Actually if I would provide the following choices:
(1) AAPL; (2) FB; (3) XOM; (4) MSFT; (5) JPM
It can be equally tough.
Actually a rate hike is good for BDCs especially those that contain high percentage of floating rate like FSC, but the rate hike has to be at least 100 bps (0.1%) to be beneficial for BDCs. If there is a rate hike, BDCs would be hit as hard as RETIs initially.
I actually believe that may be a 50% chance FSC will drop at least 5% or more by the end of this year especially if the Fed would raise rate on 12/14/16. Because of that I would not want to hold any FSC for too long and would only trade it. Sorry! For that reason, I would rather hold FTR than holding FSC because I believe downside of FTR is much lower than that of FSC. Of course I can be wrong especially if the Fed won't raise rate and that is WHY that is so hard to predict which one would be the riskiest or least risky.
Interesting, clrodrick, not surprised to see you listed SDOW as the riskiest, but you believe GILD to be the least risky? May I ask you why since you understand GILD better than most of us. Thanks.
I was wondering earlier why the internet was so SLOW day and then heard about cyber attacks on CNBC and confirmed:
Just imagine they may do that on Nov. 8.
So we would have more volatility?
So why in the heck today while the Fear and Greed index is 41 (Fear) and VIX is 13.69 (12-mo low of 11.02 on 8/9/16), yet TVIX is 15.735 (made 12-mo low of 15.63 today)? Weird!!!
US dollar would remain strong and if the Fed would indeed raise rate in December, it would become stronger, therefore short term, gold may drop more. But if the market crashes all of a sudden, gold will rise sharply. In short, nobody knows.
When the #2 DOW gainer today is MCD (+2.86%) because of its all day breakfast menu and they charged more for their food, I would become very very leery. We have not visited MCD for the last six months, their services simply sucked, we had to wait 15 minutes for longer for breakfasts.
Surprisingly, MSFT soared today and rose almost 5%, I did not expect that. Yet JNJ continued to tank and it has been tanking recently. I read an article last night saying which 7 stocks one should sell if Clinton wins, one of them is JNJ, others are MRK, LLY, MYL, AGN, MDT....Both JNJ and MRK are in the DOW30. T dropped bad today. How do you think DOW will fare? I rest my case.
J1, you are right on, unless ST4 who still lives in his own dream world, dreaming a rise of the market, when would he learn? probably never, that may be why he still lives in poverty and had to argue with Direct TV to get a good deal. These days, unless it is for BIG money, I told my wife our time is much more precious than money. When guidance of Nike was down for its future quarters, that should be a BIG red flag to anybody who would pay attention to his surroundings I bet if you take ST4 to alligator hunt or deer hunting, he may not last too long, he did not appear to know what was going on around him. Did he just stay in his shed all day long?
Yesterday I almost bought some T since it dropped some 1.5% and glad I did not because today it dropped another 3.4% probably due to talks on the its acquisition of Time Warner. I waited too long and it now rose back a bit and added some at 37.38, about a "safe" 5.13% yield since it had not cut its dividend but steadily raise it.
Normally I would readily agree that out of my four initial choices: FSC, FTR, GILD and SDOW, SDOW would indeed be the most risky (riskiest) because values of all short ETFs, 2x or 3x will drop to zero in longer term, it is indeed foolish to hold on to any of them for long. However, like I had said in my post, SDOW had not dropped below $13 for the last 30 TRADING days. Now the market can indeed rally after Clinton becomes the official winner on Nov. 8. But what if, there is a small chance that Trump may win? Don't underestimate the anger of a lot of average Americans. Also, now everybody had already believed Hillary would win and Dems would win back the Senate, did the market rise? Why not? Also, do you really believe oil price will continue to rise? I really do not think so, not when China's economical condition continues to worsen. Therefore our guru's conclusion: "because the market is going higher.", IMHO, was totally unfounded and an uneducated guess based not on reality but on wishes. Yesterday, I received a promotion from Fleming's Steak House and did not open it till this morning. I was very surprised to see it is a $40 coupon for a minimum of $100 purchase. I had repeatedly said that when we started seeing promotions from restaurants like those in 2008, we will know we are in the beginning of another recession. Logan's Roadhouse had to file bankruptcy and had to close 34 of their locations. Folks, hard time will arrive soon. When our customers stop consuming and our GDP continues to fall below 2%, how much can our economy grow? They had to cut their estimate for Q3 GDP from 3% to 2%, I believe we would be lucky if it stays above 1%. Therefore, it is truly amazing to me that many talking heads and our own ST4 are still so BLIND, without noticing how bad the global economical conditions currently are and another flash crash can occur at any time, without any prior warnings. Therefore, that was why I believe SDOW may be the least risky one in 2016.
When have you seen a BULL market lasts that long? When have you seen there are two presidential candidates who are so unlikable? When have you seen central banks kept pumping easy money and became some of the largest holders of both stocks and bonds? When have you seen interest rates kept dropping to the point that they became negative and now investors have to pay banks interests to keep their money and there are 13 trillion dollars worth of negative rate bonds floating around? When have you seen oil price and gasoline price dropping so low?
That is indeed an unusual time and therefore one has to expect the unexpected, on either the economy or the stock market. Therefore my post "Which one is the riskiest to hold till the end of this year?" may appear to be an easy question but it was not because nobody can correctly predict what would happen with either our economy or the market till the end of this year. A few of the posters gave some very good responses and gave their rationale for their responses. Interestingly, our TA guru failed to really read my question and choices and had to insert his two cents worth:
"TVIX because of price decay and cantango, trade it quick, do not hold it.. SDOW and DXD because the market is going higher."
The problem is neither TVIX nor DXD was one of the choices. I do wonder how he can ever finish high school because he cannot even comprehend a simple multiple choice question. I am not even trying to insult him but just state the obvious. Therefore phil needs to hold his horse in coming to his defense.
One of the comments after last night's debate was while both candidates kept boasting they could create jobs, yet none of them had bothered to explain how they could provide the training required for people to qualify for some of these bread-winner jobs. Hillary said she would take away jobs of our coal miners but would give them green energy jobs. Can our coal miners learn to do these green energy jobs? The matter of the fact is there are several million vacant jobs in USA that are not filled due to a lack of qualified applicants.
This week stock of Domino's Pizza rose sharply, not necessarily because it has the best pizza or the best prices but because of its app. Its app helps it sell more pizza faster and cheaper. Many pizza companies had already started using robots to make pizzas that are almost as good as hand made, but the prices are much cheaper and with online or smart phone app for ordering pizzas, how long do you believe those menial jobs in pizza places or other restaurants would last? Why do you believe Uber is killing taxi left and right in major US cities? Now they are trying to see who can come out with the first driver-less cars, then we would not even need drivers. More jobs would be gone.
In short, many once take for granted jobs in the USA will fast disappear. What would happen to all these Americans who lack special skills or education? How many minimum wage jobs would we need? What would the use of raising the minimum wage to $12 or $15 when we start losing half of this type of jobs?
Normally it would be suicidal (can still be) to hold any short ETFs especially 2x or 3x for so long. I probably need to lessen my load and take some profit soon. If Clinton wins, the market can rally, and I will suffer. However, this is unusual time because for 30 trading days, SDOW had not dropped below 13 while all other four dropped more.