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Oncolytics Biotech, Inc. Message Board

starsearcher40 776 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 31, 2015 8:02 AM Member since: Jun 10, 2009
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  • starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Oct 31, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    The case isn't expected to be heard until Sept 2016, with it taking up to 4 months. So lets say it ends December 2016. Then a decision is not expected for another 6 to 18 months. So that puts it out to mid 2017 to mid 2018.

    The company seems very confident that they will win. But CRA, in the process here has already forced the company to pay $229 million to them in advance. I think that's bizarre and a bit draconian, but that's how it works.

    So on to the risk. Personally, I think the downside has been factored in to the price already, and certainly factored into the balance sheet with the payments made to date. The issue is a known quantity...not some surprise out of left field. My personal estimate is 3/4 factored in already on the downside.

    Now on the upside, I don't think a win is factored in at all. Removing this cloud will have a positive effect, and certainly retrieving money paid is a VERY nice plus. The pop in share price would be quite strong I would think.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upside potential worth taking note of

    by starsearcher40 Oct 13, 2015 6:20 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Oct 14, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    I've always been a big fan of the technical side of things, paying a lot of attention to the chart patterns and corresponding points of support and resistance. The chart currently is at a very interesting point. If the stock had been "typical of late", we would have seen more of a selloff after the recent run up. We're not seeing that though. Instead, we're seeing a consolidation at this higher level, with an increasing tightening of the chart. We're also upon crossing key moving averages which is also very important. Now some would say that the charts/averages/support/resistance become self-fullfilling prophecies...people playing off the chart act accordingly, and the chart is painted by those very same people. Yes, this is true, but only to a degree. More importantly, it verifies changing sentiment within the stock which then spurs further buying as well. Personally, I think we're at the point where the change "HAS" happened, but there is still some tentativeness in the stock. People want to believe it's true, but are shy. Fair enough. They've certainly been burned before. But what if it IS true. What if sentiment HAS changed. Well if so, the market will quickly lose that shy side, and the buying will come in strongly. As the 200 day moving average is crossed, another surge will come. If we get close enough, people will buy on the anticipation of the above, and again the stock strengthens.

    For myself, I think we're there on all fronts now. I'm always the first to the party. No problem. Someone has to be, and that's where the big profits get made (if you're right). To my eyes, this party is within a week of really starting to roll. :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'm REALLY happy with how the stock has traded the past 2 days. Why? Well last week the stock moved up nicely with oil, as it has (up or down) over the past many many months....hence the annoyance of this trading like an oil stock. But in the past 2 days, oil has come off 7%-8% from the highs, and CCJ HASN'T. To the contrary, the stock has maintained itself in the range of the highs achieved last week, and is showing definite signs of decoupling from being "an oil stock".

    If true (and I think it may be the case), the stock is showing an internal strength that you can't see in the chart at first glance. But it IS there. If oil does trade higher, I'm sure we'll catch that tailwind, but this will be in combination with the upside pressure now starting to show in the stock. Tailwind plus inherent internal strength has the potential to see significant rises from here.

    There are also other things that will support the rise from here. The first catalyst will be the restart of the second reactor in Japan. Yes, we've all "heard" that this will happen, but the market has a very short memory and also will wait for the news to be reality rather than a "hoped for" event. This 2nd restart is also significant in that it is not just a singular event that the first restart was. It shows Japan is in fact serious about the restarts, and that they really ARE happening. The market will like this, and there should be a nice sentiment boost to the upside in anticipation of the event (Oct 15th), and on the actual announcement that it has in fact happened.

    The other event I'm anticipating is the stock finally crossing the 200 day moving average. (It's been below since last May) There are a LOT of investors who consider this move the significant buy signal, which should give a further boost still. There will be some buying in anticipation of this, and of course as the chart actually crosses over.

    All in, the stock should move up to the $16.00 without to much trouble.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Oct 8, 2015 7:43 AM Flag

    Well if the stock wasn't wrung-out from weak hands in the past year, it certainly was (and then some) with the full-on capitulation last week. But this capitulation was not about THIS stock. It was about the commodity sector in general. Much as we would like to think of CCJ as "just" a uranium stock, it is a commodity stock, and some would even say, an oil stock. That it trades with these other influences is absolutely annoying. It is, at the same time a reality.

    So where to from here? Personally, I love the capitulation. It signified, finally, the bottom. The past week has reflected that, with the stock naturally beginning the re-correction process. This accounts for some of the bounce back up...the stock is now THAT dry. But I do not think that this "re-correction back up" is near done. The broader re-correction of the stock should take it up to the $18.00 area without too much trouble from here. The point I'm making is some people might think "oh, I missed the bounce". Not so. The bounce, the-recorrection up, has only started.

    Nor do I think that the $18.00 level is anything more than a short-term recorrection marker. I do expect the stock to now have the capacity to move significantly higher still:

    1) Without rehashing all the Ux price expectations, there is significant reason to now believe that the price will in fact be going up with supply tightening. We have been waiting for this longer than we thought we would have to. Patience. The time is now here.

