Z, there is no assurance of anything. What I say means nothing, what you say means nothing. We will see what happens. I am as guilty as anyone I say the same things over and over as do you. Neither one of us are adding to knowledge to the board. How many times are we going to have the same argument.
Below is what JP Morgan says about Juno. I write this only as an example. Who knows if Car-t will ultimately work or what we have will. It's all speculation. I am betting on our SAB maybe I'm wrong. A double for us is only 600-700 mil company. A deal will do that. If no deal no phase 2 because no money.
"The company is taking steps to get ROCKET restarted ASAP by going back to pre-conditioning with cyclophosphamide alone. On the one hand, this does appear to be isolated to JCAR 015, and management is confident it won't have a collateral impact on the other programs," JPMorgan wrote in an analyst note earlier today.
However, this further highlights how early this technology is in its evolution, the firm said.
"We'd be more comfortable if the mechanism behind the neurotoxicity was better understood. Bottom line, we still have high hopes for JUNO's CAR-T platform, but given the near/medium term uncertainty, we see better opportunities elsewhere in our universe," JPMorgan said.
By the way the above comments by JPM no more valuable then what you or I say.
I wish you the best of luck, but over and out from me.
Z, I write to much on this board already but my last comments on the subject. Verastem may very well have made a great discovery but a valuation of $47 million tells me that it has a pretty long way to go before it is recognized as such, Ultimately none of us know which breakthrough will ultimately win out. There will be something new tomorrow and another the day after that. Hopefully we will have our moment in the sun.
Juno may be an over reaction, they will change their study the fda will say resume and the stock should go up, But if we have a small sample that works and causes many to say that car-t is the answer and gives the stock a multi billion $ valuation, then when a small sample fails for whatever reason the opposite should hold true. The company loses a billion on valuation as many ask does this really work? Is it cost effective? Why did Juno give such a large dose of that chemotheropy product? Do they know what they are doing?
Please forget the bioline story, that was five years ago in a very early stage. There has only been one partnership in the last three years that is with Bayer and Bayer on the way to clinical trials. The focus of the company completely different.
Cgen HAS to do a deal with in a year. They have no choice. If that deal is for a decent amount of money with BMY or MRK the stock will go up substantially. They know this better then I. I believe they will do it. Nothing else matters, not how well they give presentations, or what milestones they hit and announcements they make. They must do a deal. We will know soon enough.
Z, can't jump to your conclusion. Versatem has a valuation of 47 million not what one would consider a breakthrough valuation.
Also check out Juno this morning at least what I expect to happen this morning. We are a long way from knowing which companies win and lose. Cgen will be in the mix. We will know in the short term (less than a year) if we are a substantial player.
Steven, I don't disagree. A number of companies presenting are in the cannabis industry not exactly a place we would find the investors we are looking for. On the other hand his friend and supporter George Gilder also presenting so maybe an excuse to go out west and catch up with old friends.
Hopefully he will do something worthwhile for us while out there as well.
If you get a chance there was a Bloomberg article yesterday by Max Nison entitled Bristol-Myers brings back one that got away. It gives Bristol's philosophy on deal making. Seems like a perfect fit for us and with Eliot Seigal in our corner one would think they would want to partner with us at a decent price. We'll find out within the year I imagine.
On website, I won't comment on benefit but I guess a bit more recognition. I think he went last year did not have effect one or the other on stock. Maybe a better story this year or at least a chance to see what's going on in California.
Martin Gerstel, Chairman of the Board, to present at The MoneyShow
San Francisco, CA
Aug 23, 2016 - Aug 25, 2016
SBH, don't know if you noticed but there was a new early stage development deal announced today by Xencor (xncr) and novartis. It called for 150 mil upfront, hard to tell how much Xencor gave up but market reaction certainly positive.
Also I read a bloomberg article on Gilead titled Gilead's slow road is the right road by Max Nisen. Not sure why but I thought relevant to us.
Anyway always seems to go up so slowly and down do fast. Assuming the market does not do a complete tanking here I believe that cgen will be out of this trading range by end of year. Why not!
Loncar is not a large index but will get us some recognition. It's a positive.
LENEXA, Kan. --(BUSINESS WIRE)
Loncar Investments, LLC today announced the result of the semi-annual rebalance and reconstitution of the Loncar Cancer Immunotherapy Index, a group of the top 30 companies developing cancer immunotherapy treatments and discovering new ways to use the body’s immune system to fight cancer.
The index committee has added BeiGene (Nasdaq: BGNE) and Compugen (Nasdaq: CGEN) to the index.
These additions replace Celyad (Nasdaq: CYAD) and Immune Design (Nasdaq: IMDZ).
“Transformative drug development is happening all over the world,” said Brad Loncar, Chairman of the index committee. “We are pleased to welcome our first components to the index from China and Israel and look forward to following their contributions to the field of cancer immunotherapy.”
