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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

stocktracker000 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2016 6:37 PM Member since: Jun 15, 2001
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  • stocktracker000 stocktracker000 Jul 1, 2016 6:37 PM Flag

    You already bought above $3. Condolences, you should have waited. It is always worth the wait 3-4 weeks before the earnings see where PPS trading. GNW was on down trend and this week was a back breaker for most longs since 1Q earnings pop. That's when you step up and buy some. Buy some 2nd half of next week and then more following weeks running up to 2Q earnings if PPS is steady or drops further...

    Have good feeling about the earnings with current PPS. If it was trading above 4 or 5, I would be nervous but disaster is priced in and don't see any disaster in the near future. Brexit is not a disaster as media whip up to be. Most likely it will get rescinded or tone down by british parliament that it is immaterial and insignificant over next couple of years. Great move by current PM Cameron on stepping down and forcing new PM to negotiate. He actually bought time for Britain to rethink and change the course for better by planning to step down for new PM. Most likely he will get vote of confidence in the fall and be the new PM...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Time is at hand to start accumulation. Anything under 3 is a gift...

    GNW has significant assets to work with and worst of LTC fiasco is over. 2Q earnings should be good with most of the write-offs gone. Look at the enormous cash flow generated by the business, GNW projected to earn 0.82/sh for the year. That's about 410M for 2016. Don't get concern about write-offs which comes out of BV, currently around $28/sh. Couple billion write offs only equate to 4-5/sh in reduction in BV. Still heavily discounted...

    Look to buy second half of the week after MM's, hedge funds, and market manipulators all try to drive PPS down before the earnings in late July. That's when it is time to buy. It's so easy that a caveman can do it!!!!

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • by institutional funds. Not worth changing portfolio position based on window dressing, but children will be children and repeat same mistakes over and over...

    Valuation wise GNW is very strong buy, but exec mgmt. wise it's a sell (i.e. zero investor confidence). Juts replacing current CEO or exiting LTC could triple PPS in a heart beat then again current CEO has gotten this for last 3 years. Not that the main page on GNW is LTC which has been leading money loser for last 3 years. Some people just don't get it. CEO has promised profits in two years so LTC should generate tons of cash next year if his predictions are right. Highly unlikely with increase in health care cost over taking inflation by mile...

    MI business is gem and that alone warrant high PPS but it is being held down by LTC concerns or fears...

    Simple matter of executing buy low and sell high...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

  • Take your profits north of 4 where you are comfortable and don't get greedy...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Usually acting is never the real thing. That's why they call it acting. Bit disappointing since expectation was that some big wig from the street was going to be named to right the ship. Nothing against the new CEO, but expectation was high on the street...

    Looks like PPS is going to languish between 4-5 for foreseeable future until something significant happens like blowout earnings...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Look at the price action over last week. It's been bouncing around 3.6-3.8 and someone is buying...

    Monday morning was short attack in the morning by MMs, hedge funds and day traders trying to trigger margin selling or week longs to sell, but with not much success PPS rebounded....

    Brexit is non issue for CMRX since company has plenty cash to the tune of $6.98/sh. There should not be any issue with funding for next couple of years. Looking forward to a positive results in one of clinical trials this year...

    Buy some below 4 and keep it to 5-10% of your portfolio. Do not margin...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Buy some under 4 and hold for couple months and you will be handsomely rewarded...

    PPS is trading over $3 below cash position of $6.84. Only buy small and keep it to 5-10% of your portfolio...

    Warning! Do not margin since you will get margin call and sell before PPS rebounds to nice profit...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This happens so many times that it is not even funny. As the saying goes, history repeats itself. In this case PPS repeats itself but not immediately. It may take couples days or a week before you see same pattern...

    PPS should rebound above 4 tomorrow morning and same sellers who sold in last 30 min will be jumping in and buying at above 4 and driving it up looking for a quick buck...

    Good Luck to al land do your due diligence always...

  • It's bit strange that they waited till the day of the review. Drug still has merits since it is still better in terms of abuse properties than anything out there...

    Looks like it will be 1-2 months of delay since FDA will need time to reschedule. Hopefully, amendment strengthens the application. Don't see any other reason..

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • FDA decision on usually Thursday PM, so KMPH would be halted on Thursday before the decision...

    KMPH high risk high reward stock. Although considering PPS there is not much down side fro here. Plenty of upside to over 20 if things go right and abuse-deterrent labeling gets approved...

    Checkout the company website, it has good description of the drug. IT's does not dissolve in water or blood and needs to be taken orally to be effective. Opioid is locked at molecular level, so it can not be administered intravenously either. Wonder if there is anything out there that even comes close. It has to be much better than other opioids that are easily abused. Better to have label for this product and have some deterrence under wide use and limit the abuse somewhat than have no abuse deterrent at all. You got to start somewhere to stem the opioid abuse...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 Jun 3, 2016 5:27 PM Flag

    After 4 days above 4.75. Looks like margin selling is starting to kick in. Can you also say Margin F00LS?..

    If you are retail investor (mom & pop) then never margin and you will lose less and stay in the game to learn. If you must look at options if they are not too pricey, You only have to put 5-10% of the amount and you only lose what option money you used. IF you have margin account then you could buy otions so take this approach and you will never get a margin call...

