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Isis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

stockmktgenius 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 7, 2016 8:03 AM Member since: Oct 12, 1999
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  • The Tocqueville Gold Fund
    Dear Fellow Shareholder, Over the past six months, through April 30, 2016, a significant change in market attitude toward gold stocks and gold in general has taken place. During the six-month period, gold rose 13.1% finishing at U.S. $1,290.50 per oz., while the Tocqueville Gold Fund (the “Fund”) returned 53.38%. Comparatively, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver index increased 81.13%. Gold now appears to have recovered from a bottoming out process that occurred during the second half of 2015, after trending downward for four years. The markets’ assessment of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate posture weighed on gold at the end of 2015 but gold recovered as markets concluded that after the December increase another rate increase was unlikely, especially as the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan continued to ease. As the 2016 calendar year got underway, global investors were most concerned that Chinese markets and global economic fundamentals would deteriorate, while oil prices continued a downward trend that began in 2014. During the period, we eliminated or reduced a number of positions, which we thought offered less return potential. We sold Continental Gold and Primero Mining as they faced permitting and tax issues, respectively. Those concerns are likely to impede their stock price performance. Iamgold, Kinross and New Gold were also eliminated as we assessed their capital allocation strategy as less than advantageous to shareholder value creation over the long-term. We reduced the Gold Fields position, as its South African mine continues to struggle and this has become a larger concern for the company’s longterm success. We sold small positions in Cia de Minas Buenaventura and Silvercrest as we determined that such small weightings in those two names are better utilized in several new positions for the Fund—TMAC Resources, NuLegacy Gold, Hochschild Mining and Richmont Mines. We added to Alamos Gold as the pr

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TGLDX's Advantage

    by stockmktgenius Jun 16, 2016 8:21 AM
    stockmktgenius stockmktgenius Jul 2, 2016 1:48 AM Flag

    I'm somewhat disappointed today that GDX went up 5% while TGLDX went up just 3%. But Tocqueville is made up 14% of gold, and has no holdings in some risky countries, so the results are bound to be different, and probably less. I remember before the 2000 crash that everybody was talking about how risk and reward go together- the more risk the more reward, as though that were a sure thing. Those people got absolutely crushed when risky stocks crashed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stockmktgenius by stockmktgenius Jun 16, 2016 8:21 AM Flag

    I think Tocqueville's big advantage is that they invest a lot in smaller gold mines. Just as it's easier for a local store to double than it is for Walmart, it's easier for a small miner to double. Now the problem is that most small miners don't make money- and never will. Which is why I don't invest in GDXJ, the small miner index. Tocqueville solves this problem by sending geologists out to examine small miners, see that they in fact are standing on a viable amount of gold. See that the operation is well run. Also, for the sake of safety, they have 10%+ in real gold. So TGLDX isn't beating the index, but on a risk-adjusted basis, it's doing terrific. Comments?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stockmktgenius by stockmktgenius Jun 4, 2016 6:13 AM Flag

    GDX up 88%, but TGLDX is safer. I think it has 14% of it's money in gold or gold ETFs. Also, the manager has the money in miners mostly in Canada, the US and Australia, places where the mines are not going to be confiscated. Both of these make for lower returns in an up market, but safer returns. That's a trade-off I'm happy to make.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    vicl bid for am is 3 cents right now:

    by jetmanbash Oct 9, 2015 12:52 AM
    stockmktgenius stockmktgenius Oct 9, 2015 3:25 AM Flag

    Dark/ sack/ Trudy / etc. must be getting paid BOTH to trash ISIS and to promote VICL.

  • Reply to

    This board is totally highjacked.

    by gregbrady1971 Oct 7, 2015 6:30 AM
    stockmktgenius stockmktgenius Oct 7, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    Dark was fired by ISIS years ago, and he's one of these crazy guys who never moved on. He's been here maybe 15 years, him and nyc, Trudy, all his other aliases. Writing the same nonsense about ISIS being toxic. And pumping VICL, despite it having crashed and ruined anyone who listened to him.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stockmktgenius stockmktgenius Sep 21, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Why dark chose this loser drug Vical to promote, I can't imagine. For those of you who don't know, he was fired by Isis and has been employed for years by a hedge fund to spread lies about Isis, to scare you into selling or not buying. He has various aliases here, Zach, where's the drug, Trudy, nyc. Me, I put them all on Ignore, as they have nothing to contribute. Jet, on the other hand, is a Detroit doctor who is a legitimate investor and has a LOT to say. If I'm you, I'd just click on his name and read all his posts. Most all the rest of the posts here are garbage.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • stockmktgenius stockmktgenius Sep 1, 2015 6:10 AM Flag

    You are 100% correct! dark and Trudy and all the rest of the gang are hired by hedge fund and mutual fund managers to get people to sell cheap (to them!) or, better yet, to never invest. Who would spend YEARS posting lies here if you weren't being paid? All this nonsense about how Isis is "toxic" etc. is b.s. they've been pedaling for years- and to some extent it works. But look at the left hand column of the Isis page and you'll see that Fidelity has over ONE BILLION DOLLARS invested in Isis. Bet they wouldn't do that if they weren't super confident. And look at the news- Isis is partners and has been paid 100s of millions of dollars by the likes of Glaxo Smith Kline, Biogen, Astra Zeneca, and Pfizer. Bet they wouldn't spend that sort of money unless they really believe in Isis' technology. dark and all the rest are like dogs barking as the wagon train passes. I would encourage everyone to put them all on Ignore and stop wasting time with them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • With thanks to mdcelts for the link, I think some of you will enjoy reading the part where DoctoRx compares ISIS and ALNY. ISIS is now around 50 and ALNY 102. ALNY at $8B is valued 1/3rd more than ISIS ($6B). Yet he argues that Isis is actually the far more valuable stock. The clip:

    Isis (NASDAQ:ISIS) and Alnylam (NASDAQ:ALNY)

    These are two similar companies in that they are platform "antisense" companies, though that term is not quite as accurate as it used to be. These companies develop injectable products that modulate protein synthesis by interacting with RNA. Since I have twice reviewed ISIS recently, only to watch the shares collapse over a few months' period from $70 to below $42 during the recent panic, the reason to mention them both together is to point out how different two similar companies appear to be in the eyes of the Street. This is a core part of my investment thesis in biotech - i.e., that it really and truly is a stockpicker's sector. But in these momo times, strange things have happened with relative valuations. After all, ALNY and ISIS both have pipelines. ALNY has, after adjusting for net cash, about a $2.5 B greater market cap.

    ISIS has much greater revenues, though, as estimated $280 million this year versus $46 million for ALNY. ISIS has a much broader pipeline than ALNY, ranging from late-stage products to preclinical drugs. ALNY's only late-stage drug is for the same related diseases that comprise just one of ISIS's efforts; each is in partnership with a Big Pharma company for their drugs.

    On purely financial terms, ALNY sells for about 30X its projected 2016 net loss per share. ISIS is "cheaper," selling for about 50X its projected 2016 net less per share. ALNY trades for about 150X projected 2016 revenues per share; ISIS trades for about 20X projected 2016 revenues per share.

    ISIS has two other advantages over ALNY. One is a marketed, FDA- and EU-approved drug, Kynamro, for a very rare type of high (google to finish article)

  • stockmktgenius stockmktgenius Aug 18, 2015 5:30 AM Flag

    This is HUGE because once word gets out, pressure will build on the FDA to stop the test and release the drug to all SMA children. This will be wonderful for the children, and of course that should be first in our minds. When this has happened in the past with other medicine, it has been huge for the companies involved- their stock has SHOT UP. My belief is this will happen here, but if it doesn't, I believe the drug will still be approved in 2017 and will be huge then.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stockmktgenius by stockmktgenius Aug 15, 2015 12:48 AM Flag

    I haven't been on this board for some months, but see Dark, his new alias Shecky, and all the rest are still controlling this board. Their purpose, what they're paid to do, is to get you to NOT invest, or to get you to sell. I advise you to put them all on Ignore, as they have nothing to say and dialogue with them is basically impossible.