    2) The Japan news of re-starts will not only fuel demand for uranium, but more importantly, it will assist to wake-up the sector. Sentiment is a powerful motivator, and will work strongly in our favour.

    3) The headwinds that were oil and commodities are no longer there. Instead, they will become tailwinds. We know the strength of this, and have seen it as it was working against us. It will be equally powerful to the upside.

    Simply put, the stock looks to be a screaming buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Sep 8, 2015 8:57 PM Flag

    This has been a long long time coming, probably a year or two more than anyone would have thought, but I think it is now safe to say that we are at the dawn of this sector finally waking up. The Ux prices are showing some definite signs of life, and there is just an awesome amount of upside potential here.

    What I REALLY liked was the way CCJ traded today. It showed strength throughout the day, and finally showed the ability to trade on it's own...and NOT just be an energy stock that essentially moved with oil.

    The way the trading was going through today, it looks as if some significant positions are now started to be accumulated....not retail...more trading as if funds were starting to come in. This bodes very well for the stock, and the price rise should continue nicely over the next several months. As the broader public starts to take notice, there is then the potential for a second significant rise. (The broader public is always late to the party and misses the more significant rise that "smarter" money found way earlier.)

    For the record, I'm a trader by design, and rarely take positions for any length of time. In this case though, I make the exception. The risk/reward profile at this stage is just far far too inviting to ignore, and if the trading I saw going through today is an indication of what's to come, then I have no problem expecting significant gains across the next 2 to 6 months.

    Best to all, whatever your timeframe is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Sep 7, 2015 9:16 PM Flag

    While the real shortfall may come "officially" next year, the market is always a forward looking instrument, typically by about 6 months. If we're seeing the first indications of the price starting to tick upwards, I doubt we'll have to wait until next year for the real fun to begin.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Aug 20, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    For those looking for the short term bounce, I would say the point is now there. The overall market is in the toilet today, oil price just dropped again overnight, and the sentiment is about as bad as it gets. All in though, ECA is only off a few pennies today and/or up slightly, depending on the moment. Short term bottom may in fact be in.

  • Reply to

    Soros's Cameco holding increased 44%

    by camecoisa17 Aug 14, 2015 5:39 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Aug 14, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    Wow! A very VERY strong endorsement. Nice to see!

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Aug 13, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    Personally, as attractive as the price is compared to a year ago, I wouldn't dream of touching this stock. The fact is, the company is in big trouble and in big debt. Their timing was completely horrific for building new rigs all over the place, and the company is now extremely vulnerable with not a realistic end in sight to the pain given oil is most likely in a multi year slump. Personally, I'd be surprised if the are able to survive. So for those looking for some entry point, I do wish you well. Just far too risky here for me to wake up one morning with nothing.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I watched the stock trade most of the day yesterday, and I have to say I'm thrilled with the way the stock responded. The overall market was down over 200 points, and after some initial re-testing, the stock climbed steadily almost all afternoon. Personally, I love days like this. It's a great opportunity to get a glimpse of the internal strength of the stock in the face of a very strong headwind. The stock responded extremely well, and I'm thrilled. This kind of test shows the stock moving significantly higher from current levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Aug 11, 2015 5:01 AM Flag

    Yes the plant has restarted. From BBC news an hour ago, they started it at 1:30 GMT.

  • Reply to

    Uranium deficit, a must read

    by dr_dr_detroit Aug 10, 2015 4:11 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Aug 10, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    I think this scenario is actually quite possible. It's been a very long time since I've seen a sector both so beaten down, and at the same time ,so overlooked. The recovery in uranium has certainly taken far longer than anyone would have imagined. People tried playing for a bounce off of the first hit after Fukashima and they got their heads handed to them...and then some. The recovery has actually taken so long now that some of the drop can be credited to either disgust and/or fatigue. I don't blame people.

    Ironically though, here we are at the precipice of the nuclear price thaw, with demand set to move on re-starts in Japan and a lot of nuclear capacity (need) being built as we speak in India and China. Then add in the number of years it will take to ramp up any new mine given the extended drought. To my eyes, it is literally now the perfect storm of events that will lead to that explosive upside from current levels. The stock is vastly oversold. With the re-start of the first Japan reactor, I think the sector will wake up strongly, if only on the news/sentiment. Fresh eyes will again come to the stock, and see it for the bargain it currently is. From my stance, the stock should recover nicely to the mid 20's with that being practically a no-brainer in the short term. From there, we'll see as the price of uranium ramps up.

    Doesn't happen often, but this stock right now is the absolute best play I know in every time frame available; the short term, medium term and the long term. With ALL of these buyers about to come back in, I'm anticipating some quite strong upside moves akin to today and more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Aug 6, 2015 9:10 PM Flag

    The stock (on the longer term chart )has now triple bottomed, and is at a beautiful point to be buying. Add in then the overly low price of uranium (oversupply is drying up nicely), a number of smaller producers/projects shuttered, Japan coming back online, and India/China building reactors....simply put there are too many things that point to a very strong upside from here.

