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Demandware, Inc. Message Board

soflaturtle 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 4:47 PM Member since: Jun 20, 2012
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  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 11, 2016 4:47 PM Flag

    If you go back to the Jan posts on the HZNP MB, when HZNP was still over 20, you might find a post from me suggesting that anyone who wanted to continue to hold HZNP shd hedge with BIS. I bot BIS to hedge other bio positions. Made over 20% in Jan alone!

    I think the gering guy is not really in touch with reality, but his position is clear, he believes that HZNP will continue to have good fundies, and will wait out the mess that they are in to get back on track. He lives on a govt pension, has plenty of money, and has no urgency. Most are not in his boat. The mule guy isn't my fav either.

    My problem with both of them is that they have painted a rosy picture for this entire year, luring people in, and so far this yr, HZNP is in the red (LGND is up nearly 20%).

    Of course, there's that corvette idiot, I don't understand the motive for anyone to spend so much time bashing a stock, I assume he's a 15 yr old with nothing to do.

    So I don't do the MB, esp bcse HZNP is not on my list. I just trade it from a TA perspective.

    Again, GL.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 11, 2016 4:03 PM Flag

    Ha! HZNP? I was in that 2 summers ago at 9, out of a lot of it above 35 back in June/Jul 2015, but bot back at 30 or so just before the fateful HRC comments. Didn't bail fast enough...but got out by 22.

    I think that model is toast, thanks to our govt. W\hat they did to PFE/AGN was totalitariantism at it's worst. So HZNP will have problems going fwd. One of their strengths has been execution, so I expect they will do better than the stock will do.

    I have traded very small number of shrs since the drop under 15. If I got up more than a buck, I took that profit, and waited for another entry, which has always come my way.

    But I have no confidence in HZNP. I keep a list of the bios that I consider "investable", and HZNP is not on that list. Anything I buy that isn't on my list is a trade, and I clip profits fast.

    GL with it, if you hold long enough, I am sure you will have a winner.

  • Reply to

    Aptevo spin out

    by soflaturtle Jul 11, 2016 3:37 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 11, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    I shd have mentioned that I have no interest in APVO, dev biotech is a wasteland of investor losses.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jul 11, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    Seems that we will get 1 shr of APVO for every 2 shrs of EBS.

    That implies that EBS, or the investment bank, or both, is putting a mkt cap of $400M on APVO, and $800M on EBS.

    I just can't see that as close to correct. APVO has no rev, and a lot of costs. EBS has all the rev, all the profits. The purpose of this spin out is to focus the investors on EBS's value, without any dilution from the dev biotech part of EBS.

    So what to do? It would certainly be nice to know the price range of the new stock.

    If EBS's stock were to drop by any significan amount, I would prefer to sell before the ex-divi day, and buy back when the dust clears.

    Anyone have any clear thots on this??

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 11, 2016 12:24 PM Flag

    once again, you come up with tidbits I would never see, tks for your hard work.

    In another thread, you implied that you have mostly divi plays and 2 stocks, one LGND.

    Care to share the other one?

    Btw, I also have my fav divi plays, it's been a great year for them, but I wonder how long that can last. COR, a REIT in data center space, is up over 50% YTD, down today on a downgrade, and I suspect other divi play can get hurt in the same way. EQIX is one of my core holdings.

    I also made a ton on buying the depressed O&G pipeline MLPs, look at RRMS. It is still cheap, but not as cheap as it was 3 months ago. I have a list of ones I play around with, all with hi yields. Like ETP.

  • Reply to

    Deal with GILD

    by soflaturtle Jul 8, 2016 9:29 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 8, 2016 1:20 PM Flag

    Your detailed knowledge of LGND's revenue streams always amazes me. Reading your post, I am still don't think there will be enough rev from GILD to make anyone notice, at least for a couple years.

    I got out of LGND at 121 or so, seeing all the issues with the mkt. After the Brexit vote (a vote against totalitarianism...), and the drop, I started to re-buy my shrs. I just wish I had bot more, and faster!

    The key thing I see is that the good news flow, and the continued new business opportunities, for LGND just does not seem to slow.