    It still looks good after run up from 3.5 and consolidating here...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 Jun 1, 2016 6:32 PM Flag

    LC is probably interviewing CEO candidates in June and probably announce it in July. With short covering and some news we could reach high 5's. Looks like there is tons of June options calls. 122K @ 4 and 63k at 5. Since each option is for 100 shares, that works out to nearly 12M shares that need to be provided to option call owners...

    Just when LC business was starting to be interesting the CEO scandal broke, Too bad for the company but great for those who bought and covered below 4. Looks like we will not see below 5 in comings days...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    im so stupid

    by yifasu2 May 31, 2016 4:03 PM
    stocktracker000 stocktracker000 May 31, 2016 5:22 PM Flag

    Next time look into call options. Usually you could get the same effect for 5-10% of the money and worst case you lose 100% of money to buy the options...

    Otherwise don't margin since you will get margin calls most of time and lose out on big gains when PPS turns. Look at 1 month chart and you will see accumulation. Trend is your friend. PPS should get back above 5 and close the gap to 7 in next couple of month when credible CEO is announced...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

  • It's shame about what happened with 22M. Only 3M had date changed and loan was bought back from Jeffereies and sold to another buyer at par. CEO got fired for blatantly lying to the board when board knew about his investment ties. Mots of the incident was smoke and mirrors and no real substance to it then temporary scare providing excellent opportunity for shorts to cover...

    Considering decent earnings and growth outlook, PPS should be trading above 8 by mow. It will be slow grind up the slippery slope with a pop when CEO with credibility is named...

    Not worth shorting since 1Q earnings were positive and LC is making money and growing..

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • All the bad news out. Grand jury subpoena is for CEO and 3 managers that were let go. They may go to jail but highly doubt it. In terms of LC, it is none event other than small fine at the end and addition of strong internal control to satisfy SEC & DOJ. Gov't doe not want to destroy a business that is serving the citizens of US. Look how long it took subprime crisis to be prosecuted and fines levied (~6-7 years). Here we are talking 22M, subprime was in the billions....

    It kind makes me laugh after subprime crisis with Goldman, Jefferies and other brokers (now know as wall street banks) that these guys point figure at LC for wrong doing. It's no different than pot calling kettle black....

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • #1. Never margin stock with PPS downward trend for last 6-12 months
    (It usually indicates a bad company or mgmt. and not worth taking a chance)
    #2. Never margin stock hitting new low of year.
    (typically, selling wil continue for next couple more weeks at least thus not worth margining)

    Finally, if both rules are met, don't even think about margining...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 May 11, 2016 4:37 PM Flag

    1. Audit committee audited all loans in 1Q 2016 and have found no other errors or mistake other than 22M.
    2. BOD took swift and prompt action to closeout the case by removing CEO and 3 senior managers.
    3. BOD could have made excuses and shoved the matter under the rug, but hey didn't. A mark of good and ctive BOD.
    4. All kinds article circulating with fictitious numbers about company finances. Check SEC filings and you will get the real numbers.
    5. Anyone who sold this week sold with big loss and sold in panic
    6. 22M is immaterial in terms of financial numbers
    7. BOD took severe remedial action to bolster LC's reputation.

    Don't fall for the hype and check your facts...

    Wonder if J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch or others are interested in stepping in to fill gaps left by Goldman and Jefferies since LC cleaned house by letting CEO and others go. It should be excellent opportunity since new rules are in place and risk is much less after 22M fiasco...

    Buy small and spread you buys and keep it to 5-10% of your portfolio...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • stocktracker000 by stocktracker000 May 5, 2016 5:58 PM Flag

    Get the 5-day chart and posted it on your wall as reminder what margin selling looks like. PPS stayed up on first two days with pop and then it deteriorated in 3,4 and 5th (today). If PPS stayed up 3 days then it would have taken another day for margin selling to complete...

    Retail investors that means you mom & pop investors listen and never margin, you will not be able to ride through the down turns to survive the margin call. After you sold out, PPS will rise back with nice profit. Instead look for margin selling and buy at end or buy at beginning of short squeeze. BTW short squeeze is harder to detect...

    Supply of oil will go down over the year and demand will continue to rise. Just matter of time before demand catches up with supply. There should be a significant drop at CUshing, OK storage one week and that should be a god indicator of inflection point. Get ready for 60 oil. Saudi's and OPEC are all in trouble with PPS oil forever capped by shale fracking...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Not so fast. This year is starting to look like last year. CEO pulls rabbit out of the hat again! Didn't GNW have good earnings in 1Q last year and then have more losses for 2, 3 and 4Q. Looks like it is setup for shareholder meeting in June. Just get by shareholder meeting and then make adjustment later in the 2nd half...

    Ride the momentum for while and then dump before 2Q earnings for profit...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Still SDRL looks great. Way undervalued and good earnings for 2016. Of course it is no where near where it was couple of years ago. But, then it was trading at much much higher PPS. Around 1.1B in the bank and another 200M from recent sale of asset and another 800M in earnings coming for this year, so balance should be 2B by end of year and lenders should be confident about SDRL when oil PPS trades above 60 by end of year. Credit line has been rolled over till end of year and things are looking up...

    Like Ackman says about Valeant, I wish I could buy more SDRL...

    Good Luck to all and do your due diligence always...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

DVAX
15.22-0.59(-3.73%)1:31 PMEDT