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The Madison Square Garden Company Message Board

thewisejman 1462 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Feb 13, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Volatility might have returned

    by thewisejman 3 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 3 hours ago Flag

    I did see the ๐Ÿˆ a very nice touch, I watched the Miami game last night, kind of boring though.
    Can you find Slick's pic and post it here? I believe somebody did post his other end here not too long ago...LOL
    Have a nice weekend!!!!

  • Reply to

    Volatility might have returned

    by thewisejman 3 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 3 hours ago Flag

    This is the link for the index:
    http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

  • Reply to

    Volatility might have returned

    by thewisejman 3 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 3 hours ago Flag

    Another interesting fact is if you take a look at the Fear and Greed index, with 100 being Extreme Greed and 0 being Extreme fear. Today it was at 63 (Greed), but 1 month ago it was 82 (Extreme Greed), 1 week ago 76 (Extreme Greed) and yesterday at 65 (Greed). I read a blog of this investment guy and he said he used this index to help him invest, when there was extreme greed, he bought and when it dropped below 50 (Fear), he sold.
    I do not how well this works out but may be worth to follow the index closely. I believe by Sept. 16 or earlier, the index may drop closer to 50. We shall see.....................

  • This morning I heard CNBC talked about how this recent market had become comatose, because it was 36 days (could not recall the exact number but close enough) that the market had not moved more than one percent in either direction. Just like one poster, ageinggraceful who had said in the title of his 8/24 post "Complacent, Boring market". He was right on the mark! Good job, ageinggraceful.

    But if you take a look at today's Dow range of 18335-18572. Earlier this morning immediately after Yellen spoke, DOW actually rose as high as 124 points, then after they digested what Yellen said, DOW dropped as much as 113 points and closed at 18395, down only 53 points, or only 2.9%, another ho-hum day, or was it?

    The DXD's range today may tell you more: 16.49 - 16.92, that was a 0.43 or a 2.6% change on a boring 2x short DOW ETF. Strangely, our in-house self-proclaimed TA guru simply sat on his small Jewish bankroll, too scared to trade but busy criticizing others. I no longer even attempted to pay any attention to him because he was totally clueless and cannot generate any interesting posts or courageous enough to post any of his trades except to claim profit afterwards.

    Look at VIX's range today: 12.13 - 14.93. totally unreal. It closed at 13.65. I believe volatility will soon return and it would be time to make some money.....I did today, not a lot, but enough to celebrate tonight......Did order some Vineyard Vines shirts/polo for my grandson for his staring pre-k this week, this will help.

  • thewisejman thewisejman 4 hours ago Flag

    Added more DPG earlier at 17.2816, now it dropped to 17.20, also thanks to Yellen.

  • thewisejman thewisejman 4 hours ago Flag

    WOW, SO dropped 1.52%, thanks to Yellen.

  • since they said it was about 36 days (?) that the market had not moved more than 1% in either direction, hopefully can buy it back soon. Almost bought more this morning, of course hind sight was always better.

  • Reply to

    TPVG may be a good buy today

    by thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 2:28 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman 5 hours ago Flag

    GSBD and MAIN may be the most risky BDCs to hold right now because of their high premiums and if GSBD drops below 20 and MAIN drops below 28, I will start buying.

  • Reply to

    TPVG may be a good buy today

    by thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 2:28 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman 5 hours ago Flag

    If CPTA and GSBD go up close to their amount of dividends, I will sell both of them. Whether those BDCs are good holds if Yellen will not rise rate till 2017, your guess will be as good as mine. With everybody in the world chasing yields and all these central banks helping them by pumping money into the markets, anything is possible and sky is the limit. All three indexes can continue to make new highs until after the election. Most of the BDCs, IMHO, are now overpriced or very close to overpriced and their yields, even though some of them are higher than 10%, no longer reflects the risks of holding them. When OXLC and then TICC became the sector leaders, IMHO, was simply frightening. If you take a look at the one year chart of MFIN, DLTR, DG and ACET, they had one thing in common, in a single day, the all fell off the cliff.....It will happen more and more often in months to come....

  • Reply to

    TPVG may be a good buy today

    by thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 2:28 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman 7 hours ago Flag

    You may be luckier than me, tulsa, I rather cash in for a 28 cents gain today than waiting for a 0.36 dividend holding it till next Monday. Actually tried to buy it back today. May get lucky.

  • Reply to

    Yellen should be a COMEDIAN

    by thewisejman 9 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 7 hours ago Flag

    Opportunity lost, DOW rose a bit more than 100 pts earlier, I was trying to grab more DXD, but want to get it under 16.50 and now DOW dropped 61 points, I guess the market did not like Yellen's jokes. May be Donald will tell her soon, "You are fired!" I no longer sure Yellen knew what she was doing. She may as well be honest and proclaim, "Read my lips, no RATE hike!"

  • because she said,
    "Case for raising rates has strengthened 'in recent months'"
    yet the market rose immediately afterward. WHY?
    It was because nobody believes the Fed would raise rate any time soon, not before the Nov. election and may not even in December.

