MS VIN assignments have been remarkably stable all year at about 1000/wk. Until this month. Of course, we're only half way through the month, but August VIN's are running only half that rate. As I see it, the big difference is in the number of cars being built for inventory. I think that with 100 kWh and AP 2.0 on the horizon, it would be imprudent to add more inventory cars. So we're seeing the rate drop to the level of new customer orders.
MX is a little harder to read. Again, VIN issuance seems to have stalled. Most of the new VIN's are for X60's and many of the new VIN reports are filling gaps in the sequence. So the top number is growing slowly.
The trend for Q3? At this point in time, two-thirds of the VIN's to be built in the quarter have already been assigned. With the current trend, they will probably hit 20,000 deliveries for Q3. It could grow 10% larger with inventory incentives. It will be interesting to see how Elon plays his cards. I think that strong Q3 sales followed by another capital raise will be more important than hitting 80k for the year.