all good points BUT we all need to recognize that if they get $1bl instead of $1.2 the NAV is right around the current share price because that project is carrying a #$%$ load of debt, modest risk, would require something to happen BTW I think they could get a foreign buyer to pay much more than the current mark
Well, the worst case is probably that management has blow the estimate for Times Square. If you assume they get $850-900ml instead of the target $1.18bl current NAV is right around the share price.
From here I say 25% chance of a small loss, almost certainly less than $1 a share. Times Square goes for $1bl or less. Agonizing experience where it takes two-three years and a bunch of tax hassles just to lose some money.
25% chance of a modest IRR in the single digits, i.e., Times Square slightly underperforms and/or things drag out. You wish you hadn't invested but not the end of the world.
25% chance of a teens IRR. A bunch of money comes back in 2017 with the rest in 2018,
25% chance that Times Square gets an irrational buyer who pays 1.3-1.5bl and you get a 20%+ IRR.
All IRR numbers of course get adjusted higher if price takes a dump in the next six weeks.