"Very interesting how they came to the 45% Model S order increase for Q1 statement."
Some people view everything Musk says with skepticism. But in this case, we can verify his statement because the increase in Q1 orders will show up in Q2 production.
2Q15 Production: 12,807
2Q16 Production: 11,750 (approx)
So the 45% increase is clearly evident... Hmmm...
Well maybe he was referring to a particular week in Q1. Or maybe a particular day. In any case, Elon and I can both have a good chuckle over it.
Holy smokes, Donro. What a great thread! I missed the discussion yesterday. To add a quick comment, I think your GM's are still on the optimistic side. They'll have to cash in a lot of ZEV credits to hit those percentages, especially if the S60 continues to be the sales leader.
And I wonder if many of those internal Q1 "orders" were subsequently cancelled in Q2? In Q2, there were some 2000 more MS VIN's assigned than there were cars built. Very fishy.
"...They are really looking to move cars fast for some reason.”
The point is that even the MX the inventory cars are being sold at substantial discount. "Ya I just got one out of Orlando with about 1,100 miles and a $4,500 discount." It was untitled, so it was eligible for the $7500 tax rebate. This is for a car in very short supply. What the heck is up with that?
The entire thread can be read on the TM Model X forum - Model X inventory car purchase.
So you're behind the wheel and you suddenly realize that Otto is over his head in a traffic situation. Should you intervene (albeit too late), or should you let Otto crash? I'd like to get Elon's answer.
JMC, here's some more data confirming the emphasis on inventory sales.
"I was in the Portland store today and they have access to about 100 Inventory cars. That will double in the next two-three weeks I was told. They will not be listed on the Tesla site you have to go in and talk to someone. They are really looking to move cars fast for some reason."
Also interesting that MX are showing up for inventory sales as well.
But DB said this about the SCTY acquisition:
"2) Re-focusing Tesla’s strategy on execution of this plan (most investors, and we suspect most Tesla customers, have not yet signed up to all aspects of management’s plans for a broadly defined sustainable energy company."
While the acquisition would be good for Elon and Fidelity (and perhaps a few others), it would be poison to Tesla. I don't know the full impact to DB, but obviously they don't like it.
Metal: "I read (3) as implying challenges to execution. But if they're projecting TSLA actually getting there, I agree with you."
For those who may have missed the original post, this was 3) - "Achieving execution milestones (i.e. production, cash flow)." I would argue that by leaving the share price unadjusted, DB feels that this delivery setback has not affected Tesla's ability to execute. I strongly disagree; I think it's a harbinger for the future. And once again, I'll say that Tesla must make fundamental changes to their business model just to survive. And if they are to thrive (as the PPS target suggests), the changes must be disruptive.
Earnings estimate reduced by 50 cents. But share price forecast is intact. Go figure. Some talking points:
"We currently see at least 3 significant drivers for the stock: 1) Increasing visibility into TSLA’s business plan; 2) Re-focusing Tesla’s strategy on execution of this plan (most investors, and we suspect most Tesla customers, have not yet signed up to all aspects of management’s plans for a broadly defined sustainable energy company); and 3) Achieving execution milestones (i.e. production, cash flow)."
So let me translate: 1) They've been reading Montana's SA articles. 2) The SCTY offer is so bad it stinks underwater. 3) Are they looking at the same company I am?
And no help from Norway. German sales were flat.
Norway at 543, down from 705 in Q1.
Germany at 381, down from 396 in Q1.
Overall, EU will probably finish at 2900-3000 for the quarter. Down from 3816 in Q1.
So if North America had 5700 MS (per InsideEV's), then it leaves only 1100 for Asia/Pac. Can that be right?
Good thoughts, Oil. But I would disagree about the inventory cars. There is every indication that Tesla is increasing their emphasis on sales of inventory cars. There are entire blocks of VIN numbers that are now showing up on inventory lists. We will see whether this is a good marketing strategy. I suspect it should help, but MS sales are looking very weak right now. If they're going to deliver 50,000 cars in the second half, something needs to change dramatically.
It seems like only a few months ago that Inside EV's was proclaiming that MS orders were coming in at an unprecedented rate. Apparently those orders had a very low yield rate. So were they making it up? No, I think they were being fed some carefully selected "Musk numbers".
Coach, the collapse of MS sales was absolutely shocking. It was their lowest sales quarter since Q3 two years ago! And it explains the urgency for re-introducing the S60 with little or no gross margin. Still, the S60 has made very little impact on the order rate, up maybe 10% since June 10. I don't see any way possible that they could sell another 50,000 cars this year.
Oh, my goodness! I did not see that coming in any scenario. The MX ramp-up should not have affected MS production in any way. MS Customer orders in late May and June were being being processed (confirm-to-delivery) in under 30 days, same as the end of any other quarter. There is no customer order backlog for MS. Although Elon denies that orders are a measure of demand, it is in fact the best measure.
The fact that MS VIN's continue to be assigned at a rate of 13,500/qtr indicates that Tesla is building up one heck of a large finished goods inventory.