It sounds like the SA's will never let the oil glut occur again in the future the way they did these last several years. If they start to limit or even not expand production, oil will sky rocket. No time to be short oil now.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
That's my whole point here. The bulk of those purchases were when the stock was trading below $6. Now at $6.60's and above book. Divy may be safe on principal, but continued payouts in excess of earnings will lower NAV and thus earnings in this quarter would have to almost double from last quarter to keep NAV at it's current $6.46. Not saying its not a good investment, but its come too far too fast. Good stock, but in the lower 6's.--JMHO of course
I will be surprised if it doesn't sell off just prior to ex-dividend as it has made a strong run up and is still not covering the dividend with earnings. Thus, makes no sense to trade above book.
Yet none of this matters as fundamentals no longer rule the price of oil--big money has backed increasing the price of oil--SA knows it doesn't matter how much oil they pump--it's been decided that oil will be $60 by year end and $75 to $80 next year. Stop fighting the inevitable. And stop worrying about inventory levels--they no longer matter to the long term price of oil.
More and more, traders are learning that weekly inventory moves have nothing to do with the fact that oil supply still greatly out weighs demand world wide. Continuing to dwell on small inventory moves at individual storage sites has nothing to do with supply and demand and more to do with shipment timing.
You are absolutely right--fundamentals are out the window going forward. Big money(banks, oil) will force this issue, they have too. Over supply, higher dollar--really don't matter anymore.
How come there's no huge headline about this. Read it in a news flash on seeking alpha last night. Over 300,000 bpd to start. So much for the temporary stopage's. I wonder what the big money excuses will be today. Mean while glut continue more than ever--not decreasing one bit.
Tough to call any price here anymore since the commodity no longer trades based upon fundamentals--ie. supply and demand. If it did, oil would easily trade back into the 30's per barrel as supply continues to exceed demand week in and week out. Best not to trade this market at all.
And yet oil price still rises--this market doesn't care about fundamentals. Money is behind the long futures so as to get the US market going again. Forget these reports as they no longer have a correlation to whether the price of oil goes up or not. Follow the big money in the futures, that will tell you what side to invest on.
I'm no RAS rah rah, but you leave alot of info out of your numbers. Perhaps the biggest item is the significant write down and eventually off of the Taberna fiasco, That accounts for most if not all of you equity change from 2012 through 2014--but if you had a clue you would already know that and that that issue was necessary for RAS to move forward. That said, they were issuing new shares all along to make new investments, but now due to share price, that has been discontinued. Almost half way through 2016 and shares are still at 91 million--no new issues. Capital is very tight for RAS right now, no doubt about it, but i really don't think your analysis will continue out as it did--but you already know that. What matters as an investor is what does the future hold, and not what happened in the past--unless the company has made no changes--which with the removal of Taberna investment , significant change has been accomplished--but then you already know that--you just left it out.
They may be a significant owner, who by the way made a great investment and is now cashing in on it, but I wouldn't classify them as an "insider". Insiders have NOT sold any significant shares.
Not seeing any huge insider selling other than options transactions. Where did you get your info. ETrade doesn't reflect what you are saying.
I have no reason not to believe them--they had been able to produce time and time again. That coupled with Iran's increase and a slowing economy world wide shows me that the glut is here for awhile. Doesn't mean big money won't continue to support prices even though excess supply has not changed in three months.
Companies that have money left over do not cut their dividends. They are certainly in a capital squeeze position. That being said, they are far from going out of business.
So just continue to ignore the continued week after week of over supply and the slowing economies world wide? Regardless of the small day to day disruptions which have occurred, each week there continues to be a supply glut--at some point it won't be ignored. No way you see any where near 75 unless big guys cut supply. So far they have promised to increase an already high production of oil.
Double talk doesn't work with me. I am having a nice day because I stayed in for the dividend and the stock is far from $29 and reported strong results. Now all of a sudden you are "almost fully invested" instead of looking for $29? Yeah I believe you. Not. Me have a Doughnut--your a joke--with no credibility. Enjoy your dreams.