I have subscribed...currently talking with myself over there about MRNS...seems like it might be more useful for the larger companies and sectors. Thx weasl.
Assuming Yahoo stays with its new "conversations" what would be a good option to move to? I jumped onto stock twits but it is hard to comment there with the character limitations. Someone had suggested "ragingbull" but I did not know that even existed anymore.
Curious what y'all think.
Prospern, I think that for a while Dr. Kooy's presentation was to not have any results in it. We on this board and I suppose on StockTwits as well made some other assumptions so many are disappointed at the lack of "news".
My understanding is that they are still doing some final analyses on the study. Does that mean the trial is still blinded? I don't know. The simple thing is that Dr. Kooy received ~$90K from FRAXA while Dr. Hagerman received $3MM from DoD (of which I think some was allocated to Dr. Kooy). So following the money, Dr. Hagerman's group was destined to release the data (as it turns out at the International Fragile X conference in San Antonio in late July).
As JR says it is difficult to know what to think, having said that I think we retail investors "manufactured" data release on Thursday past, so perhaps the FXS trial is just following its normal course.
Postponement in our view. Remember Hagerman was initially to speak yesterday then switched to Kooy. You caught that one Ranger, way back. So this has been in the works for a while. We just didn't find out till two days before.
It is as probably a good a time as any. Although I am familiar, I would not call myself a technical analysis guy, others on this board are better equipped to talk about that.
Unless MRNS is given some top line data from Dr. Hagerman, I don't think we see FXS results until July 20th or so (International Fragile X Conference in San Antonio where Dr. Hagerman will release results).
So that means that FXS results might come after PH3 Focal Onset Seizures data and also after PH2 PCDH19 data. All three of these might drop within weeks of each other late July / early August. The Focal Onset Seizure trial for now is considered to be the big one for MRNS.
SAGE, a competitor has some data it will be releasing in the next couple of months which will impact MRNS.
If one of the TA guys come on they might suggest a lower price, I don't know. You have to make a decision on whether or not you think the upcoming trials will be successful and position ahead of them. This is a low float high risk, high reward, high beta stock so it is likely to overshoot in either direction once the data drops.
There are many others that have offered opinions in the last couple of months that you could look at to form your own opinion.
I "discovered" MRNS while invested in IDRA last fall. Can't remember who was talking about it on that board (ranger? bio?), sold IDRA in December and bought into MRNS and have been researching it ever since. I will wait through the data drops.
It would be odd to have a poster on "the effect of gasoline on cortical function" presented at the San Antonio Conference by Hagerman's colleague if their was no positive effect...
I am not going to parse the reasons for the various studies and timing anymore, I don't know. I think though that it is quite possible that nothing has changed for the presenters and this has been their plan all along. We just made some assumptions.
This is a double blind study so who knows what the presenters know at this point but I suppose they at least have educated opinions at this point.
And no, I will not be in the crowd during the presentation tomorrow so I will not be able to judge body language. :)
Bio besides the FXS data being later than we had anticipated I don't think things have changed. The run up from Monday I think was more because of the Jensen article over the weekend.
oh gosh, I do not have any inside knowledge on this or any other matter, I don't work in the industry. I did mention before that I figure myself to be good at research. It is not hard to google things if you have/make the time. I routinely search this as I have an investment here.
I have also routinely emailed questions to various individuals, some of which get back to me.
I just thought it was important info for many of you to know in order to manage your expectations (especially since we had a collective belief that results would be out tomorrow) that is all.
I figure the institutional investors already knew this, we might as well also.
I am just relaying what I have learned and I believe to be true. Everyone will know for sure by tomorrow night anyway. I am hoping this will temper any disappointment / confusion about lack of results that among other reasons why I felt it important to share..
I don't know anyone at MRNS or at the Conferences, I just asked some questions of a couple of people who would know and they responded. I think it is important to get this info out because I, among others have been assuming that Thursday's presentation would release FXS results, which it will not.
At some point MRNS will be given information I figure, but don't know. I don't know how to resolve their comment about releasing data on FXS in the coming weeks.
Other than MRNS releasing something, there should not be any FXS data released until late July now.
Ranger, I think you might be right and that we might see Focal and even PCDH19 before FXS now but I don't know this.
What I know as of last night.
- Thursday presentation will not include results, just background on the science and trial structure.
- San Antonio presentation will include results.
- There are still some "sub-analyses" to be done before trial completion.
What I don't know
- Who knows what (the trial was blinded) at this point
The Thursday presentation will go into detail about the science and structure of the trial. The San Antonio presentations will detail the results.
Having said that, I also believe that results WILL be released at the San Antonio conference in July. What is a few more weeks when we have waited this long?
Vision, you use big words and I like what you say :)
Five analyst firms currently cover Marinus. Their price targets range from $13 to $17 a share. Both Oppenheimer and Jefferies reiterated Buy ratings on Marinus in May. Oppenheimer is the most bullish with a $17 price target andnoted it believes 2016 could be a "breakout year" for the company and the stock. As of the first quarter, the company has just over $50 million in cash on hand after burning through just under $6 million of cash during the quarter.
Tech here now... Bret Jensen has been a MRNS bull for some time along with a few of us. So perhaps we see a bit of a bounce due to Jensen's article, this has happened before. Still any FXS data will trump the article.
Hope y'all are having a good weekend.
The Bret Jensen Article on Seeking Alpha, I only included the info on MRNS, FWIW the other stock was IRWD.
2 Must-Own Small Biotechs For June
Jun. 4, 2016 1:32 PM ET| Includes: MRNS, SGYP
Bret Jensen Bret JensenPremium Research »⊕Follow(24,948 followers)
Specializing in biotech stocks, Small Caps, managing optimized portfolios
Send Message|Biotech Forum through SeekingAlpha
One of the keys to investing in the volatile but lucrative small-biotech space is being aware of upcoming catalysts for small-cap companies.
This include PDUFA dates and when trial readouts will become available. There are many sources to find this data and they can be huge catalysts for these high beta stocks.
Here are two small cap concerns that are attractive on a risk/reward basis and have near term catalysts on the horizon informed biotech investors should be aware of.
One of the keys to successfully in small biotech stocks - other than patience, discipline, and a cabinet full of Tums given their high beta moves in both directions - is being aware of potential upcoming catalysts. Buying a developmental concern whose only major catalysts are quarters or even a year or more away puts an investor at the mercy of whichever way the winds of sentiment are blowing on this highly volatile space.
Luckily, there are plenty of sources to find dates when high profile catalysts are upcoming. The important dates include PDUFA dates with the FDA but also when important trial readouts should be out. Here is a calendar application I use that I have found very useful for finding data I need when evaluating any potential investment in the small cap biotech space.
So without further ado, let's take a look at a couple of small concerns that I believe have favorable risk/reward profiles at current levels but also have potential catalysts coming up shortly as well.