    Did you see the Q2 GDP was revised down from the initial 1.2% to 1.1%? It would be LUCKY if the final Q2 GDP would not fall below 1.0.

    Did anybody not see yesterday Dollar General (DG) dropped 18% and Dollar Tree (DLTR) dropped 10%? Everybody expected these dollar stores to thrive in a recession, so what happened? May be even poor people ran out of money to buy?

  • Reply to

    TPVG may be a good buy today

    by thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 2:28 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman 9 hours ago Flag

    Wow, got lucky this time, probably thanks to Yellen, the market rose today and just sold all my TPVG at 11.731. Bought them yesterday at 11.4467. tusla: Are you going to sell yours soon? J

  • Reply to

    OT - ACET

    by tonofelephant 9 hours ago
    thewisejman thewisejman 9 hours ago Flag

    Thanks, tono. Many individual stocks appeared to get punished greatly lately when their earnings did not meet estimate. Yesterday, DLTR (Dollar Tree) dropped about 10% and DG (Dollar General) dropped 18.1% at one point yesterday. It had become very risky in holding any individual stock because any of them can and will drop 20% in a single day. I do not know ACET enough to know whether it is a good buy at its current price. It almost appears a lot of stock holders or funds are taking profit from many individual stocks right now and sell off them as soon as they reported disappointed earnings. If both DLTR and DG did not fare well, I am afraid not too many other stocks will fare much better.

  • Reply to

    psec just announced 2, not 3, dividends

    by big_bags_o_cash312 Aug 25, 2016 6:30 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 6:41 PM Flag

    They did the same last Aug (8/21/2015), announced only two months but did not cut dividend. However, on 9/2014 it announced only 1 month's dividend, it cut its dividend from 0.110625 for Jan 2015 to 0.0833 for Feb 2015.

  • Reply to

    TPVG may be a good buy today

    by thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 2:28 PM
    thewisejman thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 5:03 PM Flag

    Yea, I noticed it too. My son-in-law and I just talked about both Dollar General and Dollar Tree (DLTR) the other day. Dollar tree bought Family Dollar last year, it dropped almost 10% today. DG dropped about 18% today.
    Both down because of expected lower future sales. This may serve as a dire warning to our economy because they are supposedly doing better than other retail stores. Of course, this may indeed be a great time to buy both. But I would rather buy and hold either HD or LOW

  • Reply to

    Where is BigBear ???

    by fredkane3941 Aug 25, 2016 9:32 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 4:56 PM Flag

    "do no wrong" should be "do no harm".

  • Reply to

    Where is BigBear ???

    by fredkane3941 Aug 25, 2016 9:32 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 4:55 PM Flag

    da bar: no pun intended. J

  • Reply to

    Where is BigBear ???

    by fredkane3941 Aug 25, 2016 9:32 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 4:54 PM Flag

    Please allow me to comment on some of what da bear said,
    " IMHO, if you have not beeing making money the last few months, then you are doing something seriously wrong. "
    IMHO, if everybody in the casino is winning, that something was seriously wrong. When somebody is making money in the stock market, that means somebody is losing money or making a lot less because there was always a seller and a buyer.
    "You can not buck the general trend. No disrespect to J or J1 but, going negative in a general Bull or Oil Market is suicide. "
    What exactly is the general trend of oil? It had been up and down, to be able to bet on the correct short-term trend was hard. In the long term, the trend for oil is DOWN.
    Normally, I agree that one should never buy and hold any 2x or 3x inverse ETFs for longer than 3 days, but this is not normal time and I do have a lot of longs therefore I need to have enough shorts to offer me some protections. If anybody currently are bold or crazy enough to hold all longs, with many of them high yields and high risks, he would either become very rich if central banks would continue to pump fiat money or they would become very very poor soon.
    There was a guy who lived overseas, in a very nice mansion, hired maids, gardener and a chauffeur, worth probably around US$20 million, not a lot but enough to not worry for the remainder of his life. Unfortunately he wanted to be richer and he kept buying derivatives from Lehman Brothers, even using margin. Poof not only all his fortune was gone, he owed several million dollars and he committed suicide.
    Right now Citi and other US banks kept buying all these risky derivatives from Deutsche bank. Why?
    Because they are greedy and nothing good will come out of it. Mark my words. Be afraid. I am.

  • Reply to

    Where is BigBear ???

    by fredkane3941 Aug 25, 2016 9:32 AM
    thewisejman thewisejman Aug 25, 2016 4:42 PM Flag

    So I believe an investor may have the following choices:
    (1) Go with the herd and hope the herd is heading in the right direction;
    (2) Sit on a pile of cash; (new school of thought is when a person retires, he should not investor in stocks for at least ten years)
    (3) Day trading everyday, and at the end of the day, only have 100% cash;
    (4) Ignore all the noises, and have a balanced long-term portfolio that will accomplish your investments goals.

    But do understand that buying and holding any single stock instead of a fund, sometime can either be very rewarding or very damaging.

MSG
179.68-0.45(-0.25%)Aug 26 4:02 PMEDT