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BankUnited, Inc. Message Board

smallercap 142 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 25, 2016 10:23 PM Member since: Aug 14, 1998
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  • Reply to

    price long term continued

    by arielsquarefour Sep 25, 2016 8:43 PM
    smallercap smallercap Sep 25, 2016 10:23 PM Flag

    They earned 11.5/sh in 2011. They booked approx 7B in revenue, generated 2.3 billion in cash from operations, had 13 Billion in assets, 1/2 billion in cash, a 2 Billion bank revolver at there disposal, a capex budget of 1 billion/yr , sold US pellets into the SB market from the Great Lakes, and had approx 135M shares outstanding, etc. Forget about it. Your barking up the wrong tree. That company was incinerated, and has little relevance to this investment.

  • Reply to

    Price Target Long Term

    by arielsquarefour Sep 24, 2016 11:17 AM
    smallercap smallercap Sep 25, 2016 1:52 PM Flag

    They would probably do another capital raise between now and 2020, IF the stock was to perform well. They should recieve additional tax refunds, though how much and when is unclear. If they continue to book additional revenue opportunities like AKS, and Stelco, cash flow could be materially higher than estimates, as incremental revenue is highly accretive to the bottom line and EBITA , when you get past 19 mtpy, give or take. This is all speculative, just pointing out how you could get to 1 billion in debt. Steel prices, mill volumes, and Platts IO index are not easy to handicap !

  • smallercap smallercap Sep 23, 2016 10:34 PM Flag

    With an agreement in place between AKS and magnetation to end there off take contract for 37.5M in cash, I see almost no chance of magnetation surviving ch 11 as a going concern.The chances of liquidation are very high, and they are winding down operations already. Maybe Cliffs can bid on some cheap equipment from there pellet plants too, in a fire sale,

  • smallercap smallercap Sep 23, 2016 10:10 PM Flag

    This might be a little premature, as we have seen when the KPS deal fell apart, but congratulation to Lourenco Goncalves. This looks solid. This is a win.

  • smallercap smallercap Sep 23, 2016 9:59 PM Flag

    This deal, if it fly's, could very well finish Essar in Canada, and crush any prospects of retaining control/participation in Essar Minn as a Taconite supplier!

  • smallercap smallercap Sep 23, 2016 9:49 PM Flag

    Steelmakers along the Great Lakes typically build raw materials ahead of the winter months, when portions of the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway freeze.

    Essar Steel Algoma’s senior secured lenders also cheered the deal, a spokesman for the group said via e-mail Friday. The senior lenders are “committed to continuing to work with Algoma ... to complete the restructuring process and (to) create a new Algoma that is financially strong (and) competitive in the industry.”
    The spokesman declined to identify the senior lenders.

    Funds for the recapitalization will be provided in part by a rights offering of $165 million to $200 million for equity interests in the restructured company, sources familiar with the matter said.

    That deal is also possible because the Ontario Superior Court of Justice has agreed to extend Essar Steel Algoma’s protection from creditors until Jan. 31, 2017, according to the company. The court has also approved an extension of amended debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing for Essar Steel Algoma through the same date, it noted.

    Essar Steel Algoma’s DIP package—previously extended last month—and stay from creditors had been set to expire Sept. 30, according to court documents dated Sept. 15.

    The DIP extension is being provided by a syndicate of lenders organized by Frankfurt, Germany-based Deutsche Bank AG, the Essar Steel Algoma spokeswoman said.
    Essar Global Ltd. was also in the hunt for both steelmakers, but concerns had been raised about Essar's viability as a buyer, given that both Essar Steel Algoma and Hibbing, Minn.-based Essar Steel Minnesota, another subsidiary, have filed for protection from creditors.

    U.S. Steel Canada now appears to be under the wing of Bedrock Industries Group, a Miami-based industrial company.

    NICE

  • CHICAGO — Essar Steel Algoma Inc. is hoping to restructure and sell its assets as part of a $1.7-billion “recapitalization proposal” that could see the company emerge from bankruptcy protection under wings of private equity, according to company communications and sources familiar with the matter.

