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НТЕ Message Board

smkros 58 posts  |  Last Activity: May 23, 2016 9:58 AM Member since: Oct 27, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Offer to go Private

    by value_investor_1001 May 21, 2016 3:59 PM
    smkros smkros May 23, 2016 9:58 AM Flag

    It would be nice if another bidder appeared; or for the board to hire a banker to solicit additional offers.

  • Reply to

    Slowly Heading Towards 0

    by value_investor_1001 Aug 28, 2015 5:39 PM
    smkros smkros Aug 31, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    Not when the Chairman has bought 15% of the company in the last 14 months. I'm expecting to see some good news that will move the price up.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • smkros smkros Feb 17, 2015 8:23 AM Flag

    It's true the business outlook sure doesn't look good and the dividend cut is confirmation of that. However, the question I'm intrigued by is why is the chairman buying so many shares on his own account when the business outlook is so dim? As the saying goes, there are a lot of reasons why an insider may sell but only one reason why they would buy.

    My hope is that they've decided to wind down the business and then liquidate the assets.

  • smkros smkros Feb 13, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    The chairman added an additional 69k shares since mid-December. He has now purchased over a million shares since the beginning of April, 2014. In that time period a total of 5 million shares have traded, which means his purchases have accounted for 20% of the total volume.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    prior owner

    by talbert744 Jan 4, 2015 11:57 AM
    smkros smkros Jan 5, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    The Chairman of the Board has increased his stake in the company from 10% to 18% over the last 6 months with open market purchases. He bought in the $2.00 to $2.20 range. The stock has been that low before, so his purchases may be an indication that something is in the works now. The company is also about a month late in reporting its fiscal second quarter results.

  • Reply to

    Takeover Target

    by smkros Sep 24, 2014 9:06 AM
    smkros smkros Sep 24, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    Because roughly 30% of the company shares were tendered at $2.50. To buy a majority of the outstanding shares, you could presume a higher price would be needed.

  • With so many shares being tendered at $2.50, you have to wonder if that caught the eye of a private equity company or a larger chip company looking for an acquisition. I bet a $3 to $3.50 offer could buy enough of the company to take it private.

  • Reply to

    Nam Tai Valuation

    by queen_anne_22 Sep 16, 2014 10:56 AM
    smkros smkros Sep 22, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    I know the land is worth much more than $0. I am a buyer today and will back up the truck if price falls below $6. Owning or having control of a transferrable long term land lease for infill real estate in a city like Shenzhen is kind of a dream come true for me. It's like my long lost Chinese uncle I didn't even know existed died and left me a great piece of real estate in his will.

    I see on google earth that there is about a 7.5 acre parcel just south of Nam Tai's land that has been redeveloped into a high rise complex since 2010 - probably residential. Google Earth allows you to see past satellite images. You can see the property is under construction in 2011 and finished by 11/2012. I would love to get the land comp for this if anyone has it. I take this as validation that redevelopment in the area is underway.

    If you're interested, the parcel I'm writing about is at 22 degrees, 36' 16.64" North and 113 degrees 51'24.59" East.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Confidence from Dividend Payment

    by smkros Jun 27, 2014 1:00 PM
    smkros smkros Jun 30, 2014 8:50 AM Flag

    Both CCCL and LIWA were reverse mergers, which puts them into an entirely different category of "suspicous" in my mind. There have been no frauds of an IPO'd US listed Chinese company that has also paid a divident.

  • There has not been a single instance of proven or even credibly suspected fraud by a US listed Chinese company that has paid a dividend (I believe). With the confirmed payment of a 10% special dvidend, I would have thought the market's discounting of fraud risk (the probability that ZA is a fraudulent company) would have changed meaningfully and the stock would have rallied.

    Is the market just slow to react to the information or are there other issues that warrant the ridiculously low valuation?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • smkros by smkros Jan 28, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    At less than $6 per share you are basically getting all of the land NTE owns in Shenzhen for free. There are development risks, entitlement risks, political risks, currency risks, construction risks, etc., but the land is certainly available at the right price. I know management doesn't have any real estate development experience, but that can basically be mitigated by hiring one person who does.

    I agree the money may be dead for awhile, but if someone is going to offer to give me a couple of infill land parcels in Shenzhen, I will gladly take them.

    It'll be very interesting to see how they do selling the Wuxi facility.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Your favourite chinese stocks?

    by olssongustav Nov 18, 2013 4:17 AM
    smkros smkros Nov 18, 2013 3:18 PM Flag

    I like ACTS. It trades at a negative enterprise value and management has been buying back as many shares as possible over the last couple of years. On the last two cc's they've mentioned doing a tender offer to buy back a bigger chunk of shares since the daily volume restricts how much they can purchase. The best thing about the company is it seems to be gaining good traction with its new product line of SOC's for the tablet market. The negative is every semi company in the world is targeting the same market so it's way too early to tell if they'll make any money from it. Regardless, the company is worth more than its current enterprise value of -$12 million.