    Dark's handbook
    .

    I only come to this board every season or so just to repost this, which is the truth about dark/ prunejuice and his other aliases:

    This, I think, is the best post I ever made on this site. It tells the truth about dark and the other paid bashers who've ruined this board.

    BASHERS HANDBOOK

    Bashers' Tactics from the Bashers Handbook
    1: Remember, BASHERS NEVER BASH A BAD STOCK.
    2: BASHERS ALWAYS BRING UP OLD NEWS THAT YOU HAVE HEARD MANY TIMES.
    3: BASHERS POST MANY TIMES A DAY.
    4: BASHERS WILL LIE TO YOUR FACE.
    5: BASHERS KNOW YOU CAN'T VERIFY THEIR STATEMENTS.
    6: BASHERS PLAY ON YOUR LACK OF KNOWLEDGE.
    7: BASHERS PLAY ON YOUR LACK OF PATIENCE.
    8: BASHERS BRING THE PRICE DOWN. That is the basher's job. The truth is not important. Lies are the norm. Post continuously on the board every day. They are trying to hit the newbies visiting the board. They are trying to wear out the longs on the board. They do whatever it takes to wear the longs out.

    How to deal with Bashers?

    IGNORE THEM FOLKS...how bashers are paid:

    When you REPLY to bashers you give them an opportunity to earn 5-7 bucks. A basher will attempt to milk three to five replies per post at one to two dollars each. This way the basher spreads negative influence to as many stockholders as possible. A basher will create this discussion thread because it takes less time reading more messages than is necessary. This ultimately allows the basher more time to post and make money.
    NEVER ENGAGE A BASHER; if you do so then YOU BECOME THE BASHER,S AID! Read the news, do your own homework and make your own decisions

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • stockmktgenius stockmktgenius Aug 14, 2015 6:46 AM Flag

    Sorry but they wouldn't let me post more. You can google to get the rest of the article, plus 26 comments so far.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • DoctoRx

    Special situations, growth at reasonable price, value, micro-cap

    Isis Pharma Stock Drops On Good News: Re-Evaluating The Bull Case

    Aug. 13, 2015 1:56 PM ET | 17 comments | About: Isis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ISIS), Includes: ALNY, AMGN, AZN, BIIB, CELG, GILD, GSK, JNJ, PFE, QURE, REGN, SNY, VRTX

    Disclosure: I am/we are long ISIS,BIIB,GILD,REGN, VRTX. (More
    Summary
    •Isis Pharmaceuticals is a largely development-stage biotech with many promising business attributes.
    •The stock has had large moves the past few years.
    •Recently ISIS has plunged even as substantive news flow keeps appearing that buttresses the bull, not the bear case.
    •A review of recent news, progress in quantitatively valuing the stock, and ideas about the stock's movement are presented herein.
    •The conclusion remains that ISIS appears to be attractive for growth stock investors; while risky, ISIS is not close to a bubble valuation.

    Background

    I introduced coverage of Isis Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ISIS) on June 12 when the stock was $67, much higher than its current close Wednesday around $52. Yet the news has been almost unremittingly good. Apparently it was all priced in, and profit-taking toward its May 2014 lows below $24 has been in force. ISIS had tripled in about a year, and apparently it was ready to correct.

    This article assumes knowledge of the company, such as was provided in the June article. In addition, the comments thread to that article was simply amazing, for which I remain quite grateful. If you want to learn a lot about ISIS, please consider reading the comments, several of which are from people who are experts in the field.

    This article first updates the positive news since that article appeared, then begins the difficult process of valuing the stock.

    ISIS is especially difficult to value for a number of reasons. These reason

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ISIS
57.560.00(0.00%)Dec 21 4:00 PMEST