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Saratoga Investment Corp. Message Board

slcehamrick 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 22, 2016 11:22 AM Member since: May 24, 2008
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  • Reply to

    We go ex- $1.25 today

    by smaycs4 Jun 22, 2016 8:47 AM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Jun 22, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    Looks everybody was waiting for the dividend to get in

  • Reply to

    Poster on SA speculates possible $17 upside

    by smaycs4 Feb 29, 2016 10:32 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Jun 21, 2016 12:22 PM Flag

    all good points BUT we all need to recognize that if they get $1bl instead of $1.2 the NAV is right around the current share price because that project is carrying a #$%$ load of debt, modest risk, would require something to happen BTW I think they could get a foreign buyer to pay much more than the current mark

  • Reply to

    Poster on SA speculates possible $17 upside

    by smaycs4 Feb 29, 2016 10:32 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Jun 21, 2016 11:50 AM Flag

    Well, the worst case is probably that management has blow the estimate for Times Square. If you assume they get $850-900ml instead of the target $1.18bl current NAV is right around the share price.

    From here I say 25% chance of a small loss, almost certainly less than $1 a share. Times Square goes for $1bl or less. Agonizing experience where it takes two-three years and a bunch of tax hassles just to lose some money.

    25% chance of a modest IRR in the single digits, i.e., Times Square slightly underperforms and/or things drag out. You wish you hadn't invested but not the end of the world.

    25% chance of a teens IRR. A bunch of money comes back in 2017 with the rest in 2018,

    25% chance that Times Square gets an irrational buyer who pays 1.3-1.5bl and you get a 20%+ IRR.

    All IRR numbers of course get adjusted higher if price takes a dump in the next six weeks.

SAR
18.02+0.04(+0.20%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT