ANGI happened to catch my attention on Friday as $22 is a pretty critical level. It looked for sure that the bottom was in and going to start a trend, but the whipsaw leaves us with some uncertainty as it sold off through the rest of the day with the market. For my readers on Stockineer I decided to do a write up and post a chart so I thought I'd share the summary here.
"Look at all these parallel trading channels in the chart below. This gives you very clear entry and exit locations for your trades.
$22 is the breakdown of the head and shoulders pattern, which gives a price target of $16. That is conveniently located at the lowest trendline drawn. Whether or not the recent low will hold or price will drift to the lower trendline is anyone's guess. The best we can do is follow the channels for our trading signals. Of particular interest is the whipsaw on Friday where price was really rockin' only to pull back to retest the neckline leaving shareholders unsure if the breakout was for real or if it is really about to signal failure.
I hate to make guesses, but if I were to take a shot, I'd say that price will rise through the week and test the upper trendline. I say this because the market is at support and I suspect it'll get a rise tomorrow, not breaking support. The weekly stochastics are oversold and have crossed over. MACD has also turned upward. Of course price has to cooperate. This is an interesting chart and will be useful if you want to take some trades on ANGI. If tomorrow's action is too rich for your blood, leave it. Wait until there's more certainty."
Good luck guys. The chart that I'm referencing is on Stockineer, which I obviously can't post here. I hope this helps understand how ANGI trades.
Interesting stuff Sert. I also want to point out that the technical picture is starting to look good again. After tapering down in a consolidation region over the last few weeks, price has now come to a major support line, connecting the valleys in June, August and today's low. Combine this with oversold indicators and it's really ripe for another leg up.
So we've got a couple of bullish pieces of evidence here. Thanks for the post.
For those guys still following the charts. I just posted another on Stockineer a few minutes ago. It's part of the original article and is essentially a running documentation. Here's the text summary but obviously I can't post the chart here:
"YHOO has developed into two parallel trading channels. Prices tend to move in ratios to the previous move and in this case, it’s a good example. Price is now hitting its head on $30 resistance and a breakout should send it back into the upper channel. However, my main concern at this point is the negative divergence that’s been going on for quite some time. Couple that with indicators reaching resistance and it appears that a pullback may be in the cards before a breakout can take root. Of course, follow the price action. A breakout is a breakout. Check out the chart below to see what I’m talking about."
I hope this helps. YHOO's been on a really nice run so congrats guys. Hold onto those profits :-)
Hey guys, I received a request from a reader to do a quick technical look at THI's chart and technicals. I obviously can't post the annotated chart here, but I can paste the quick summary to hopefully aid in your decisions:
"The technical details and discussion are annotated on the chart below. I’m most concerned about the negative divergences occurring. Looking back, almost every major peak was negatively diverging and it’s potentially setting up to be another. Price has risen during these negatively diverging periods so it’s not necessarily a reason to exit immediately, although no one would argue if you were to do so. It’s merely a suggestion to keep a rising stop to protect from a correction. I’ve drawn the trading channel so you can understand the risk/reward. Price is right in the middle so it’s an even ratio, but take a look at the internal trendline I’ve drawn. This could very well represent a location for price to stall, especially with other indicators confirming the RSI trendline resistance, like CCI (not shown, but you could plot it). Also, stochastics are overbought putting better odds in a pullback than a continued run. So that’s my two cents…good luck with your choices."
I posted whole article and chart on Stockineer if you find this sort of thing of value in your investing. Good luck guys....just sharing my two cents.
Hey guys, I just finished another article on gold as we're nearing another critical resistance level. It's posted on Stockineer. Here's an excerpt from the article, but obviously I can't post the charts here. I hope this helps some people:
"Since the last update in late June where gold had hit our price target, it’s done nothing but go up! Not too shabby, eh? However, the mood is changing a little as we’re running into a world of resistance. I’d like to point out the concurrent SAR between the price of gold and the S&P 500. As the S&P sits on major support, Gold sits on major resistance. Coincidence? I suspect that if the market breaks low, gold will simultaneously break high, making it a good hedge. The downside is that there’s a world of resistance above making gains tough, even if it breaks out. I’d still probably take the trade of an upward breakout just as a hedge in case really bad things happen! Here’s how I am interpreting the charts to show you why I’m saying these things…
The 6-month chart shows what looks to be a developing inverse head and shoulders. This only shows part of the story so I wanted to take a look at a multi year chart to see if overhead resistance is nearby. In this chart, the 200 MA is sitting at 1500 which makes for only a small $75/oz trade before the first major resistance."
The charts are on Stockineer which should make this description a little more obvious. Good luck guys.
Todd, it's true...there is almost always a bull and a bear case. However, sometimes the charts read more bullish than others. In this situation, the price is congested in a mix of support and resistance levels which often means it'll trade between those for some time before it breaks one way or the other. For example, when gold broke below $1500, it was a very bearish case and a bullish one couldn't really be made based on the technicals. It was an easy short, one which we talked about. It's that easy money we're looking to make on trades...or at least ones of high confidence, certainly nothing is a sure bet...unfortunately. The point I'm making on KGC is there's no clear bet as the market is trying to figure it out, but the first step to watching the support and resistance levels is knowing where there are which is what I'm showing my readers. Fundamentals are great, but technicals give you the buy/sell signal.
I've never heard of Larry, and I'm not big on "predictions" unless the come from a breakdown of a pattern. My price target from my April 12th article for $GOLD was $1250 -$1150, with a current low of $1179 you can see how patterns can give targets. I don't see another breakdown at the moment that suggests another move down. Thanks for the input Todd.
On Stockineer the topic has come up about Larry Edelson and his predictions on gold and KGC. I'm not personally familiar with Larry or his work, but I decided to take a look at the technical scene and to be honest, there's two cases to be made with KGC, a bullish and a bearish one. Of course, time frame is important in your trading goals. I've posted both charts with discussion on Stockineer so folks can decide what they think is best for their money...buy, sell or watch. If you're looking to buy, I'd personally wait to break above the resistance of a stubborn downward trendline to break. Price touched it just the other day and reversed below $6, which I didn't really like from a bullish point of view. At any rate, I just thought I'd share what we're looking at with the boards which may have some further insight to their positions.
It looks like the board here are pretty vacant, but for those that are hanging around I've posted a trade setup for STLD on Stockineer. It has a 3-year chart showing the major resistance at $16 as well as the momentum indicators showing bullishness. Several of us have purchased shares on the $16 breakout, especially as the steel industry has been pretty hot lately. The price move is looking very good as long as it holds the $16 mark. Good luck guys, this stock has been in a trading zone for years. This breakout could start a nice upward trend.
I had a reader request GSV, which was otherwise a stock that was not on my radar. It is now, but too bad I missed the breakout. I just posted the annotated chart and commentary to Stockineer, but I figured I'd share the summary here with a little copy and paste job....good luck guys, this one's pretty hot.
GSVC is rocking with a recent breakout. Paulos is looking for some opinions…read on to hear mine. It sounds like the interest in this company is a result of its large Twitter investment.
Earnings were just announced which caused this recent breakout, but how far will it go? If you take a look at the chart I’ve posted below, I’m suspicious of a 100% retrace of the massive drop a year ago. In just a month GSVC shed 50% of its value and continued to drop over the next several months. Things look a little rosier now and a very quick retrace is possible. Often you’ll see patterns where the right side of the pattern looks like the left. This already happened once for this stock, so why not twice? That’d be very profitable very quickly.
However, I have my doubts as a result of the indicators because they are at extreme overbought conditions. They’ve never been higher. When this happens, you’ll often see a correction which will rectify these indicators. A flag patten is one such way where the indicators can be rectified and the climb can continue. Bulkowski discusses “earnings flags” in one of his books. These are flags that occur after a quick price as a result of earnings. This would fit that situation nicely, but it’s only a hunch right now. I’m going to keep an eye on this one because it could be rather profitable. I’m going to hold off taking a position until I get a better trade setup. I missed the breakout so I’ll wait for a potential flag even though I may risk missing the trade. I’d really like to see those indicators come down before I’d take a position. I’m also a little fearful of the market right now.
Thanks again guys. Did yahoo stop sending alerts when a reply was made to posts because I no longer see the alerts at the top of the screen. I came back to see if I got any replies and I saw a whole screen of what looked like spammers. Jeeze, someone must be short and it's driving them crazy. Glad to be on board with you guys.
Hey guys, I'm new to your boards and am looking to see what you think of all the insider buying. I'm a technical trader and blogger that wrote up a trade alert for OPK several weeks ago on Stockineer. The alert was based on an inverse head and shoulders with a moving average cross over. Since then several of us have made the trade and we've been quite happy with OPK. Since we trade technically, we spend more time looking at charts than news, although with price near all time highs and a lot of insider buying, we're getting suspicious of something in the works over there. One reader in particular is asking what I think about the insiders so I thought I'd come here to see what you guys think.
I had a price target of $7.80-$8.20 for our swing trade, but if this thing breaks above the recent high, it's a blue sky breakout and there's little resistance at that point with a likely run to around $9 over a couple of months.
Hey guys, I haven't posted to your boards yet, but a reader alerted me to EMC. When I did a little investigation into the company, it turns out that I used to live minutes from EMC, and I pass it regularly off rt 100. We're technical traders so the reader alerted us because of a potential breakout of a complex head and shoulders. There are multiple shoulders on each side of the head as the price is bouncing from it. I've just written it up as a trade alert and posted the commentary and chart on Stockineer. We're looking for a close above the downward trendline to take positions. I don't like that earnings are coming up very soon, as taking positions just before earnings can be a little risky because it's a point event driven by news, not natural buying and selling, supply/demand where it is where the technicals are useful. At any rate, the trade setup is posted, but I figured I give you guys a heads up on these boards that we may be joining you soon :-) Good luck guys. If price breaks upward our price target is $28.
I was really hoping that big red candle did not go lower than yesterday. The outside day is not a good sign! Also, draw your trendline from May 20th and you'll see the support is still holding.
Those are good points Joe. Unfortunately the market has taught us expensive lessons about buying and holding. Although for most people it's really a good idea because the noise is too much for some folks and it scares them just before the clouds clear....look at ACAD yesterday and then today. What a difference. Realistically, now can a company be worth 7% more at the beginning of the day then at the end with no supporting news, etc. But that's what the market is all about today. It's about profits and losses, no longer about the company you are buying.
I hated that move today. I did buy shares. We're looking for a close above 10.15 to call it a breakout. It shot up very quickly and easily as happens on most breakouts, but for whatever reason there was massive selling pressure, which came on high volume. I don't see any news that would suggest a rationale. Officially there still is no breakout because the close was below the resistance which did not lead the MACD to cross over...that would be a confirming buy signal on a stock that's about to start trending. I bought shares on what looked like every bit of a breakout assuming the close would be high...very dissappointed at the massive intraday swing. I'd sold off all my swing trades on May 21-23rd and I've been sitting in cash waiting for the S&P to find support before taking more trades. I was not thrilled at this whipsaw, or fake move up. Overall, I still like the base that this stock has formed over the year. It is consolidating after a nice run up. I'm looking for it to break upward from the consolidation and start trending again, not trading like it is now. That's what I'm looking for when I take swing trades...to grab the trending periods and then exit when the price target nears and it goes back into trading. Good luck guys. I felt a little pain today myself...not much you can do on days like this.
Thanks for the welcome. Glad to hear your take on the fundamentals. When the two approaches agree, we could have some profits ahead.
The stock broke low out of the triangle. In fact, it did so on a big gap showing how important that support was. As a trader, you have to wait for the action to occur and not take a preemptive position. In this case, because support was broken a short position was appropriate. At the current point, it's the 200 MA that is supporting price.