The index committee has further decided to institute a minimum equity liquidity threshold of 50,000 shares or $500,000 in average daily trading volume for any index component going forward.
Effective this week, all index holdings have been rebalanced to hold equal weight. The index is rebalanced and reconstituted semi-annually. The next rebalance will occur on December 20, 2016.
Read more: http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/32279295/lo8ncar-cancer-immunotherapy-index-conducts-semi-annual-rebalance#ixzz4CJOkxfZ2
Statistics and numbers can be used in all kinds of ways, I can say how poorly we have performed as an investment over the last ten years, five years or whatever period but right now I only care about going forward the past is the past, promises made and not kept are what they are. However we are all banking on what is going on most recently and how it effects the future.
I noticed something I thought a bit strange yesterday, so to satisfy myself I did a bit of digging. Volume for most of yesterday was incredibly low then at the end of the day it picked up dramatically (for us) but we ended down almost two % pretty crummy but the index XBI was down 2.6%. So not so bad. How about the week after Ari spoke. We ended last week at 6.43 we closed yesterday at 6.47 (yawn) but the Biotech indexes were down from 3 to 4+ percent depending on which ones you use. So the numbers tell me we are actually outperforming. By the way on a year to date basis depending on which index you use biotech down between 17 to 20+%, while we are up slightly. The only good news we have had is the involvement of several influential advocates. So it appears to me that our management is doing OK selling a company with one 3 year old deal, a 400k milestone payment, burning cash, nothing in clinicals and no commitments to time frames on anything.
Anyway just another take. My own opinion which I won't know till mid August is that someone new is doing a bit of accumulating.
We ever get some legitimate good news we may actually go up quite a bit.
It boggles my mind how anybody can give me a thumbs down on these comments. But I guess that is the nature of investing.
Hope everyone enjoys their weekend. To better days.
A matter of fact John I have spoken to him and found him helpful and engaging, He has lived in the US and speaks the language just fine. John, do you really think we were lucky enough to get Pardol, Sigal and Holzman so they can give presentations at stockholder conferences? I absolutely hope not. Their job is to help us with Merck, Bristol, Astra etc. As an investor that's what I want them to do.
I understand the frustration, but we are going to have a tough time getting investment houses to invest in us until we get recognition through clinical trials or major pharmaceutical companies.
I have said before without the above mentioned individuals this is a 3 or 4 dollar stock.
My fingers are crossed that we are successful I have a lot of money riding on it. This year will tell the tale, hope we have a happy ending.
John, my guess is he did just fine. I know you have been beating this drum for a while but these conferences have limited effect on the stock price, On the other hand if we ever give a presentation at ASCO that is a different story. If we get something in clinicals or do a meaningful deal the presentations will write themselves,
The company I believe is and should be laser focused on a deal right now. You can't ask for better then Pardol, Seigel and Holtzman. Management gave a pretty darn good pitch selling those guys. Their help and support means a lot more then any of these stock investor shows.
As an investor I am very concerned about the state of affairs but my concerns have to do with money not promotion. I am pretty confident that they will get the deal, I think SBH post a telling one and he and I don't always agree.
SBH, this type of post drives me crazy. I have no doubt of the sincerity of the post or what you are relaying to us is absolutely true but the the thought of waiting 12 - 18 months for news on cgen 15001T or 150029 makes buying at under 5 or 6 a better buy because without a catalyst we will not stay at these lofty heights. Think about it, 12 months from now (not 18) we will have about 40 mil in the bank. That's about a years worth of money....not good!
If I have read the presentations correctly and understand the quarterly reports then there are other catalysts for the stock price that will happen before then. The company has stated on numerous occasions that they intend on selling both early and late stage development programs. In order to fund late stage 15001T and 150029 we will have to sell some early stage which would be great even if they don't bring up stand up and cheer money. It would show their business model is working and that more programs are going forward, filling out our potential product list.
The other item I am looking for is that shortly, next couple of months, Anat will give a presentation on 15029 that I expect will get a little ripple to the price.
Now you might be right and the only thing to look forward to is what you posed but if I believe that, I will live in despair and may shorten up my holdings, I don't want to do that.
One other thing DLP feel good, I hope the spasms are gone. Thanks for sharing I am of an age.
Z, I have no doubt your success numbers are correct, being in a biotech is much like being in a lottery. The odds are against you but should you win the gains can be terrific. As the tagline for the New York lottery goes you have to be in it to win it. Until we get something in clinicals we are not truly in it. When we do we can find out if we have been wasting our time or not.
Regarding valuation, there are plenty of companies that have drugs in trials with multi billion dollar valuations. There are also companies with drugs in trials that have valuations that go nowhere. All depends on perceptions. But absolutely agree that the fact that we enter a trial will not necessarily boost the price. Data or knowledge will do that.
