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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

specman4 119 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Oct 20, 2009
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  • Reply to

    JJ from BMRN refused to commit...

    by specman4 Jul 27, 2016 5:56 PM
    specman4 specman4 17 hours ago Flag

    Although I agree, BMRN has the market cap to make these kind of deals. Expect them to be in the game, others will ikely prevail...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    JJ from BMRN refused to commit...

    by specman4 Jul 27, 2016 5:56 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 27, 2016 8:27 PM Flag

    They blew 800M on Prosensa and have nothing. Even their IP is likely worthless. Maybe they really like this space and are looking for a play. He mentioned genetic modification as a future possibility, but that research is too early. Who knows? He seems like a blow hard, so holding back must be necessary.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Interesting that the CEO from BMRN would not use the opportunity offered by Meg to beat up on SRPT. He has always been very outspoken against SRPT and never missed a jab. Could it be that they have interest?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Where is USA Gary?

    by specman4 Jul 25, 2016 6:20 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 26, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    Gary has been a fixture of optimism for nearly 6 years, maybe longer. I too, wish him well. If you're still trolling the pages, come on back with some crazy optimism. We could use some vibes around here.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • specman4 by specman4 Jul 25, 2016 6:20 PM Flag

    Anyone know where or why he is no longer around?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Level

    by marckot Jul 21, 2016 7:53 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 21, 2016 8:32 PM Flag

    I totally get your point and have felt those feelings of dismay and disappointment too many times. I've been a buyer, holder and sometimes seller for 7 years. Although the ride has been rough, the science is solid. We have leadership issues over the years, but I believe Dr. Kay is the right person to push this platform over the line. As for the timing, the FDA has its own sense of "prompt". Let just hope that they get the decision right for these boys. The patient investors will do ok in time.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    The Dream Scenario

    by michaelwebbseattle Jul 19, 2016 12:29 AM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 19, 2016 8:54 AM Flag

    That's a real good dream. You never really know what to expect from the biopsies. These levels could come is very different, that's the scary part. As for the pps projections, I've never even dreamed of those numbers. If there were meaningful news of some EMA progress with an xUS partner bringing real cash and double digit royalties to the table... Add in some great flu news or deal... Maybe $150-$200? Hard to imagine that they would dump everything at once. Unless they decided to flash fry the shorts vs. the slow roast method.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Today will be a wild ride, due to market manipulation to protect the shorts and option games. The decision must be near, but no one should know the outcome. These games are likely intended to steal you shares. Bear raids like this are predictable... Let's hope this one fades quickly.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Enterprise value for SRPT

    by specman4 Jul 11, 2016 1:15 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 13, 2016 10:49 AM Flag

    Other than the naming of the flu asset, what clues make you believe they are trying to out license this asset? It seems like a good idea for any or all of the antiviral assets, but I've seen no clues or comments to suggest they are working on anything but etep.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Enterprise value for SRPT

    by specman4 Jul 11, 2016 1:15 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 11, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    I used 48M shares to reach my values. As for actual profits, it's difficult to know what they may be. COGS are not clear. I recall higher COGS referenced, but scalability will lower these numbers. 15% seems low, but maybe. All of your other possibles across the globe seem generally reasonable. These factors have to be risk-adjusted and will take time and execution. I do agree that a partner or buy-out could happen quickly. I hope they get a fair price and don't give it away. The platform has huge potential!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Enterprise value for SRPT

    by specman4 Jul 11, 2016 1:15 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 11, 2016 2:14 PM Flag

    I still believe the $150 is within reach. Some clarity on their EMA progress would have to add the bullish fuel to get it there. Some M&A activity would quickly find the right value point. I don't expect it will take long for some big shop to make a play. Jazz made their move on CPXX in about 3 weeks. Nice move on that one.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Enterprise value for SRPT

    by specman4 Jul 11, 2016 1:15 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 11, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    Just to be fair... If they do not get AA and are directed to re-file once the confirmatory trials are completed, the stock will fall back to the $6-$9 range. Fundamentally, it may be worth a little more and will likely climb back into the teens as events unfold. A lot can happen over the next 2 years. I would expect a larger company to step in a buy the enterprise at a value price. Maybe $12-$15 if we're lucky. The drop will be rapid and the days will slow down for a long time. For 7 years, I have believed in this science and that has not changed. I've lost confidence at times, mainly in the leadership, but the science is solid. Let's hope the good guys win and the boys get the time that etep may buy them. The future will bring more possibilities from the PPMO side, gene therapy, and other novel approaches. Good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Enterprise value for SRPT

    by specman4 Jul 11, 2016 1:15 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jul 11, 2016 1:28 PM Flag