    Outside of trading this stock several times just on technical charts, I've never taken a long term position...until now. Over the past 3 days, I'm now fully in, and very heavily so.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Today's price rise and volume

    by starsearcher40 Jul 13, 2015 3:36 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Jul 13, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    One other component that I forgot to mention is that virus based cancer treatmentsare really starting to become all the buzz. Perhaps it has been in the scientific community for some time, but I would say it is now on the precipice of catching the imagination of the mainstream populace. If so, that would be an additional very strong boost to the share price, in combination out on it's own.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Jul 13, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    The price jump and volume today are definitely eye-catching. The stock does have a history of some notable share activity prior to a news release, but not of this magnitude and sustained strength (intraday comment). Oncy does a reasonable job of keeping their own news reasonably well contained (reasonable, far from perfect.) If the jump here is news based, them I suspect it is not only bigger news but also involving other "participants" beyond just the company itself...hence the wider circulation of possible news to come.

    Another possibility is that those powers who have been suppressing the stock are now decidedly going to move the stock back up now that shares have been accumulated. This release of the relentless downward pressure becomes an event unto itself, with this "news"also circulating and others jumping on the upside bandwagon.

    Either of these scenarios will do wonders for the share price.Done well in combination with each other and the share price moves explosively higher.(making the Nasdaq pricing issue be seen fur what it was...a negative mechanism employed to help suppress the price.

    We'll see what comes :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Now THAT is the kind of news release that will wake things up! I know it's been a very frustrating ride with many news releases that seemed to "suggest" that ONCY was moving in the right direction and had a remarkable product. It's a much longer, much more complicated, much more involved path from lab to sales than I think most of us here would have ever guessed. But this release shows that what we have always hoped for may in fact be true. Does this mark the corner now turned for ONCY? I would suggest it will. The numbers in that release are just too strong to suggest otherwise.

  • Reply to

    Interesting drop today

    by g72521 Mar 27, 2015 5:08 PM
    starsearcher40 starsearcher40 Mar 27, 2015 6:49 PM Flag

    Yes, that was an ugly drop today, and more than could ever be explained by any general market move. Something started working its way to the street today, and it obviously isn't good given they haste to the exits. I'm sure the rest of the market will find out in the next few days.

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Feb 2, 2015 10:20 PM Flag

    I agree that the bottom was put in (again), and that there should be some otherwise natural recovery. But the nature of the trading today was different than that. It had a strength and intent that was difficult to pass of as one of the usual/common/expected reasons. To the contrary, the stock traded more as if there was a rumour in the market. Personally, I haven't heard what that would be, but then as retail investors the only smart position is to consider yourself last to know. The only ability we do have is to see the rumour show up in the trade activity, and to see it for what it appears to be, a marked break from the "usual" day to day trading of the stock.
    We'll see what comes. Maybe something there. To my eyes, this stock now moves to the top of the watch list. The activity today is more than just a little "curious".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Jul 9, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    I don't post on this Board too often as I've found following the V2 board to be a much more fruitful discussion in general. And even there, I've been particularly silent as the trading patterns were relentlessly dismal for a very long time. Those patterns have now changed, and it is worth noting. So here then, a rare foray back into the jungle of the "regular" ONCY Board:

    Here are the posts (2 in total) that I've made on the V2 board:

    1) PRE-Market comment on share price:

    Just a comment for the fun of it. Based on the technical indicators that I use, I'm anticipating a particularly strong upside day for Onc/y We'll see what comes..

    2) Additional Commentary (mid-morning):

    There is some clutter in the $1.80 level (ONCY), but I don't think this is going to pose any problem as far as resistance goes. Within the context of a badly beaten down stock, the duration of the downswing, the dry nature of the way the stock is trading, and impending news, I see no issue whatsoever with the stock moving up back to the $2.40 level in the very near term. Personally, I still think even that price is vastly undervalued for what the share price should be (all things considered), but it at least serves my own eyes as a short term price target.

    As for the way the stock is behaving so today, I like everything I'm seeing. -All indications of a healthy run up to come.

  • starsearcher40 by starsearcher40 Mar 21, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    6) A lot of what I've said above paints a pretty bleak picture of the market as a whole. It is what it is (and it is all that...and worse!), and as a trader I would have a lot harder time making an income if the markets weren't that dirty. While I also live at the bottom of the knowledge food chain, I CAN see the activity in the market of those much higher up the food chain and ride their coat-tails.

    Personally, "investing" scares the heck out of me and I don't really know how people do it. ONC/Y has been for me an extremely rare "investment", despite some of the more obvious signs to trade the heck out of it, up or down. Why invest in it then? Partly as an exercise in self discipline (self torture), but far more because I actually do strongly believe that in the long term this investment will pay out a LOT of money. For me to to be in a stock for a couple of years is unheard of. In my world, "long term" usually means a couple of days at most. Hopefully as this "investment" goes, the timeline is no longer too long, and the payoff soon to come will make the wait worth the time it has taken. I believe (strongly) this will be the case.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ONCY
0.330.00(0.00%)Nov 4 4:00 PMEST