Though I have many concerns about how this company is moving and whether it will ultimately be successful, having Pardol, Siegel and Hotzman helping on the sell side should get us some attention on price. We should get some deal with some decent money. My issue is when? I don't want to wait 12 or 18 months, I have been a long term investor that time frame is no longer reasonable.
Dlp, you sounded pretty coherent to me. Many have been writing on this board for a long time. After awhile you all seem like friends so dlp I hope your surgery was minor and that all is well.
Regarding Cramer though I agree with everything said about his show, in fairness how do you seriously recommend a biotech stock with nothing in clinicals, with a fifteen year history of one deal for a 20 mil upfront, with a recent milestone payment of 400k and basically 2 years of cash. He should not be recommending stocks to novice investors that have a cgen profile.
I believe that if Pardoll and now Seigel and Holtzamn were not involved we would be a $4 stock at best. The fact that they are as well as the rest of the SAB team has to give one hope and a bit of confidence that something good will happen and that the science is real. I have written before that I am extremely disappointed that there has been no deal on 15001 and am counting on something to improve the cash situation (my own bugaboo).
Anyway DLP feel good.
Z, I don't disagree. Everything seems to be taking to long. I don't really care who goes and presents at these investor conferences but I am still bothered by the lackluster group of investor houses that follow us and the dearth of funds that own us. Evidently they are not convinced.
I look at it from the point of view of dollars and cents. We can not go into next year with $50 million it is not enough therefore something will happen this year. Hopefully it is something good. If not the stock will stagnate and retreat. Short term stockprice means nothing but we have been under performing lately. There are no immediate catalysts that we are aware of that will change this.
I am very excited about the scientific support we get, but most here have been patient enough. It's time something happens.
Z, thanks for that. Nothing really new but just looks more professional with nice flow. Doesn't seem like something Ari would give then again I noticed that Anat also speaking at a different venue next week.IATI Biomed 2016. Wonder why they make an announcement for Ari but not Anat? Interesting folks speaking I thought at the Conference Anat speaking at.
The lead article in Globes is the indictment of our ex CFO Dikla's husband and sister on insider trading. The article is in Globes the Israeli financial paper.
Dikla was not indicted, if my calculations are right the amount of money made was about $5k US. So the effect on the stock price was minimal and hopefully this affair will go away. I had met Dikla and liked her very much. The article mentioned it was her ex husband they had just had a baby when this occurred so she has suffered enough both personally and professionally.
Since the article was in the public domain I felt I should mention it, to me the whole affair is now over.
I believe the issue is that Prof Pardoll is a member of the US Board of Directors not the Full Company's Board of Directors. There is a difference it used to be we had a chairwoman of the US Board named Frendsho or something like that. I don't know if she is still part of the team. You may remember she came on board when Dr. Hunter did to some fanfare by the company. Having Pardoll, Holtzman and Sigal is quite a step up from that.
PS to SBH, our issue may be one of semantics don't want to waste everyones time but I expect a deal on either our immunotheropy or ADC program this year. JMO.
SBH, let me add to your comments.
First what a bummer of a day, I thought the call was pretty good but seems like some disagree.
OK back to the subject, as you rightly indicate our cap is about the same, though in addition to what you high light there is a much more extensive portfolio a world class SAB and some hotshot support so what gives. It is your statement
"Certainly the odds favor significant commercial news by the end of 2017."
Are we now pushing this out to 2017? If that's the case there is no rush to buy the stock and I would say sell in May and run away. I always feel that you are closer to the action then me so I hope that is an error.
Let's do the math they have 80 mil subtract the 24 mil for balance of 16 you get 56 mil. In 2017 we expect 15029 to go into clinicals we would also expect that other programs like 15052 or the microphage crop will be needing greater expenditure after all we are not a one hit shop. Therefore I would expect we would need at least $40 mil for 2017 could be more. You can't run the ship with that amount, an infusion of cash will be needed.
Where are we going to get the funds?
A secondary? How about I just kill myself now?
Bayer? well if they take 15001 into clinicals we will get some sort of milestone payment, could be enough to meaningfully make a dent. Tough to say, I had thought we might get some funds through the progress of 15022 but that $400k first milestone did not give confidence.
Do some deal in 2016, I don't understand why we have not done one yet but believe something will happen in 2016. If not we will be looked at as another secondary happy discovery company and that does not raise the stock price.
So SBH my friend did you misspeak?
Buy a new computer, had no trouble.
I thought the person who expressed their point on press releases over did it. he made his point move on.
There will be no secondary at this stage, there will be a deal before it is necessary and it wont be for $20 mil.
Did you catch the questioner regarding Bayer, that at the Bayer meeting in off line discussion they hope to go IND this year or early next year. At least that is what I thought I heard.