OK seriously, let's have a VIN update.
MS VIN assignments have been remarkably stable all year at about 1000/wk. Until this month. Of course, we're only half way through the month, but August VIN's are running only half that rate. As I see it, the big difference is in the number of cars being built for inventory. I think that with 100 kWh and AP 2.0 on the horizon, it would be imprudent to add more inventory cars. So we're seeing the rate drop to the level of new customer orders.
MX is a little harder to read. Again, VIN issuance seems to have stalled. Most of the new VIN's are for X60's and many of the new VIN reports are filling gaps in the sequence. So the top number is growing slowly.
The trend for Q3? At this point in time, two-thirds of the VIN's to be built in the quarter have already been assigned. With the current trend, they will probably hit 20,000 deliveries for Q3. It could grow 10% larger with inventory incentives. It will be interesting to see how Elon plays his cards. I think that strong Q3 sales followed by another capital raise will be more important than hitting 80k for the year.
So when does your car find time to charge up? Would it have to find a wall snake somewhere?
...while the Viewing Public are moved to...tears.
...or blandness if you prefer.
I know of a spaceport in New Mexico that he could buy at salvage prices, just like he bought the NUMMI plant.
The master plan is to release an ambiguous tweet any time that the share price seems to be struggling. Something like aspiring to a 10-100 fold improvement in manufacturing efficiency. If a statement like that came from a dinosaur company, it would be laughable. From Elon, it's disruptive.
Yes, after a several month hiatus, the new finance page has returned. Horrible to the point of being unusable! and no message board. This time I think it's going for good. I was able to wiggle in this afternoon, but the portal is narrowing.
In case I don't see you folks again, it's been a pleasure. I really mean it.
Best wishes to all!
The reasons for MS finished inventory and MX finished inventory are quite different. So I don't think it scales to the relative build rate. The MS finished inventory is on purpose - cars built to be inventory cars. The MX finished inventory is due to the bottleneck at service centers, exacerbated by final re-works. So I just split it 50-50.
LR, did those Q2 production estimates look reasonable to you?
MS - 11750 (2000 added to finished inventory)
MX - 6600 (2000 added to finished inventory)
LR, 11750 is my best guess for a MS production number. Tesla produced about 4000 more cars than they delivered in the quarter. Since they were producing MS and MX at about the same rate in late June, I'm allocating 2000 to each. Round numbers yes, but probably not too far off. So yes, I'm also thinking that about 6595 MX were produced.
When counting cars, deliveries are the most important metric because that's what generates revenue. But there is a lot of quarterly ebb and flow that might cause one to jump to conclusions. Another metric to track is production. In 2014Q4, Tesla broke the 10,000 barrier for the first time. This is what quarterly production has looked like since then.
No particular thesis - just data for investors.
It's unusual for the NTSB to get involved in routine accident investigations. So when Clarence Ditlow says, "It’s very significant", I trust that it's very significant. It's worth keeping an eye on this.
"the fact our cars don't fly yet is stunning"
Tesla can fly their cars all the way to Denmark.