    I have a lot of stocks that are ST plays on ST developments. LGND is one of my few sure LT stocks, even though I buy and sell it based on mkt movements.

    btw, I have been doing very well with the medical technology area, they are like biotechs, without the risk...

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jul 8, 2016 9:29 AM Flag

    No rev, maybe for years, but a good nameplate for their technology, and another seed for future potential.

  • Reply to

    Buy now ?

    by delayabout Jun 29, 2016 2:33 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 8, 2016 8:53 AM Flag

    next yrs est EPS is 1.44, where do you come up with 2 bucks?

  • Reply to

    Buy now ?

    by delayabout Jun 29, 2016 2:33 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 7, 2016 1:52 PM Flag

    I certainly hope you are wrong on that, they need to keep things going with their current cash flow to fund the products already in the pipeline. Last thing they need, from an investor's view, is a project that will deplete assets and use more cash flow.

    Now, what products that are already approved are there that they could buy? Accretive is the magic word in acquisitions...

    tks for the response and thots.

    ps, I am totally surprised that SUPN has not been bot already, but the US Justice Dept is full of commies, they blocked that PFE/AGN deal in a totally totalitarian way, so maybe companies are afraid to come under that microscope until there's a change of guard.

  • Reply to

    Holding biotechs require patience

    by jd39souza98 Jul 6, 2016 5:19 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 6, 2016 5:27 PM Flag

    While I agree a little, ARIA also has an idiot mgmt team that is mostly concerned about keeping their overpaid jobs.

    They turned down an $11/sh ( so I recall) offer a while back. When you turn down a reasonable offer, all the other suitors go elsewhere.

    No one is going to pay 11/sh now, maybe in 2017. So you need about 6-9 months worth of patience.

    JMO, I have a little, but I am not too optimistic. ARIA, OPK, and a few others just can't seem to get close to a value that seems reasonable.

  • Reply to

    Buy now ?

    by delayabout Jun 29, 2016 2:33 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 5, 2016 4:45 PM Flag

    are you suggesting that SUPN is the acquirer, or the target?

    I would prefer neither, but I am interested in what you are thinking, and why.

    If I had to guess, given that ALXN is having so many problems with Soliris, they need to be doing more acquisitions. They did the RCPT deal almost a year ago, RARE doesn't seem like the right thing, and there aren't a lot of small bios with rare disease products that are already approved (RTRX and CORT are 2 others that come to mind, but SUPN has so much more upside).

  • Reply to

    Shire NDA by end of year

    by culleraa Jun 29, 2016 1:54 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jul 5, 2016 3:26 PM Flag

    I must be out of touch with this SHPG thing. If they submit a NDA by EOY, it usually takes 2-3 months to be accepted (if it is accepted), then a PDUFA date is assigned, which is 6 months if you have priority, and 10 months for everything else.

    So even if SHPG submits by EOY, the earliest I can see rev/royalties is 2018, 18 months from now, and that's an optimistic date, assuming everything goes without a glitch. Which is hardly ever the case with the FDA.

    Have I missed something?

  • Reply to

    law suits

    by benson_steve Jun 30, 2016 3:07 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 30, 2016 3:43 PM Flag

    Dow up 200, Nas up 54, and EBS is in the red. Think about another stock...unless you are ready to take a lot of pain.

    Here's why there's lawsuits. The mgmt suspended guidance when they probably knew that the new RFP was going to be disappointing to investors. There is no way they could not have known, they are a sole source supplier. And still nothing has been said by them.

    Most important, the rev and profit est for EBS are dropping. Stocks have a hard time going up when their expected results keep getting reduced.

  • Reply to

    2017 EPS est reduced

    by soflaturtle Jun 25, 2016 9:38 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 29, 2016 5:44 PM Flag

    2016 average est just reduced, from 1.55 to 1.45, was 1.96 just 60 days ago.

    At 1.45/sh, the current price represents a P/E of about 19. The trend is toward lower EPS est. Zack's data says that when EPS est are reduced, that trend goes for at least 3 months.

    Huge day today, and EBS was down...

DWRE
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