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Silvercorp Metals Inc. Message Board

stockdude13 32 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 10, 2016 5:45 PM Member since: Jan 4, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Lynas price inpact.

    by contraryj Jul 10, 2016 1:21 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 10, 2016 5:45 PM Flag

    "I still believe that supply and demand have a far greater effect on prices than what people think government actions might cause."

    In long term pricing of rare earths, this true what you say. But you also say recent price rise and fall was all about supply which can not be true.

    What's interesting this year in the last 6 months, the following metals have seen dramatic price gains. All have been in oversupply for a long while with exception of zinc.

    6 month base metals price gains:.
    Aluminium....+13.84%
    Copper.........+7.57%
    Lead............+12.32%
    Nickel..........+24.44%
    Zinc.............+42.64

    Fantastic gains for an oversupplied metals market in mists of a world recession. Any guess to what the rest of the year brings? Do you think that these price gains have anything to do with supply decreasing because I can not see it.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 10, 2016 5:25 PM Flag

    "Now I am not sure how long but my memory is you have been saying that Lynas turns the corner very soon for a very long time and the sock keeps going down minus a few spikes."

    Lets use your 18 month time period then. In the last 18 months you say Lynas investors doomed, the SP lost -11% in the last 18 months. That is 7.2 cents Jan 2015 to 6.4 cents July 2016. I would not call a -11% loss a wipe out of stockholders.

    Lynas certainly turned a corner on production output over this time period. Even been able to reduce costs of debt by meeting agreed production targets. 12 months ago the SP was about 3 cents you said it was the end for stockholders, but today it's up about 100% since your prediction.

    contraryj • Jun 24, 2015 6:25 AM
    "If the company does not release a statement soon saying they do not know why the stock is dropping and stating some facts that discount the rumors I would say the end, I have been expecting, may be near."

    When I saw this then, I was a big buyer of the stock and I believe Toly was also.

    contraryj • Nov 29, 2015 5:48 PM
    "Tell you what if Lynas doesn't go to 0.04 before August I will pay your way to Peru. Are you willing to cover other side? You see a bright future for REEs, I do to, I just see it several years away and lots of pain before."

    You have 3 more weeks to win this bet with Toly, but the stock is 60% above your target price before August. Do you believe after the Q4 report Lynas goes straight to 4 cents. Yes or No?

  • stockdude13 by stockdude13 Jul 8, 2016 6:17 PM Flag

    Hell of a run up. I think it's going much higher by year end.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 8, 2016 6:08 PM Flag

    "Take it private flushing debt and stock holders."

    Too Funny. You have been saying this for how long now? Years? How many more years? I have my money bet that the SP climbs the wall of threats that you point out, but these threats never happen.

    Japan does not want to source any REEs out of China. This has created a special relationship between Lynas shareholders with Japan. Amanda would be out of a lot of her own money from her invested 8 cent price point if what you say is true. I'm confident that Amanda does not even remotely think her shares are going to be wiped out like you say.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    REE Prices

    by contraryj Jul 7, 2016 9:59 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 8, 2016 5:30 PM Flag

    "...restricted supply in June and when the tax rate dropped prices dropped when the manufactures started to unwind this stored product. I said this to your June post, It happened like I said ( the swings were bigger than I expected) and now I will add the government program had nothing to do with it except in your mind."

    First off , government stockpile announcement has everything to do with recent price and fall. It was a $1.4 billion stockpile announcement. This likely caused speculative buying in the short term. Short term price movements are not only about the supply situation. There is no report that proves what you are saying at all. You making a assumption, a guess to make it sound like you know what you are talking about. I always knew one very important fact about you: you don't take time to read, research, or post facts. You make sh^% up.

    "This year, China plans to add about 20000 tons to it's rare earth stockpiles. The six major suppliers are to keep 5000 to government- designated warehouses; Beijing is to purchase the other 15000 tons from the suppliers"

  • Reply to

    REE Prices

    by contraryj Jul 7, 2016 9:59 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 8, 2016 5:12 PM Flag

    "First they stopped stock piling just two days ago. Listen to what your article says."

    The article say nothing about stopping just 2 days ago. What dope are you smoking. You are not reading and interpreting the information correctly. Read this quote from the article:

    "In early JUNE, Beijing held an auction for nine types of rare-earth metals, but bids came in below the production costs of China's six major suppliers."

    June, not July. Or maybe the dope made you forget it is July now?

