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Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. Message Board

syzygyzys 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2016 5:39 PM Member since: Nov 11, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Sell, sell, sell!

    by jkprice Jul 8, 2016 11:42 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jul 8, 2016 5:39 PM Flag

    Thanks. In my stock portfolio I have SLW and a little SAND, I think those are the best way to invest in precious metals.

    I have way too much in oils and financials. I will be moving out of them very slowly.

    Sounds like your portfolio is pretty concentrated, especially with VXX and TVIX in there.

  • Reply to

    Sell, sell, sell!

    by jkprice Jul 8, 2016 11:42 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jul 8, 2016 3:27 PM Flag

    I didn't red thumb you, but I am curious as to how your portfolio breaks down right now. Mine is about 60% stocks, 40% cash. Care to share yours?

  • Reply to

    OT: FRO

    by dividendhunter Jul 7, 2016 10:06 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jul 8, 2016 8:35 AM Flag

    Ancient history. The direction of tanker rates is more relevant to what the next few years of earnings will look like.

  • Reply to

    OT: FRO

    by dividendhunter Jul 7, 2016 10:06 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jul 7, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    What improvements in the fundamentals? Rates generally have been trending downward all year, and there is no event in sight that will change that.

  • Reply to

    SFL

    by suadela24 Jul 5, 2016 9:44 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jul 6, 2016 3:52 PM Flag

    Not really. SFL is more than the sum of its affiliates, although they do have a significant effect on both its operations and its stock price. I stand by my advice - enjoy the dividends, and be patient about buying. I'll expand on that, I don't think this a time that long term investors should be selling it. The dividends will allow you to build your cash reserve while you wait for a break in the market.

  • Reply to

    SFL

    by suadela24 Jul 5, 2016 9:44 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jul 6, 2016 8:03 AM Flag

    The "problem" with SFL is, was, and for the forseeable future will be, the affiliates, namely GOGL, SDRL, and FRO. Last year we saw some financial engineering where SFL bailed out GOGL. You could make a case that SFL got a decent deal, but time will tell - meanwhile, GOGL got a lifeline for sure. It seems highly likely that SDRL will need a similar lifeline in the next three years, while GOGL is far from out of the woods, and FRO wouldn't be able to last through a long downturn in rates, weither, although I don't expect a problem there for a while.

    JF has proven that he will move money and contracts around his public companies in order to keep them all solvent, so the cloud of the affiliates will hang over SFL until JF either dies or goes to prison, two events that always seem near, but haven't happened yet. After that, who knows? I would love it if whoever took over simplified the whole capital structure, and the affiliates either got absorbed or much further separated from SFL, but counting on that is definitely a speculation.

    Enjoy the dividends from SFL, and be very patient about buying it. Look for capital gains elsewhere. Although I haven't done it, I think bayman's strategy of selling the puts has some merit, you might want to look at that.

  • Reply to

    Long term spec plays.

    by williamlebotschy Jul 3, 2016 3:15 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jul 4, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    VNR has some bonds outstanding, cusip 92205CAA1 / US92205CAA18. They are still paying the coupon, as far as I can tell.

  • Reply to

    Whew!

    by jkprice Jun 24, 2016 4:07 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jun 25, 2016 7:39 AM Flag

    Although I always like your posts, Mark, I had sort of written you off as a sort of cranky superbear. But this time, I think you might be right. There seems to be a lot of sentiment for a bounce right here, it would be odd if such a consensus were right. I'm ready to buy some VGK, but I didn't buy any yesterday and I plan to wait a bit longer. Still, it's starting to look like pretty good value, on the currency play alone.

  • Reply to

    BEXIT

    by williamlebotschy Jun 24, 2016 12:27 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jun 24, 2016 7:09 AM Flag

    I think VGX will be a good buy over the next few days and weeks.

  • Reply to

    Hey keebon

    by bobdbeck Jun 21, 2016 1:04 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jun 22, 2016 8:43 AM Flag

    Musk is starting to look like a latter day John Fredericksen, wheeling and dealing with a web of interrelated companies, most of them losing money most of the time. JF's fish farming operation, which is supposedly quite profitable, is privately held. We'll see if that sort of thing happens with Musk.

  • Reply to

    My latest outburst........rant,..........whatever

    by jkprice Jun 7, 2016 12:36 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jun 7, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    A while ago you posted that you had sold everything, but since then your posts have suggested that you have some stocks in your portfolio. How much do you have in stocks? For me it is about 60% stock, 40% cash.

  • Reply to

    Someone stuck a pin

    by bobdbeck Jun 1, 2016 10:13 AM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jun 2, 2016 7:09 AM Flag

    SFL owns more than 20% of FRO, and as such, FRO should be treated as an affiliate and FRO earnings included in SFLs. With these offshore companies accounting is always a roll of the dice, but I think the FRO earnings are includied in SFLs results.

    That may influence SFLs decision to sell those FRO shares.

  • Reply to

    SFL--cash to debt ratio

    by jkprice Jun 1, 2016 12:53 PM
    syzygyzys syzygyzys Jun 1, 2016 6:26 PM Flag

    It also means the company is susceptible to a rise in interest rates. I am holding the SFL I bought late last year and early this year, but SFL has a lot of LIBOR debt.

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