens. It's up to the market now.
Yes FIFO was much better this Q and yes the crack was so bad there still won't be a distribution and yes my WAG was off again with CVRR doing some better than I expected. I think mostly because FIFO was such a big plus. They are still going to need more help with the crack going forward.
Yes FIFO should be much better in Q1 but I'm thinking FIFO's improvement will be canceled out by Q1's lower crack spreads so no distribution is still my WAG. But then my WAG was way off last Q.
I agree that CVRR is a good company. There's an old saying that good companies are not always good investments and that has certainly been true with CVRR over the last year. From this weeks market action it looks like there are a lot of investors who think CVRR has suddenly figured out how to make money even though conditions have not really improved that much. When times get tough good companies do get better but I think it usually takes more than a quarter or two for improvements to start hitting the bottom line so I still don't see how tomorrow's news can be any better than last quarter's. The only bright spot I see is the improvement in crack spreads over the past few weeks but those spreads are still well below where they were this time last year. But for now it's eat drink and be merry for tomorrow it's earnings day. At these prices, for me the reward is too low and the risk too high so I'm still waiting to get back in.
From what the CEO said in the last CC regarding Q1 spreads being worst than Q4 spreads along with cutting production because they were losing money on each barrel processed I'd say the market is not expecting any Q1 distribution. Q4 generated a negative $33 million in distributable cash and I'm thinking that will be the yardstick the market uses to judge Q1. For the unit price to hold or move up I believe Q1 has to beat Q4 but for now I'm betting a few bucks worth of puts that the profits won't be back for at least another quarter.