    The stockpiling program announced was a $1.4 billion, which buys way more than 20K rare earths. Obviously not all this year and in fact prices did rise on the very notion that it was going to happen. The price rise and fall will be reflected in the Q4 report.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    REE Prices

    by contraryj Jul 7, 2016 9:59 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 8, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    Your quote "this price drop is caused by stockpiling that took place waiting for the tax break and now this REE is hitting market"

    Wrong. The price drop is because China suspended stockpiling, not stockpilied rees hitting the market. Bogus claim. Did you read about China's stockpilie suspension at all?? It is much like when QE stops, the market stops going up. Stockpiling is stimulus to the ree market, when it stops, prices come back down in an oversupplied market. I don't believe you have the capacity to understand this. I do think other readers do though.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    REE Prices

    by contraryj Jul 7, 2016 9:59 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 8, 2016 11:27 AM Flag

    The tax code change does not mention anything about stockpilied rees "hits the market" you are just guessing here buddy. You must be some insider from China. Wow!!!! Why pretend to know something when you don't? Why embarrass yourself like this? Show some facts, reports anything to back this up. There is not one single report to back up this claim. I asked you to back it up and you still can't as per usual. It's just so sad to see idiots like you desperately attempting to manipulate people.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    REE Prices

    by contraryj Jul 7, 2016 9:59 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 7, 2016 5:40 PM Flag

    "..this price drop is caused by stockpiling that took place waiting for the tax break and now this REE is hitting market,"

    Explain please why china would buy rare earths and stockpile then have them "hit the market" immediately after buying them. Can you even realize how stupid this is to waste money buying them in the first place? Isn't the point of stockpiling to reduce supply and boost prices?

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 7, 2016 5:27 PM Flag

    The Nikkei Asian Review has an article posted today about the stockpiling suspension but I can't post it here.

    In the article, the reason why the stockpiling was suspended is because suppliers were asking 20%-30% higher prices than what the gov't was willing to accept. There is now a suspension but stockpiling has not ended for the year. China plans to add 20K tons to stockpiles. It does not appear that any significant stockpiling actually has taken place yet. In early June China held an auction but bids came in below supplier production costs. This should tell anyone that China suppliers are in deep pain and there is NO competition with Lynas in pricing.

  • I tried to post an article that came out today today but Yahoo deleted it. China has postponed the stockpiling, the reason that prices fell in recent weeks. Google search China postpones rare earth purchase plan to understand what's going on.

  • Reply to

    REE Prices

    by contraryj Jul 7, 2016 9:59 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 7, 2016 1:45 PM Flag

    "..this price drop is caused by stockpiling that took place waiting for the tax break and now this REE is hitting market,"

    TOTAL BS. Seriously, you pulled this gem straight out of your #$%$. There no way back up this claim either. Let's see if you can actually post some legitimate proof to newly stockpiled REE is now "hitting the market". lol!

    Al the very least I post factual information, nothing made up. I don't in any way try to trick people like you do.

  • Reply to

    SVMLF facts

    by biospeculator2014 Jul 5, 2016 3:53 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 6, 2016 2:45 PM Flag

    I call BS on everything you say. You exposed yourself.

  • Reply to

    SVMLF facts

    by biospeculator2014 Jul 5, 2016 3:53 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 6, 2016 2:09 PM Flag

    "As for ownership I GAURANTEE you I own more SVMLF than this total board combined."

    Seriously, how old are you kid? SVMLF performance is not determined by volume from the US. SVMLF is up 491% this year from the OTC exchange. Show us where it's lagging in performance compared to other junior silver miners please. SVM does perfectly fine without special representation.

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 6, 2016 11:02 AM Flag

    Why should anyone be looking forward to your awful attempt to analyze. Please, it's full of so many holes, wrong numbers and ego. Funny that your so called "friends" never listened to you and never will.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the hit today

    by jpust47573 Jul 6, 2016 10:38 AM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 6, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    2/10 spread is .81. Dividends for the less hearty mREITs could very well be cut. I wouldn't mind a move to $12.80 to buy more.

  • Reply to

    SVMLF facts

    by biospeculator2014 Jul 5, 2016 3:53 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 6, 2016 10:40 AM Flag

    Wrong. SVM has always been part of the GDXJ although weighting changes dramatically. SVM on the TSX never takes a backseat to any other version of the stock, weather it's OTC or not. Volumes make make no difference in performance at all. To think the the proxy version drives the performance is complete BS.

  • Reply to

    SVMLF facts

    by biospeculator2014 Jul 5, 2016 3:53 PM
    stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 6, 2016 10:28 AM Flag

    Yup. 401k plans suck and primarily designed for mutual funds, not for stock pickers.

  • stockdude13 by stockdude13 Jul 6, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    Ex date: 7/12
    Pay date: 7/22

  • stockdude13 stockdude13 Jul 5, 2016 8:41 PM Flag

    Lynas just announced they produced 1156 tonnes Nd/Pr for Q4. This is very good news. SP reaction is favorable. Looking forward to the Q4 report later this month. 2016 will be another great year for Lynas investors.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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