what is so special is that many of the worms on this Board that I have on ignore are the ones that have replied to my post. Just a bunch of blank posts. Oh well.
On MTSL call today Stan said 2018/2019. I am hoping that this is a case of under promising and over delivering as they usually do. With Fast Track and then likely Priority review, I think 2017/2018 season launch is very possible.
How on earth do they come up with peak RSV sales of $1.2B?? There is a very large disconnect between many analyst's peak estimates and NVAX's estimates of $6 - $8B. The MTSL seems to be the highest out there, estimating between $3 - $4B. Hopefully we can get further clarity from NVAX management on this.
..so you're the first person that I've read on this board or in all the analysts reports to talk about the Phase 2 Elderly results being marginal. Maybe you're full of sh_t.
...4 to 5 $Billion in peak sales is still a monster number, and applying a similar multiple that PFE paid for ANAC's est. peak sales still gets you to a 9 - 11 $Billion valuation.
That number should be higher after a successful Phase 3.....best current metric is the multiple PFE is paying on ANAC's projected peak revenues. The same multiple would value NVAX at anywhere from 8 to 12 $Billion, depending on a widely varying estimate of peak sales(if you strictly use NVAX's stated potential peak sales estimate of 6 to 8 Billion, then you're looking at a mind numbing 13 to 18 Billion valuation)
Great post, bballgm. It seems like such a no brainer for PFE to go after NVAX if they report positive Phase 3.
...based on how well they have executed to date, one would hope that with FDA help, they can. Or they could be bought out which would make the question moot.
Medimmune ended up being sold only after Carl Icahn took a position and agitated for a sale. They also had over a billion dollars in revenue at the time. The largest value NVAX shareholders could realize would be after NVAX has revenues.
You are such a worm........go wiggle away from this Board
....this one ending with Pfizer and American Lung Association logos. Get the BLA filed and sell to Pfizer, who will spend the gazillions in advertising that NVAX will never be able to afford to market the vaccine.
Let's see. Here's the past several months news - dilution via the Convertible offering, Erck's stock sales, Employee stock option plan dilution. Shareholders have been handed a sh_t sandwich while the share price is at penny stock levels.