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Neuberger Berman Real Estate Se Message Board

theceltbeserk 1095 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 22, 2015 8:57 PM Member since: Mar 8, 2007
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  • Mosaic cuts production because low grain prices have farmers in a squeeze. So the thought is that Farmers will let even more fields go under? How much farmland has been lost in California?
    This isn't for the faint of heart, but neither is the future.
    This is a buy and long hold with risk that they drop the dividend to zero if agricultural commodities remain low for too long.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • All seem to support a bright future for Agricultural products. These things take time. Too bad a premium isn't placed on Geographical Stability. I would bet that any Eastern Hemisphere Production could be at risk.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Feb 15, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    Henry Ford was a true visionary who built a car for the masses. A car for the common man. What exactly does Elon care about other than the bottom line? Building cars for the Elite?
    I do not buy your argument that Musk is in it for the common good, and if even so, that is not a valid reason to buy stock in his company.

  • theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Feb 15, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Safety comes at a price. Too bad Tesla doesn't care for the safety of the common man and lowers the price so common people like me aren't risking our lives in 25K time bombs.
    As the Worlds wealth continues to concentrate into fewer and fewer hands and the rest left wanting, who will be left to buy such bastions of safety?
    If you are buying a stock out of 'Moral' reasons, or some Don Quixote Idealism, then you'll soon find yourself down here in the rubble with the rest of us, worried more about food and housing, and not so much about the brakes of your 91 Plymouth Duster.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Buy oil now. Buy it when it goes lower. Buy Ford, Chrysler, and even GM.
    Tesla is a niche market competing with high end BMW and Mercedes without the SUV comparable.
    Tesla needs a poor mans car. We are talking sub 30s or a Prius competitor at least.
    The market is just too limited for Tesla. It's all about the person who can afford Prestige and is also environmentally conscience and not Brand Loyal/Hopeful.
    But wait, Tesla will have it's time. Oil just needs to be higher.

  • Just hold on. Nibble a little here and there. I have followed this stock for over 10 years. It is volatile. The dividend comes and goes.
    Low Energy (if it lasts) will have huge effects in the US and maybe even more in China and India, not to mention they will offset production costs for FCX.
    That is all theory.

  • theceltbeserk by theceltbeserk Nov 24, 2014 1:03 PM Flag
    There is nothing in here but extra clarifications that production is not restarting.

  • Reply to

    Keystone just passed the house bill

    by whygjd56 Nov 14, 2014 12:51 PM
    theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Nov 15, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    Here is my 2 cents, but I offer it up for free.
    Currently, Canada and the regions supporting the Oil Sands, has limited options to transport it's oil, either light or heavy. It lacks major pipelines in all directions that reach capable refineries or major export hubs.
    Because of this, I would guess that a premium is placed on Rail car capacity/availability, or Tanker Trucks. There may even be elevated insurance costs while transporting via Rail car or Tanker Truck due to elevated risk of loss, but that is only a guess on my part.
    Approval of any large pipeline project, that can more efficiently and safely transport Canadian oil, light or heavy, would add competition to the oil transport infrastructure in place and lower transportation costs for all producers across the board.
    As my thesis goes, any of the proposed pipelines, if approved and built to completion, would be like a rising sea that would lift all ships whether those producers used the pipeline directly or not.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Guess not. Can someone point me in the right direction?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Aug 19, 2013 12:03 PM Flag

    I am hoping the current downtrend is a bet on an announced Distribution cut. Currently up above a 12% yield right now.
    Something has to give.

  • Genetically Modified High Yield seeds are under attack. The World Population continues to grow. Viable farmland due to Climate change could be in question.
    Short term, this company is a train wreck. I foolishly gambled a bit, thinking this company was going the way of the baby in the bathwater, when the Potash Cartel was fractured. Then it reported last qtr.'s results. An EPS miss by 96%? Are you kidding me? That's like getting dealt two aces on a gamble of Black Jack, splitting, and hitting 3s on each, with the dealer sitting at 17.
    And do not get me wrong. Stock Market Investing is a pure Gamble. No matter the news, the Big Money gets what the Big Money wants. Big Money picks and chooses what is good news vs. bad news and it is not consistent.
    So, I tend to Gamble on Long Term Thesis. I hope that my bad initial bets recover over time. I am not a trader.
    Currently RNF is sitting at a 11%+ yield. I do not expect that to last but I could be wrong as revenues rose 70% and this is an MLP. But, Margins were crushed due to competition.
    In the end for me, when I expect to see the need for increased farmland and yield to support Human populations, the push against Genetically Modified seeds, and the initial need to support new Farmland as climate change affects the landscape, I see a strong future for basic Fertilizer components to jump start production, where none could be found prior.
    I am only 42. I am investing for retirement 20+ years from now.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Re- investment looks to happen under 30

    by riverfront418 Aug 13, 2013 9:47 AM
    theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Aug 13, 2013 6:08 PM Flag

    This isn't going to get any prettier that is for sure. Talk about a miss for the qtr.

  • theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Jul 30, 2013 9:34 PM Flag

    Figures, I didn't follow my own advice. I was waiting for a second round of selling, not a continued and slow recovery. Yes recovery. 16% down vs 22% down. I should have bought at 22% down and balanced out some losses.
    This volatility is not yet over. The price may be manipulated upward for other big players to recover losses. I am not a buyer here at all. Not yet anyway.

  • Reply to


    by dwoods4q Apr 9, 2013 12:55 PM
    theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Jun 20, 2013 8:58 PM Flag

    Hey Dwoods,
    NRO has been spitting out 2 cents since the dark days of 2009. This is not a Mortgage Reit. It is a Real Estate Reit. That may sound redundant, but it is not. I feel it is the baby in the bathwater, getting thrown out with all other Reits.
    I was averaged in pretty low and sold around $2 to bet on a sure thing penny stock. Well, lets say after a 25K loss on that venture, I have finally been able to recover enough skin to get back into the game. Technically it's not all lost, I still have over 15K in debentures which of course the company can't cover. Just waiting for the dismantling and bankruptcy process so I can claim my losses on my taxes.
    Anyway I havce started to dabble back into NRO and am thrilled to get in below $5. I do need to review their top holdings again. I know they were heavy into the Healthcare Property Reits and Tanger Properties, which last I looked has boosted its dividend 10% over the past two years. (.20 vs .22)
    Aside from my rambling, here's a suggestion. Try a short fund on Treasuries. I have done ok the past 2 weeks in PST and TBF.
    And I just realized your post is from Apr 9th. You still out there Dwoods?

  • Reply to

    1/8 Net Asset Value: 5.40

    by buytop_sellbottom Jan 9, 2013 12:56 PM
    theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Feb 1, 2013 12:31 PM Flag

    Yep, this company and this fund survived the Fire.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • That is if the numbers work out as well.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • theceltbeserk by theceltbeserk Jan 24, 2011 8:08 PM Flag

    Sorry you got burned in 2007. You should have sold at the top.

    Most here have bought NRO below a dollar and have enjoyed a 10% dividend along the way. A few have even been able to trade the ups and downs caused by the tender offers.

    It does not take rocket science to figure this fund out. Anyone can look at the annual and semi-annual reports and see NRO's actual holdings, and even figure out what NRO is bringing in.

    In the dark days after Lehman, which Neuberger was a part of, this fund with Neuberger could have been liquidated, and all the longs given pennies on the dollar in return. Instead Neuberger fought for independence and regained it, as well as keeping this fund whole and paying out giving the longs a chance to recoup losses if they played it smart, and didn't panic and bail. I would think that most here today bought these types of funds with blood in the streets in 2009.

  • theceltbeserk by theceltbeserk Nov 2, 2010 7:34 PM Flag

    Hello all!

    Unbelievable the knee jerk reaction here. I actually thought TGB was trading alone on Gibraltar and copper over $3.80!

    Sadly, I have been out of my position since $4.

    Good luck to all.

  • theceltbeserk theceltbeserk Jul 22, 2010 3:34 PM Flag

    If I had to choose, I would choose the company with a viable future business model and that is Netflix. Blockbuster will go under.

    Netflix has the foothold on streaming and that is where everything will move to. Even my Blue Ray player will support Netflix streaming videos.

    Just because I choose Netflix here though doesn't mean that I think it is a cheap buy. It's not at all, and I would be interested in buying it between $25 and $40 a share.

    I do not own Netflix shares now, nor have I in the past. I just watched it in wonder from the $70 range on up.

  • theceltbeserk by theceltbeserk Jun 18, 2010 4:57 PM Flag

    I am guessing a potential buyer who is loading up on shares before they come to light?

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