    The recapitalization proposal is expected to result in Essar Steel Algoma being majority owned by New York-based investment firm Golden Tree Asset Management LP and Boston-based investment firm Bain Capital LP.

    Golden Tree and Bain are currently the Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario-based steelmaker’s principal term lenders, a source familiar with the matter said.

    The two companies would become majority owners under the recapitalization proposal, which would see Essar Steel Algoma’s term lenders and senior secured note holders given equity in the company in exchange for their existing claims, sources familiar with the matter said. That could result in the term lenders holding about three-quarters of the company, they added.

    An Essar Steel Algoma spokeswoman did not confirm that ownership structure, and Golden Tree and Bain didn't respond to requests for comment.

    However, Essar Steel Algoma announced Sept. 23 that term lenders and senior secured note holders have agreed to a recapitalization proposal that is expected to see the company’s funded debt slashed by $1.15 billion. That plan would cut Essar Steel Algoma’s annual cash interest expenses by about $125 million and calls for $425 million to be invested in the company, it said, without specifying the potential investors.

    “We are very pleased to see an overwhelming majority of our secured lenders unifying to present a plan for the future of Algoma,” Essar Steel Algoma chief executive officer Kalyan Ghosh said in a statement.

    The deal is good news for both customers and suppliers because it means Essar Steel Algoma will maintain stable operations while the sales process is completed, a company spokeswoman said.

  • smallercap smallercap Sep 22, 2016 10:25 PM Flag

    Nice You sound like Trump lol

  • smallercap smallercap Sep 22, 2016 10:14 PM Flag

    Everyone knows they will cheat at every turn, including Commerce. They need to be vigilant and relentless.. There are new duties being assigned on Turkey, Brazil, and Vietnam, and new petitions being filed all the time by the steel producers. And US Steel's(X) unprecedented antitrust petition to outright ban Chinese steel from the US, is being taken seriously, even though it would fuel a full blown trade war.

  • NEW YORK — California Steel Industries Inc. (CSI) and Steel Dynamics Inc. (SDI) have filed an anti-circumvention request with the U.S. Commerce Department targeting Chinese cold-rolled and coated steel that allegedly is being transshipped via Vietnam.

    The petition, filed Sept. 22 on behalf of the Fontana, Calif.-based CSI and Fort Wayne, Ind.-based SDI by Schagrin Associates, Washington, asks the department to include Vietnamese product under steep anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders on Chinese cold-rolled and coated flat-rolled steel.

    "Before the U.S. industry filed its petitions on (cold-rolled steel) from China, imports from Vietnam were minimal. In all of 2014, the United States imported precisely zero tons of (cold-rolled steel) from Vietnam, increasing to only 8,686 tons in the first six months of 2015, before the petitions," Schagrin attorneys wrote. "But after the investigations began, (cold-rolled steel) imports from Vietnam skyrocketed."

    In the second half of 2015, U.S. imports of cold-rolled steel from Vietnam increased to 51,018 tons, "nearly all of it in December, when the department issued its preliminary (countervailing duty) determination," they said.

    Then in the first half of 2016, imports from Vietnam "surged" to 173,094 tons, "more than replacing the volumes imported from China in the second half of 2015," the attorneys said.

    "All the product coming (to the United States) from Vietnam is really being rolled in China. It’s shipped to a warehouse in Vietnam and then it gets a new sticker saying that it’s really from Vietnam,” a Midwest service center source said Thursday.

  • Reply to

    All This Terrorism will Help Trump...

    by vipinkot47 Sep 19, 2016 9:31 AM
    smallercap smallercap Sep 22, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    You need to study the history of the world. Brut force, slavery, murder, war, and conquered civilizations
    define our species. It's not an American thing Mucky. Study the wars that shaped Europe, and Asia. They didn't put them on reservations, they murdered them, or enslaved there captives. This notion that Americans are diff is absurd. We are just younger and our scars more recent. That is the diff.

