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Five Oaks Investment Corp. Message Board

slcehamrick 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 22, 2016 11:22 AM Member since: May 24, 2008
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  • Reply to

    We go ex- $1.25 today

    by smaycs4 Jun 22, 2016 8:47 AM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Jun 22, 2016 11:22 AM Flag

    Looks everybody was waiting for the dividend to get in

  • Reply to

    Poster on SA speculates possible $17 upside

    by smaycs4 Feb 29, 2016 10:32 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Jun 21, 2016 12:22 PM Flag

    all good points BUT we all need to recognize that if they get $1bl instead of $1.2 the NAV is right around the current share price because that project is carrying a #$%$ load of debt, modest risk, would require something to happen BTW I think they could get a foreign buyer to pay much more than the current mark

  • Reply to

    Poster on SA speculates possible $17 upside

    by smaycs4 Feb 29, 2016 10:32 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick Jun 21, 2016 11:50 AM Flag

    Well, the worst case is probably that management has blow the estimate for Times Square. If you assume they get $850-900ml instead of the target $1.18bl current NAV is right around the share price.

    From here I say 25% chance of a small loss, almost certainly less than $1 a share. Times Square goes for $1bl or less. Agonizing experience where it takes two-three years and a bunch of tax hassles just to lose some money.

    25% chance of a modest IRR in the single digits, i.e., Times Square slightly underperforms and/or things drag out. You wish you hadn't invested but not the end of the world.

    25% chance of a teens IRR. A bunch of money comes back in 2017 with the rest in 2018,

    25% chance that Times Square gets an irrational buyer who pays 1.3-1.5bl and you get a 20%+ IRR.

    All IRR numbers of course get adjusted higher if price takes a dump in the next six weeks.

  • Reply to

    Last day of trading expected to be 8/1

    by smaycs4 May 13, 2016 5:23 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick May 17, 2016 10:30 AM Flag

    somebody is selling it like the last day of trading is 5/1 haha but I agree that with an 8/5 liquidation trust trading will cease no later than 8/1 and possibly a couple of days earlier . . . keeping some powder dry for the dump

  • Reply to

    Sale of Greensboro, NC Property

    by smaycs4 May 12, 2016 4:43 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick May 13, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    thanks for the reply good thoughts I see our friendly mid day seller showed up right on time today, although took yesterday off haha

    how long have you been in? it seems like they are behind the schedule they set for themselves when the liquidation plan was adopted

  • Reply to

    Sale of Greensboro, NC Property

    by smaycs4 May 12, 2016 4:43 PM
    slcehamrick slcehamrick May 13, 2016 9:51 AM Flag

    I am struggling with what to do here. Stuck my toe in at $10.60. Want to get a nice position before it goes dark BUT I am in the camp that (1) a general market pullback, (2) "going dark" effect, and (3) tax questions could push prices much lower. Right now I have projected IRRs of 5-25% depending on timing of realizations and amount. Those are respectable returns but I don't trust myself not to bail if I come in here and then it drops to $9 to $9.50. I feel like I might let the chart tell me when to get in big here.

    What are others thinking?

OAKS
5.83-0.01(-0.17%)9:42 AMEDT