    Etep in the US should be worth ~700M-900M once peak sales are reached. (Most analysts have offered similar numbers.) The commercialization ramp should be faster than most expect due to the limited number of patients and the registry efforts that the company put into place years ago. (I hope they followed through.) Based on etep alone, the pps should hit $75. It may surpass this number with the squeeze, but fundamentally would fall back and then climb back to this range. (That's about 4-5X on revenues.) Some will say this is conservative, but the risks of commercialization are always higher than most believe. The Street will sell the stock and wait on revenue trajectory to convince them that these peak targets are real in the mid-term. Add some value for the platform... Exon 45 and 53, ID targets, Fast Pass Voucher, Tax credits etc. The enterprise is worth about $100-$110 max. You have to risk adjust the platform. If they company can offer some progress on the EMA filing process, you could add 30-50% to this valuation. (Again... Risk adjusted for regulatory time and unknowns.) Build your plan and good luck.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • For all the "longs" waiting on a positive decision, please read and think through your selling strategy. Like you, I'm "too long" and hope for a positive decision. If we get the AA, you should have a plan for your shares based on real market fundamentals for etep, the platform and the company. It's nearly impossible to predict what the decision and short squeeze will do to the stock price, so picking a target is key. My argument is: Sell nothing below $60. The stock will gap up to the $30s or $40s and the buyers and short covering will step in. Let them work for their shares through the $50s and start picking your targets. I'll add some enterprise projections in another message for your consideration.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Brian Skorney...

    by bionerd51 Jun 24, 2016 12:37 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2016 2:15 PM Flag

    Thanks. I found his name on the search and recall the article. I believe the timing is about right for the data analysis to be complete. I'm sure the company would not sit on the data for long, as some SEC rules on disclosure may apply. (4 days?) I suspect the FDA is aware of these pressures and will reply quickly. Let hope these data confirm dystrophin. These are the boys that seem to be reporting positive function, so we have to believe the two factors are related. If not, there's magic effect in this PMO somewhere. Have a nice weekend.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Brian Skorney...

    by bionerd51 Jun 24, 2016 12:37 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jun 24, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    Forgive me for not recognizing the name... John Carrol? If the company has submitted the data, I would expect an after market communication from the agency. That likely means, we have to wait until Monday for some news or PR. If this goes positive, it would be fun to have an 8:05 PM press release tonight and an early morning conference call on Monday to discuss next steps. Again, If positive, the shorts would have all weekend to fry. Longs and parents could relax a little.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Hold your shares...

    by specman4 Jun 6, 2016 6:33 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jun 23, 2016 8:42 AM Flag

    From the posts and pics on social media, these boys seem to be doing terrific. More importantly, many of these kids testified at the Ad Comm and provided ad hoc examples and even videos of their improvement. These trends and the positive changes made to the exon 45 and 53 trials this week seem to point to a reasonable path forward for the platform. AA has to fall into place to let it all play out. These kids need a victory and this drug platform can buy them the time they need.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    It would be reassuring if Ed would

    by goducks444437 Jun 13, 2016 10:40 PM
    specman4 specman4 Jun 14, 2016 12:03 AM Flag

    I'm pretty sure the senior leadership team is stuck in a trading blackout. Although, I suspect they may not know the final dystrophin data percentages, somebody has some insight into what's needed to hit the mark. This insight would lock them out from any trades. The real interesting situation lies in the 4 day "material rule" for the data. If the FDA does not reply quickly, the company may have to issue a PR before the decision. This creates yet another binary event that could be misread by the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Stop selling into this news. The shorts will pay dearly for your shares down the road... Remember, most of these boys attended the Ad Comm and testified to the positive effects of the drug. The prior P2 data showed measurable dystrophin at 24 weeks and it was higher and more consistent at 48 weeks. The company already has this data and will be quick to format and share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • specman4 specman4 Jun 4, 2016 9:53 PM Flag

    True, but trial size will be addressed by the confirmatory trials. The intent of the AA pathway is to allow smaller P2 trials with meaningful advances in unmet need areas to advance care faster. The confirmatory trials with either validate or not. Time will tell, but this drug should be approved.

    Sentiment: Hold

SRPT
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