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Andatee China Marine Fuel Services Corporation Message Board

socialidiocies 126 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 22, 2016 6:39 PM Member since: Jul 21, 2005
  • Reply to

    3.5 millions 7.60 at Closing ..

    by sidi Jun 17, 2016 4:03 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 17, 2016 6:47 PM Flag

    It could have been pizzas. There were coming out the back today. The pizzas before were going to one of their sub leases.

  • Reply to

    3.5 millions 7.60 at Closing ..

    by sidi Jun 17, 2016 4:03 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 17, 2016 5:52 PM Flag

    They did have what looked like a catered lunch or possibly BBQ today. I saw them sitting under their green covers today and it looked like something. Maybe an internal announcement or perhaps and employee appreciation day.... Who knows. We know what's coming.

  • Reply to

    Takeover imminent

    by birner80 Jun 16, 2016 11:35 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 16, 2016 4:12 PM Flag

    That is a good question. Some time in 2017, supposedly. Someone who's been tracking the conference calls could probably give a narrower time frame. It was suppose to be late 2016 but I think they someone stated it was pushed back to 2017 with no further information.

    I assume that it's from slowed enrollment to push forward RCC and now they've resumed efforts with the cash infusion. On the other more unlikely hand, it could be that they have fantastic results and the OS is out the roof and they're waiting for stat. sig.

  • Reply to

    "May Be Running Out of Time on Cometriq"

    by pmaxx144 Jun 16, 2016 12:15 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 16, 2016 12:57 PM Flag

    I for one believe that the capitalism and greed has pushed science and healthcare treatment faster than any non-profit would. It may seem insensitive but you only make money on results. It is a game, it's a game of greed that feeds on those that need the drug.

    They need each other. We all deal with life and death and in between we try to enhance our status. For those lucky enough to live into old age, the profiteers are there following. I for one will allow the greed to drive innovation faster than any good feeling non-profit that sucks money into misdirected feel good faulty research.

    Putting peoples life savings on the line demands results. Non-profit donations do not. If you want a cure sooner, encourage the greed.

  • Reply to

    Takeover imminent

    by birner80 Jun 16, 2016 11:35 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 16, 2016 12:00 PM Flag

    If it's to happen, I still don't think it will happen until CELESTIAL finishes. It's too close to consider gambling on and would affect the price significantly; that's how people lose their plush job.

  • Reply to

    Back of Napkin Revisited . . .

    by ksjcook Jun 11, 2016 6:43 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 15, 2016 7:11 PM Flag

    Ah, I see.

  • Reply to

    Back of Napkin Revisited . . .

    by ksjcook Jun 11, 2016 6:43 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 15, 2016 10:32 AM Flag

    I'm not sure I'm interpreting correctly here.

    For Renal, you would say it's worth $3B and with it approved that it would pull down 70% of that $3B as revenue? Or 70% of the total revenue which may only be 40%?

    The total revenue will be including second line, third line, etc

  • Reply to

    That 20 day countdown..

    by ulingt Jun 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 15, 2016 10:25 AM Flag

    It is trading days.

  • Reply to

    Clear & Present Danger

    by wilderguide Jun 14, 2016 12:10 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 14, 2016 2:15 PM Flag

    Preclinicals are the best value. As an example, places like Gilead have fully developed biology programs so they can test compounds in house and know exactly what's going on. If they look at a preclinical company, they will quickly have a good idea if they have something good or not. From a value standpoint, buying something in PIII or "near misses" is not introducing a pipeline. There are other reasons to do that and I don't think EXEL should be looking to add value that way. They need a well developed preclinical candidate that they can assess well that will be of value to their pipeline or to a potential buyer they want to target.

  • Reply to

    Clear & Present Danger

    by wilderguide Jun 14, 2016 12:10 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 14, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    That gives me tingles.

  • Reply to

    Clear & Present Danger

    by wilderguide Jun 14, 2016 12:10 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 14, 2016 11:04 AM Flag

    Do you feel they should use their money in a buyback?

  • socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 13, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    Ernie's right. Given no indication of expanding the pipeline, they need to sell. You can only ride on the profits for so long because it takes a long time to develop new drugs and get them approved. A lot of investors sitting on EXEL shares can attest to that. Many companies at this point often buy a new program from an early startup just to shore up their negotiating position.

  • Reply to

    First buy of the day

    by erniewerner Jun 13, 2016 10:03 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 13, 2016 11:42 AM Flag

    2 weeks and counting for EU approval.

  • Reply to

    OT Argos

    by gizmondo123 Jun 13, 2016 8:55 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 13, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    I like the idea...

    Key problems they will have are delivery and mutated cells that escape the local tumor. i.e. if the tumor is not abnormally localized; the disease will continue. It will be an extremely expensive treatment that buys some time and the question is if it buys enough time.

    If they're successful; cost overruns might be a real issue for them. Shorts may want to consider them. I hope they are successful because cancer patients can use it.

    I for one would not put money into it.

  • Reply to

    That 20 day countdown..

    by ulingt Jun 12, 2016 1:04 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 13, 2016 10:12 AM Flag

    " At any time on or after August 15, 2016............... ending on the trading day preceding the date it provides notice "

    It says "ON" August 15; but it has to be within the 30 consecutive days leading up to August 15.

  • Reply to

    Back of Napkin Revisited . . .

    by ksjcook Jun 11, 2016 6:43 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 11, 2016 8:08 PM Flag

    My numbers roughly;
    I think they're pulling near $40M for thyroid.
    The Liver market is $500M+; I think you can easily assume $100M, pushing it, $250M max.
    I was at $400M for RCC; with first line I'd step up to $800 but it could easily exceed $1B and then some if it's good enough. I think the take home pill beats injections.
    I don't consider CRC.
    Include Cobi. $175 for current approval. add what you think for the new study. I doubt it's too much but I've not looked into it.

    With all that, I like to dream bout over $30 and as high as $45 but with tangibles I'm at $16. It's really the first line treatment that pushes the big numbers; Ipsen bought in nearing $1B.

  • socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 11, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    3.5 times is a safe multiplier, higher is likely but it gives the margin to be wrong. I go with 4 because it's no uncommon to see companies sitting there without the intent to sell and I go with 8 as a dreamy estimate because it does happen when they do their own calculations about what they can get out of it.

  • Reply to

    To state the obvious?

    by translationhell Jun 11, 2016 5:34 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 11, 2016 9:57 AM Flag

    I personally think that $12 is cheap now. Considering the possibility of Cabo becoming first line treatment, $12 is too cheap, $20 is cheap. I think we can expect peak sales exceeding $800M for Cabo and over $200 for Cobi if the new PIII is considered seriously. That's without consideration oThat's starts me at over $25 pps. It could be higher since I don't consider CELESTIAL part of that.

  • Reply to

    what's going on?

    by dartgator Jun 9, 2016 10:48 AM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 9, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    Apparently, a death cross followed by the golden cross the next day produces a buffalo spring market.

  • Reply to

    A little Profit Taking

    by itssofine2 Jun 7, 2016 10:14 PM
    socialidiocies socialidiocies Jun 8, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    I 100% think you're... Well, it's hard to keep politics out of it and being a member of a third party, there is one party that is consistently 7.5 times below the real cost of an action.

    The US produces about 2/3 of the marketable drugs in the world. The US produces the best drugs. There is one reason and one reason only that makes it true and that is Capitalism. If profits are reduced and say a government became responsible to develop new drugs, innovation would grind to a crawl and money would be wasted on politicians being improperly swayed by slick snake oil salesmen because politicians don't comprehend enough science. That's how they got suckered into believing in substantially better battery technology despite the physical impossibilities of their beliefs; but they wasted a lot of money on it.

    Pure and simple, we need greedy capitalism to drive innovation to bring cures and treatments faster than they would otherwise come. Those who want to regulated it will only kill more people in the future by limiting how fast we can innovate; so while single payer healthcare systems regulate prices, they take advantage of and use the innovation of Capitalism to try to make us look bad. Take away everything they prescribe that came from the US and see how they like Capitalism then.

    History is repeating and many votes here will enable that.

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