  • smallercap smallercap Sep 21, 2016 11:43 AM Flag

    Completely agree. My experience in this business has shown me that "Professional" short sellers are among the very savvy and most successful investors They do first rate due diligence, and look far and wide, leaving few stones unturned.. And of course, fair or not, they can pile drive. And when they show up in your stocks in size, best pay serious attention.They smelled blood here some 40/50 points ago, and made a killing. And yes they are hedged in a number of ways, from the senior bonds, secured notes, to box positions that don't show up on the radar, to options. But it would seem to me that the short trade is closer to the end than the beginning, as one can justify the current enterprise value going forward, with room to increase, with the most obvious.....a rise in market cap, coming from declining debt(a wash) and improving cash flows..

  • Reply to

    Muckycon

    by pablosummit5 Sep 19, 2016 7:27 PM
    smallercap smallercap Sep 20, 2016 9:09 PM Flag

    The bible....FORBES. They estimate Trumps net worth at 4.5B, and are conservative in there #s. He has been climbing the Forbes 400 for some 33 years. Trump
    says he's worth 10B, for the record.

  • Reply to

    Muckycon

    by pablosummit5 Sep 19, 2016 7:27 PM
    smallercap smallercap Sep 20, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    that is crazy. He is worth billions, from an assortment of business interests, some successful, some not .How can he be a failed business person? A common staple of very rich successful people are failed ventures, because they are risk takers for the most part. Billionaires Carl Ichan and Marc Cuban have too many failed enterprises to list, 100s. Here is a sample of some familiar names...Mamma.com, motricity, XO comm, etc etc. In Atlantic City, just about every casino failed or reorganized( maybe The Borgata is the exception) as gambling swept the nation, and cannibalized/crushed the existing casinos there that once had exclusive gaming rights. Maybe you don't like his political views, character, personality, etc, but to say he is a failed business person is just garbage.

  • smallercap smallercap Sep 19, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    “The United States is the biggest market and source of scrap in the entire world,” he told delegates. “China will overtake that (U.S. supply). It will take 20 years. ... Scrap will be very expensive (in the meantime). What’s going to happen when (China has) enough scrap? They will put it to use. They will have a lot of (electric-arc furnaces) over there.”

    Meanwhile, U.S. steel service centers must continue to focus on preventing steel price erosion. “We need to understand the concept of value,” Goncalves said. “You can’t go after volume (to boost margins). … You add value or you are not going to be part of the picture. Low prices can only and will only destroy the market. The goal of distribution should be to keep the U.S. steel industry competitive and healthy.”

    Asked how the upcoming U.S. presidential election might affect the fight against steel dumping, Goncalves said, “A good thing about this (current) administration ... is they want to listen. It would be easier, more or less, if the same people in charge right now continued to be in charge. The worst-case scenario would be a Trump victory, and the best-case scenario would be a Hillary (victory) for this specific (trade) standpoint.”

  • NEW YORK — Australia's iron ore industry could face obsolescence if China focuses on more environmentally friendly steelmaking processes, according to Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.’s top executive.

    China is facing internal and external pressure to confront the environmental and related public health consequences of its iron ore-heavy steel production, and to clean up steelmaking via the use of electric-arc furnaces (EFs), according to Lourenco Goncalves, chairman, president and chief executive officer of the Cleveland-based iron ore producer.

    “When China resolves their problems, Australia will be history,” Goncalves said at the Association of Steel Distributors’ regional meeting in Cleveland.

    Australia provides significant amounts of iron ore to China, an arrangement Goncalves blamed for China's steel overproduction. “Dumping starts in Australia,” he said. “Australia found (in China) an easy market for their high-polluting iron ore sinter feed … with no regard for the consequences.”

    Overcapacity exists everywhere except in the United States, Goncalves said, noting that steel capacity exceeds consumption in Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Europe—but only China overproduces. “The problem is not overcapacity. The problem is overproduction. ... Without overproduction (of iron ore) in Australia, we would not have the same level of overproduction (of steel) in China. We would still have some, but not as much.”

    If China switches to EF-based steelmaking, it likely will focus on scrap-based production, Goncalves said.

