LR, I agree with your assessment of fuel costs and distribution. I especially agree with your opinion about the viability of hydrogen as a transportation fuel. But I disagree that gasoline is obsolete. It's still the most flexible and cost effective solution for personal transportation. I would also disagree that it's significantly more polluting than generating electricity for EV's. Eventually EV's will replace ICE's, but only after significant improvements in battery technology.
Canadian MX customers are staying away in droves. You can see it in forum chatter and you can see it in the MX Tracker. Of the Canadians who have reported, these are the numbers: 9 Signature orders, 10 Production orders, 11 Cancellations. Considering that people are much more likely to post an order than a cancellation, you would have to conclude that cancellations are crazy off the hook.
"Once the cost of the EVs themselves comes down, they are doomed."
That's what I've been saying all along. But in today's economics, the only way that an EV gets sold is if the manufacturer is willing to lose money, the customer is willing to pay more, and the taxpayer is willing to subsidize the sale. It's not a sustainable business model until the price of batteries becomes competitive.
"Which one is the Ford model."
Ford bought Founders VIN #64. Of course, this was a spoof post. Ford would NEVER re-sell a car that was used for engineering teardown. There would be too much liability.
P.S. - For the same reason, they would never sell beta cars to customers. Even if it was disruptive.
There is absolutely no situation where breaking of suspension components improves the safety of a car. Race cars or passenger cars.
"Then why does NASCAR require break away axles"
Pwdy, please link to this requirement.
Interesting article in Ward's Auto World. I thought Tesla was uniquely qualified to bring this technology to market. Wasn't that accounting for $60 of their share price?
KB, these two statements seem to be in direct conflict: "There is evidence that the U.S. Model X backlog has been filled. But they will probably start shipping to Europe soon. Looking forward we can assume sales of ... maybe 12,000 Model X crossovers per quarter."
Where are these MX sales going to come from? North American and European orders are anemic. Is China the wild card?
"No offense to Temagami but how would he know this? The current situation is one data point"
No offense taken. Here's how I estimate the on-going order rate:
As of April 26, there were 6933 production VIN's assigned. Using Tracker data, we can see that 18% of those VIN's were from reservations made after Sep 29th. That translates into 1280 VIN's from reservations made in the last 6.5 months. So the ongoing reservation rate is about 200 per month. Of course, that's only the U.S. and does not include pending orders for 5-seaters or X75's. But I think you're still only talking about 300/mo or so.
In order to get to 12,000/qtr, Tesla will have to do something radically different.
According to Anton Wahlman, "The max isn't two. It's two per form. But you can submit an unlimited number of forms - with one or two refundable car deposits per form."
I know it's hard to keep up with all of Elon's tweets. In case you missed it: In a tweet Musk said his company SpaceX is "in the early stages of developing advanced micro-satellites operating in large formations." We'll have to wait for more details though, as he said an announcement is a couple of months away. That was in late 2014.
This time we get to wait for more details about the Mars mission.
Wow, VIN 82065 would have been built in April of last year. It's essentially never been driven.
This Tweet came directly from Elon Musk: "Have been reviewing end of line production quality personally. Slowed things down temporarily, but it's for the best."
I think that once othermakers understand the benefits of having the CEO performing end-of-line inspections, they will follow suit. Up until now, the mantra has been you can't "inspect in" quality at the end of the process; it must be designed in. Elon is proving them wrong.