  • Reply to

    This is why this could be a game changer for XIN

    by teknowiz Aug 26, 2013 8:24 PM
    smkros smkros Aug 27, 2013 9:24 AM Flag

    I definitely agree that this adds a tremendous amount of credibility to the company. This should end the "cooking the books" and "cash audit" noise. I'm not sure why so many shareholders are complaining about the $5.48 price since the company has been trading well below that number for the last 5 years. Said another way, TPG is willing to buy 20% of the company at a price that was a 5 year high just two weeks ago.

    Another point to add to your list is that this could and should be a trigger for other institutional investors to make investments in XIN. For as smart as the big money is, there is definitely a follow the herd mentality. Now that TPG has taken a large stake, I would be shocked if other institutional investors don't follow suit. More institutional investment will drive the price up much closer to fair value.

    Less than a year ago XIN was trading for 30% of book value and had a PE of less than 2. It should now be evident to everyone that that deal that looked too good to be true then was actually true. I'm betting the share price will double again in the next twelve months.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • On page 32 of this year's annual report management said that Lenbrook industries more than doubled its orders to DSWL last year. Lenbrook had been a long time customer and the increase in orders was the first tangible evidence of management's ongoing effort to convert existing significant customers to major customers. Lenbrook accounted for 11% of sales last year.

    It's small, but really the first scrap of news that indicates any kind of growth for this company in years.

  • smkros smkros Jul 24, 2013 7:50 AM Flag

    I think some investors are disappointed and nervous because there was no pre-announcement on revenues like last quarter and are selling in case earnings disappoint. No pre-announcement likely signals that revenues will be in line with management guidance, which is 50% YoY growth for the quarter. It's had to be disappointed with that kind of top line growth. I agree this is a good time to add shares.

  • Reply to

    Price Target to Buy?

    by smkros Jun 18, 2013 10:38 AM
    smkros smkros Jun 18, 2013 12:47 PM Flag

    I think the 700k SF project could be worth between $10 and $15 per share once built and stabilized. There is probably an additional $5 of value on top of that from the other assets and the remaining land. However, if I was sole owner of the company I would never want to sell the property.

  • This downward slide since earnings is no surprise and will probably continue. As the share price continues to fall with little hope of a near term catalyst to turn things around, shareholders are feeling significant pain. I'm sure nearly everyone on this board is aware that this stock traded for net cash value at sub $5 just over a year ago and could easily fall that low again.

    However, from a strict asset play the company is getting more and more interesting. My quick and dirty valuation of the company's assets excluding the re-development site is in the low $6 range. At that price I love the idea of getting the Shenzhen land for free. It'll take several years to realize the value, but those with patience will have a high probability of being rewarded.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Really confused...why isn't this at $40?

    by victorcreo Jun 7, 2013 11:38 AM
    smkros smkros Jun 10, 2013 12:45 PM Flag

    You are mostly correct in the description of a VIE, however, XIN is not a VIE. It is a Wholly Foreign Owned Enterprise (WFOE), which means the shareholders ultimately own all of the company's assets.

    The VIE structure is way to get around the Chinese law which restricts foreign investment in some industries. Real Estate is not one of those industries.

    There are still substantial risks, but this is not one of them.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Accounts Receivables look suspicous

    by smkros Jun 3, 2013 2:09 PM
    smkros smkros Jun 4, 2013 9:47 AM Flag

    I understand that working capital would have to increase to support a higher sales volume. However, AR has increased disproportionately to everything else. In 2006 JST had $27m in AR and $19m in inventories. At then end of 2012, they had $147m in AR and only $30m in inventories. JST days sales of inventory has decreased from around 69 days to 42 days, while days sales of AR has increased from 98 days to 212 days during the same time period. In absolute terms AR has increased five fold while inventories have increased 50% and sales have grown 150%. Why have they been able to grow sales so much without having to grow inventories along with the sales?

    Interestingly, inventories did drop 20% between 2011 and 2012, which you would expect when sales decrease. AR on the other hand, increased by another 10%.

  • Since 2006 JST has increased their book value by $130m, but nearly all of it, $120m, is in the form of increased Accounts Receivables. In 2006 they had $83m in sales and $27m in AR, just under 4 months of sales. In 2012 they had 212m in sales and $147m in AR, or over 8 months of sales. They seem to be extending massive amounts of credit to their Chinese customers to promote sales.

    Even with the slow down in Q1, they still did not generate any cash from their AR.

    My fear is that they might have a revenue recognition issue or they are not reserving enough against uncollectable receiveables. I know they went IPO and pay a dividend, but such a large AR balance looks suspicous.

    Thoughts?