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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

stephenmcleod2004 1901 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 19, 2015 4:34 PM Member since: Oct 14, 2008
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  • Reply to

    I think this is close to bottoming.

    by stephenmcleod2004 Feb 17, 2015 1:55 AM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Feb 19, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    I'll give them a look. It looks like it found support early at pivot point S2.
    I bought a hundred shares so I will keep a closer eye on it. I'm considering 900 more shares. I usually.

    I do think it will fall hard- but not for another 9-12 months. First channeling sideways so a couple 10% swings to make money on.

    Good feedback! Thanks.

  • stephenmcleod2004 by stephenmcleod2004 Feb 17, 2015 1:55 AM Flag

    All we need is a heavy volume capitulation day. Perhaps at the 200 day moving average.

  • stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Jul 10, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    There is a short term risk of a drop back to the 100ema (~$125) after gold completes its move up to the 300ema (~$129) but this is forming up to be a classic 100ema/300ema bullish signal for the next major bull rally in gold.

    Once the 100 and 300 actually cross-- there will be a final fall back to the 300 - about a month after the 100 crosses the 300. Current likely targets for that fall are from 131 and 134. So, if you were aggressive, you could get an extra 6 to 9 dollars out of this move. Or you could sell 134 puts when they get cheap and not exit your position.

    From there it's going to be off to the races up to over 150. The P&F charts have been forecasting 166 for a while and they almost always undershoot. I'll be using a mixture of long and options. Trying for a little leverage but also long to avoid having to worry about timing so much.

  • Reply to

    Dollar Advances - Gold set for Massive Correction

    by wise4us Jul 3, 2014 10:01 AM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Jul 7, 2014 11:22 PM Flag

    Gold and GLD are at the bottom of the move started in october of 2012. All the averages are converging. Once the 100ema crosses the 300ema from below- the price will move up quickly. While there will be corrections and falls back down to the 300ema (if you want to play that kind of thing on a weekly time scale) gold is headed back over 1600 and gld is headed back over 150.

  • stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Jan 21, 2014 2:58 PM Flag

    Sysco also has a very successful in house brand (just like kroger, safeway etc.).
    It's not imperial quality but it's less expensive.

    I agree with the parent poster that restaurant food has become much more generic over the last decade. Not sure if sysco is the reason. I suspect more of the general tendency of all retailers to only carry the three top selling brands out of a possible selection of 20 brands. You see this everywhere- not just food (even tools, crafting supplies, clothing).
    Less selection.
    Less variety.

    Leading to a very similar experience and making it challenging to differentiate.

  • Reply to

    Exiting Deck.

    by stephenmcleod2004 Sep 3, 2013 6:55 PM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Sep 12, 2013 12:54 PM Flag

    Investopedia explains 'Wash Sale'
    The effectiveness of this strategy has been greatly diminished with the implementation of the IRS 30-day wash rule, where a taxpayer cannot recognize a loss on an investment if that investment was purchased within 30 days of sale (before or after sale).

    Definition of 'Wash Sale'
    A transaction where an investor sells a losing security to claim a capital loss, only to repurchase it again for a bargain. Wash sales are a method investors employ to try and recognize a tax loss without actually changing their position.

  • Reply to

    Exiting Deck.

    by stephenmcleod2004 Sep 3, 2013 6:55 PM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Sep 12, 2013 12:52 PM Flag

    Okay, the $82 target is still in place and I think this downtrend will get an entry around $55 at S1. Probably at the rising 300dma so maybe more like $54.

    Concerns about the overall market rolling over and taking deck down but really don't think that happens until spring or even fall 2014. October could be challenging emotionally tho.

    Thanks for the tip on the wash sale. I will read up them. I got hit a couple times last year for the first time after 15 years of trading and apparently only remembered the 30 day rule out of it.

    It's been a good month. Earned more than I spent even net of taxes

    Been in and out of Deck since last October. It's getting close to the point that I walk away.

    I appreciate your input.

  • Reply to

    Exiting Deck.

    by stephenmcleod2004 Sep 3, 2013 6:55 PM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Sep 4, 2013 2:44 AM Flag

    I appreciate your polite feedback. I might reenter if the wedge breaks down. They are often short term. But It's a green trade and I don't want to deal with a wash sale so I'm probably just out for all of september.

  • stephenmcleod2004 by stephenmcleod2004 Sep 3, 2013 6:55 PM Flag

    I dislike exiting because the potential is there for $75.

    But.. the last few weeks have formed a classic "Rising Wedge". I've taken my profits and I'm going to watch from the sidelines. If it takes off- grats to thos who stick it out.

    Entered SPY last friday for a 2-6 week bounce of what I think was the low last thursday.

  • Reply to

    Gold will never get above $1450

    by gotgoldies10 Aug 26, 2013 1:29 AM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Aug 26, 2013 2:48 AM Flag

    It's overbought mid term- it will pause a couple months at $1450. But the pivot point is at $1600; resistance is above there at 1740 and 1870. I think $1600 is going to be magnetic and the price will rise to there.

    After that - who knows- Gold is in an overall downtrend right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see six months messing around 1600 and then the new trend is established up or down.

    We are likely to be having a tremendous bear market in the equity market by then so gold could be safety play (and drop sharply in late 2014/early 2015 when the bear ends.

  • stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Jun 6, 2013 3:02 PM Flag

    Look at the "insider transactions" on the "summary" tab.
    Insider Transactions Reported - Last Two Years
    Date Insider Shares Type Transaction Value*
    May 27, 2013 HOPE JAMES DOfficer 5,000 Direct Sale at $35.23 per share. 176,150
    May 22, 2013 DELANEY WILLIAM J IIIOfficer 1,018,799 Direct Option Exercise at $23.36 - $33.39 per share. N/A
    May 22, 2013 DELANEY WILLIAM J IIIOfficer 1,018,799 Direct Sale at $34.67 per share. 35,321,761
    May 21, 2013 WARD JACKIE MDirector 10,531 Direct Disposition (Non Open Market) at $35.08 per share. 369,427
    May 21, 2013 WARD JACKIE MDirector 11,500 Direct Option Exercise at $31.73 - $32.3 per share. 368,0002
    May 19, 2013 GOLDEN JONATHANDirector 11,500 Direct Sale at $35.04 per share. 402,960
    May 19, 2013 GOLDEN JONATHANDirector 11,500 Direct Option Exercise at $31.73 - $32.3 per share. 368,0002
    May 14, 2013 DAY WILLIAM B.Officer 13,528 Indirect Option Exercise at $24.99 - $33.39 per share. N/A
    May 14, 2013 KREIDLER ROBERT C.Officer 80,697 Direct Sale at $35.04 per share. 2,827,622
    May 14, 2013 KREIDLER ROBERT C.Officer 80,697 Direct Option Exercise at $24.38 - $27.44 per share. 2,091,0002

  • stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Apr 27, 2013 12:39 PM Flag

    The price fell all the way to the main pivot point support. Next pivot support is way down at 14.
    The moving average support is at 43 and 48 dollars. I expect it to move sideways from here until september and then move up to as high as 78. Moving sideways could include buying opportunities down at 43 to 48. However- if it breaks below 43, then I'd exit at a loss because there isn't any support below there for a long way.
    If it does get to 78, then it could go higher in 2014 but in a very painful volatile way suited to swing traders with 20 to 30% moves taking about 6 weeks from trough to peak. However- the bull is due for a close sometime in 2014 at the latest (a bull into 2015 would be a rare historically long event) and that bear market might pull everything down.

  • stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Apr 14, 2013 11:43 PM Flag

    Well, as the other post says, a ton of shorts and also a lot of the big players have 5% or more.
    But will this really just go all the way to 75 without a dip?

    I still have a small deck holding which is doing great but I was hoping to put a lot more in on a pullback.
    The current sma(100) is at 42.90.
    The current ema(100) is at 45.81.
    At this point in the timeline with both the 300dma and the 200dma now indicating an uptrend, the best reentry would be P1 which is at about 52.
    With upside potential of 78 (or even a remote shot at 117) , you might just want to slowly nibble at it and not try to time it so much.
    However, there is normally a market wide pullback after april 15th and before the end of may so that might provide the opportunity.

  • I had expected this to have a sharp run up and then fall back to the 100dma due to the way it behaved in 2008/2009 bullish crossing. In this case, the sharp run up hasn't fallen back. The movement is really unlikely but none the less, it's happening, and I've missed out on about 20% after exiting with a 20% profit.
    This move isn't even inside the 2nd or 3rd deviation bollinger bands any more.
    Grats to all retain greens!

  • stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Mar 7, 2013 8:24 PM Flag

    Look at the june to september of 2009 chart. Did pretty much the same thing.
    I think it's going to go back to the 100dma sometime in the next 60 days and that's going to be the entry point for the rise after the 100dma and the 300dma cross.
    The 100dma is up to 41.74 so 42.00 is probably a more reasonable entry. EMA is only up to 41.07 tho.
    For now- I'd still wait for a better entry.

  • stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Mar 1, 2013 7:30 PM Flag

    Your 43 week exponential (what I use for the 300dma) is at 46 which has been broken.
    Back in 2009 when this same setup occurred, the price fell to the 14 week moving average and then went sideways for almost 2 months before heading up.
    It won't be exactly the same of course.
    But, the price does fall like last time, then the 100dma bullish crossing of the 300dma is the setup for a big move investment vs trade).
    I could see it getting to the 53.53 pivot point before doing that but it seems to high. A lot of people take a profit at 20%.

  • And I'm posting again to say deck will see the 100dma one more time- below 42 but maybe not quite 41 again (100dma is about 40.50 and rising). It's probably going to break the 300dma briefly before falling.

    And then there is a very good shot at 78 by december.

    Good luck to all on green trades.

  • Reply to

    technically looks close to bottom

    by bobs1016 Feb 23, 2013 12:04 AM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Feb 26, 2013 4:31 AM Flag

    It looks oversold but not at a bottom yet.
    I've seen stocks with similar setups continue down even further.
    I'd wait until the macd 12,26,9 histogram portion started getting shorter.
    And maybe until the daily RSI condition crossed the signal line.

  • Reply to

    Okay DECK off script so I'm exiting

    by stephenmcleod2004 Feb 21, 2013 2:29 PM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Feb 21, 2013 2:31 PM Flag

    It think it just partially had bad timing because a market drop was due. However- it's outperforming to the downside. And past 7% below the high.

  • Reply to

    Okay DECK off script so I'm exiting

    by stephenmcleod2004 Feb 21, 2013 2:29 PM
    stephenmcleod2004 stephenmcleod2004 Feb 21, 2013 2:30 PM Flag

    This is going to suck if it is massive manipulation by all those major players who reported going over 5% holdings over the last couple weeks.

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