I think your analysis is correct for the most part. There could easily be an attempt at a bounce mon, or tues but if you look to the medium and longer term charts the damage appears to just be begining. The stochs crossed over for a sell on the weeklys and the adx is turning down. That is generally a good indication of a trend reversal. also if you look at how fast the stochs reset from oversold on the 30 min and hourly it makes me think any bounce will be short lived. As far as the RSI it can remain oversold/overbought for months and even diverge for days.
I made a a few dollars being long this vrtx and have been expecting a possible pullback to $36. The more I look at the charts and think strategy I think the best play is to be short (getting long puts myself) and risk a close above 44.71 the recent high. I fully expect it to break through 36 then look to fill the gap from 1/5/06. This could take a while to play out but I think it will happen before the next earnings announcement comes out.
By my count 36 should be the best inital chance for real support. Not a huge position in $35 puts so i dont think it gets there. If somehow it does get throught 35 then it could possibly (i doubt it) hit next retracement around 30 and close a gap left at $29.51.
I dont think this move is very complicated. You have vrtx a decent stock with potential. It is a high beta stock that has definitely recieved some momentum money over the last month or two. The momentum is gone and those players are bailing. I think a good place to be a buyer is around 36 if it comes off that much.<br><br>happy trading
It appears that vrtx is setting up for a big test over the next week. It will need to advance in a very steep manner or face breaking a decent support line. I think will break support below 43.5 area and test 40. Itf it does it will beinteresting. I would not short but i would proceede with caution with new purchases. I am flat waiting a pull back to at least 36. May never get it but i cant chase at current valuation.
Cmon dude. Its great the trade is going your way. Most people here are experienced traders and we have all had big winners and losers. There is no need for that over the top b.s.
One hard lesson i learned my first year trading energy was the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I agree a pullback is due but i would not short it.
I got out but i would be scarred to short this stock. Biotechs in general are risky shorts. You never know when some breakthrough will shoot it to the moon. Even if it pulls back to the 36 area which i think it will the uptrend remains. Goodluck to you, i just hope we don't have to endure a posting every time the stock tics down. Let it at least have a down day first.
i'm out. if it can stay above 43 all week may look to get back in. No need to be greedy.
Its been a good ride but that is just not enough. Good company, but the big move seems to be in for now.
Looking at the charts i think cvx going to $61 by Friday. I think this is the most attractive integrated oil stock right now from a chart perspective. Oil may show a little weakness up until eia data but will be back in rally mode by thursday lead by unleaded.