  • Reply to

    Reuters Article Positive about Ore

    by arielsquarefour Sep 19, 2016 10:40 AM
    smallercap smallercap Sep 19, 2016 2:03 PM Flag

    good point. Cliffs is clearly taking advantage of competitors falling by the wayside on the iron range, like magnetation and Essar Minn(AKS and MT supply deals)), and even US steel, as Cliffs would like to sign up Steclco long term. They will be in a good spot if capacity utilization of the integrated steel makers rises next year. Commerce seems vigilant on trade duties, but declining steel prices and utilization rates under 70% remain concerns as the global steel glut and huge overcapacity persist.

  • Friday, the Department of Commerce announced its affirmative preliminary determinations in the antidumping investigations of imports of certain carbon and alloy steel cut-to-length plate (CTL plate) from Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey.

    CTL plate is a flat-rolled carbon and alloy steel product that is 4.75 mm or more in thickness and that has a defined length (i.e., it is not in coils). CTL plate is used in a wide variety of applications including welded load-bearing and structural applications such as in buildings or bridgework; transmission towers and light poles; agricultural, construction, and mining equipment; machine parts and tooling; heaving transportation equipment like ships, rail cars, tankers and barges; and large diameter line pipe.

    Commerce preliminarily determined that imports of CTL plate from Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey have been sold in the United States at dumping margins of 74.52 percent, 87.72 percent to 94.14 percent, and 42.02 percent to 50.00 percent, respectively. Mandatory respondents from all three countries were assigned margins based on adverse facts for failing to cooperate in the investigation.

    Customs and Border Protection will be instructed to collect cash deposits based on the preliminary rates.

    Critical circumstances were found by Commerce to exist for all exporters from Brazil and Turkey. Duties for these two countries will be retroactive effective 90 days prior to the Sept. 7, 2016 decision by Commerce.

  • SMU attended the regional meeting of the Associated Steel Distributors (ASD) on Sept. 15 in Cleveland, Ohio. The meeting was well attended for a presentation by Cliffs Natural Resources CEO Lourenco Goncalves. Mr. Goncalves spoke about the environment, trade and how conditions in the iron ore industry impact global steel supply, or, in recent years, oversupply. Recent trade case successes are helping to correct illegal foreign trade policies. The U.S. needs steel exports, said Goncalves, but they need them at fair and unsubsidized prices.

    China is moving toward correcting its excess supply problems and cleaning up the pollution that its redundant and inefficient mills have created. Eventually China will be a major player in the scrap industry as more EAFs are built and the country moves away from sinter feedstock. But, until it generates enough of its own scrap steel, look for China to become a major purchaser of scrap.

    Mr. Goncalves recently spoke on this topic at the Steel Market Update Steel Summit in Atlanta, GA in August. An item that he added to his ASD presentation was his belief in the strength and importance of service centers and distributors for the U.S. steel industry. He urged that service centers toe the line on pricing and not capitulate to lowering prices just to make a sale. Only through pricing discipline and offering value can the steel industry stay healthy and continue to grow

  • U.S. steel distributors' shipments rebounded in August, but market participants cautioned against reading too much optimism into the improved numbers. Carbon steel shipments increased by 436,300 tons in August and almost reversed the decline of 443,300 in July. These gyrations are mostly driven by the number of shipping days in the month which were 22 in June, 20 in July and 23 in August. Overall the August result on a tons / day basis made very little progress. Plate and structurals were up, sheet and bar products were flat and tubulars decline. Total service center carbon steel shipments increased by 900 tons on a per day basis from 138,800 in July to 139,700 in August, an increase of 0.6%. In the eight years since and including 2009, August shipments on average on a t / d basis have been up by 3.2% from July. Therefore this August was disappointing. This observation is intended to give a long term perspective because MSCI data is quite seasonal and we need to get past that before commenting in detail on current results. Figure 1 demonstrates this seasonality and why comparing a month’s performance with the previous month is usually misleading.

BKU
29.89-0.56(-1.84%)Sep 26 4:02 PMEDT