Of course in 1929 (& 1987) the market rallied into summer, peaked around Labor day)--can't rule that out. But I think the chances are we could see the highs in the next week or 2.
Be out before early August at the latest, and be totally short by late August.
Fade the rally. Market will be down big over the next 2-4 months after a knee jerk rally.
I think they should not do a reverse--just let it reach a level like TVIX. TVIX tries to avoid reverese splits, so I actually prefer that one for trades when I am bearish. Some brokerages like Scottrade charge you on the reverse spits.
1. Venezuela, for example a general strike in the oil fields (happened in 2003-4 and oil soared)
2. Nigeria--not a bastion of stability. Oil fields are in the Ibo area, where people chafe at Yoruba/Housa dominance & corruption
3. Middle East--who knows about that place?
USO in my humble opinion has a much bigger chance at $20 than $10 imho. Calls are the better bet.
If they try that we'll seize their $1 trillion in bond & stock holdings :)
New York state is right to ban it. Just over the border, Pennsylvania is being pillaged. The long term consequences of fracking are awful in many cases.
$80 unlikely soon, unless other countries besides Venezuela have problems. But $65-75 is possible.
During this 2002-03 general strike, crude prices doubled I believe.
In 2002-03, there was a general strike in the oil fields, which cut off oil. Conditions are much worse today.
Think about it--you work in the Maracaibo oil fields, and can't feed your family because the market shelves are almost bare. You need to stand in hours long lines, and hope food is left.
Shorts are living at the edge of disaster imho. USO could easily rally $4 to $7 from here.
We're talkin' the "Mickey, Willie & the Duke" of oil. Oil bears assume the oil will keep pumpin'---will it????
Not exactly models of stability, but the source of most of the world's oil. Bears should be biting their nails. See the food riots in Venny? What if the oil workers call a general strike?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Good relative strength is one of the most important technical signs. I'm waiting for it to cross $17 before I buy. That would be an important technical level.
Amazon might be a buy at 30-50 times earnings, but 300 times? You can have it.
From the look of the futures, your price prediction may come pretty fast. Amazon, when it corrects, does so quickly.