"This is just someone short on the stock who's desperate."
I'm reasonably sure that just like in Norway, investigators will find that there was a short in the car.
It's in the Tesla Motors Model X thread. It should be at the top of the list, as new comments are still coming in.
Interesting thread posted on the TM forum. It's certainly not the first report of its type, but this one has pictures. Apart from air bag burns, no one was injured. Once again it proves that Tesla is the safest car on the road. You can even see that the RF suspension knuckle snapped off cleanly, thus making the crash safer still.
easygoing, here's some more MX detail. Let's start with the hard numbers.
To date, Tesla has issued about 11300 VIN's. About 1300 Signature/Founders and 10000 Production. All of these should have completed assembly in Fremont by 6/30. As of 3/31, they produced 3172. So there should be about 8100 produced in Q2.
The harder part is trying to estimate how many of those will either be in "captive" inventory (showroom and demo), or in transit to customers. There are a number of reasons why this is probably a large number. Many of these cars are headed outside the US to Canada, Europe, and China. For US cars, there is the normal transit queue plus and extended amount of time spent in final inspection either at Fremont or at the Service Center.
That's why I'm guessing 2500 which would make the Q2 delivery total about 5600.
"Musk said he can increase efficiency 10-100 fold, it is BS. ... What is he waiting - does someone have to say "go" ?"
The whole key to this infinite improbability is to first understand that there is a finite possibility that a machine could be built that would then build the infinitely improbable machine that delivers 10-100 fold increase in efficiency. That's what Elon was eluding to when he said that they need to build the machine that builds the machine. All this takes time. But if I were him, I would accelerate the schedule, just to be safe.
I wouldn't try to extrapolate MX Q2 deliveries from the Apr and May numbers. A large portion of the May deliveries got pushed into June. And of course there will be another end-of-the-quarter delivery blitz. (Yes, I know that Elon promised that they wouldn't do that anymore.) Q2 should see all of the EU and Can Sig's delivered. The Production VIN total stands at 10,000. Of these, most of the US cars will be delivered by 6/30. But a large number of the 10,000 are headed outside the US and will be delivered in Q3. Right now, I'm expecting about 2500 to be in finished inventory at the end of the quarter.
That works out to 8100 produced in Q2; 5600 delivered. Something like that.
By all accounts, Tesla's assembly plant is already the envy of the auto industry. After they re-invent it based on first principles, They'll be so far ahead of the competition, it won't even be funny. Elon will revolutionize the industry much like Henry Ford did a century ago.
The Norwegian government will save a ton of money by using this mandate to replace its unsustainable tax incentives. It will also get cars out of the bus lanes. There are many benefits.
"Basically, Model X production is ramping at exactly the same rate that Model S production did."
Isn't that what Montana predicted 6 months ago?
And if you want to split hairs, only 8k of the 10k VIN's came from the pre-reveal reservations. 2k came from reservations after the reveal.
"so does this basically confirm that US orders have been filled?"
Yes, it does (except for the penny-pinchers who ordered coil suspension). The US orders have all been assigned VIN's. Most will be delivered by 6/30; some deliveries will spill into July.
How about Canadians? They also have their VIN's assigned. Signatures will be delivered in June and Production series in July.
How about Europeans? They also have their VIN's assigned. Signatures will be delivered in June/July and Production series in July/August.
And now the Chinese? If they are ready to ship to China, then the VIN's have already been assigned. Any evidence? Yes, I saw a Chinese customer VIN assigned in mid-April.
So who's missing in the 10,000 VIN's assigned to date? Apparently only the right-hand-drive markets. Of those, only UK and HK will be measurable. Will it even make sense to produce them?
Honestly, how would you like to be the new VP of Manufacturing in charge of rolling out Elon's 10x improvement?
For a company that just announced a 10x manufacturing efficiency improvement, today's stock action was rather disappointing. Imagine if Ford made a similar announcement. The stock would have doubled overnight.
Elon would be delighted if they could achieve one sigma quality on the Model X. In any case, it would be a good target to shoot for, even if he comes up short.
"How will TSLA do better than Nissan?"
They will operate their battery plant 10 to 100 times more efficiently than Nissan.
Let's have a peek at the early results. Two precincts reporting this morning.
Sweden reported 24, down from 77 a year ago.
Netherlands reported 19, down from 129 a year ago.
Although alarming on the surface, I wouldn't read too much into it. The third month of the quarter is always the big one.