My man Charl is at -4. Right in there. I believe Phil will collapse and Stenson is a top notch golfer but always seems to come along with a horrific hole here and there that knocks him out. That will leave Charl and a lot of others battling it out. The last two days will be fun. I hope the wind keeps up as it makes for very interesting viewing and a true test of the mental toughness of the best golfers in the world.
Now this surprises me. I just had my bet placed on the British Open and got 35-1 odds on Schwartzel. That's about what I expected but what surprised me is that Dustin Johnson in not the odds on favorite. He is co-favorite along with Jason Day, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy all at 8-1. That's a good price on Johnson. I wouldn't bet Day, he didn't play well at Bridgstone and his game doesn't seem to be in great form now. Spieth is playing pretty well but I don't think well enough to win and although McIlroy is playing decently right now and is a Brit from Northern Ireland and won the British Open two years ago, he was super hot when he won the Open and his game is more suited for American type golf courses, so I think the Johnson bet is a good deal for anyone betting one of the favorites. Anyway, wish me luck.
It starts next Thursday. Actually I think it starts very late at night on Wednesday in the states but I'll be sleeping so lets call it Thursday morning. Dustin Johnson has to be considered the clear favorite after winning the US Open and then winning the Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone this past week. However I think I'll go with a horse I rode to a long shot win in The Masters some years ago, Charl Schwartzel. His game is really coming around and I think he will be a major factor and The Royal Troon Course should suit his game well. The tournament is being held a week earlier than usual this year due to the Olympics. The prize money has also been greatly increased this year if you are not a Brit just because the pound has been hit so hard that it equals a lot more dollars when its converted to your own money. I think I'll put a few bob on it but not too much.
Watching the US Open, are you? This isn't what I had expected. I checked the Pittsburg area forecast Wednesday morning and what I read said a chance for a showers or a storm Thursday morning but clearing in the morning and not much rain expected. They ended up getting a bunch of rain yesterday and last night. The course took on a bunch of rain and the greens are soft and not as fast as they should be and the drives are hitting the fairway and staying instead of running and running and ending up in the tall rough. Playing much easier than it should be. Now the forecast is for no more rain for the tournament. I hope that holds and the course dries out quick so we can get to that fast course I was anticipating. Even though it is playing easier than it was supposed to, they're not tearing it up. The scores are just decent. My pick Matsuyama is just on his third hole of the tournament. The weather may be a help to him for what should have been the tougher starting time in the late groups. Anyway, blow wind blow and dry that place out.
Don't forget the US Open begins tomorrow at 6:45 am eastern time. Be there or or don't be. I won't be there at 6:45 am. The early groups are the lesser known players. My pick Matsuyama goes off at 1:36 pm ET and is playing with Sergio Garcia and Dustin Johnson so that would be a nice group to follow. The weather can change this but the afternoon times are usually the toughest because of all the spike marks in the greens from earlier players, normally more wind and drier and faster greens so I'm hoping Matsuyama can come out of day one within a few shots out of the lead and he'll be in good shape. The tournament is being played at Oakmont Country Club in the Pittsburg area and it is one of the tougher courses in America and will be a huge test if they have their normal 5 inch rough and fast greens that will be really tough with all the undulations in the Oakmont greens and they say they are probably going to let the fairways get hard which means a lot of tee shots will bounce and bounce and end up in that tough rough. Should be interesting but Oakmont is not one of my favorite courses. It is an old style course but has few trees. I prefer the modern courses like Whistling Straits, Chambers Bay, Liberty National and other really nice newer courses.
About 3 1/2 hours until post time. In the betting so far the top three horses are:
Exaggerator at 6-5. I wouldn't touch that tired horse for that price.
Suddenbreakingnews at 5-1. Not a bad price for a horse that has a legitimate shot at winnijng.
Cherry Wine at 8-1. I wouldn't touch this horse at 8-1 either. He did finish second in the Preakness but this horse in not bred to go the 1 1/2 miles of the Belmont Stakes and that extra 5/16 of a mile in the Belmont is like eternity to a horse not bred for the distance. Brody's Cause is the horse I'm taking my shot at and to my amazement he is currently at 22-1. A great price and I hope he stays around that price. I would feel lucky to get him for that.
There are five horse in the field that are bred to have the staying power to run a race this long. The five horses are:
Right off the top I would throw out Trojan Nation because even though he has the breeding of a distance horse he's just not good enough to compete with this group. I would also throw out Lani because of his mental problems but he also is a tired horse. That would leave Suddenbreakingnews, Creator and Brody's Cause as my top three picks. I like the finishing kick of Brody's Cause better than Suddenbreakingnews and I think Creator is the least talented of the three.
So to sum it up, I'm going to bet Brody's Cause across the board and bet some exacta's with Brody's Cause and the other two with a bit more money going on the exacta combos with Suddenbreakingnews than with Creator. I'm not betting any Trifecta's or Superfecta's because there are just too many horses with a shot at the minor spots to make it worthwhile betting. I'm not betting a lot of money but if he comes in at 22-1 you don't have to bet a lot to make a lot. Wish me luck.
Good article. Shep is such a loser. She has no life, no money, no family and I would bet she hasn't been 50 miles from her house in 20 years. So sad but the only thing she seems to have left in life to grasp onto is to try and impress others with her obvious lies. I don't care though but I did have to put her on ignore because I can take somebody who is so mentally bankrupt that they think by impressing others they make their life better but I couldn't take the hate for others and all the ugliness that comes along with it. Having nothing in life probably brought on the need to impress others and fostered the hate but that is no excuse for not doing something to make people like you and improve yourself to make you a more attractive person. I have always made it a point to teach my children valuable life lessons when they were younger. One of those lessons is that living your life to impress others will do nothing but hurt your own life. I told them that nobody really cares even if they think they do and that kind of thinking will get you into financial trouble and lead to a tough retirement. I gave them a couple of examples of what happens to people by explaining what happened to people who lived in our neighborhood when they were younger but left and I don't think they had any idea why they left. I explained to them that they were so busy buying the latest everything and always having new cars that they couldn't afford that they went broke and lost their house because of it. They hurt themselves very badly by trying to impress others. My children have all seemed to learn their lesson well and are well grounded. I also explained to them that the opposite will make their life easier. The less you can make people think you have the easier your life will be because people won't turn to you when they're in trouble because they think you don't have a lot. This is especially true when it comes to family members and relatives.
The golf tournament not the extremely boring tennis tournament. The usual suspects have to be favored. You know the list, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson. I'm going away from them and pick one I've picked once before for a major but he didn't come through for me. I'm picking Hideki Matsuyama. He's still very young but has quite a bit of experience under his belt and I don't know if this is the week but one of these majors he's going to bust out and win. His game is so impressive tee to green. He could use some improvement in his putting and short shots around the green but he's good enough to overcome that and his good putting stroke may show up. I know Spieth will be one of the top two favorites but I don't think he can win this one. His game is not in good enough shape right now. He's not playing bad but he's not playing the way you need to, to win a major. So Maysuyama is my pick. I just love to watch him swing. Very aggressive yet under control. Tiger Woods was dangling possibly playing the tournament in front of the press but has now announced his game is not good enough right now to compete and will not play. I suspect his game will never again be competitive enough to compete in a major because I think he's lost that fire in his belly and will to do what it takes to try and get his good game back. Wish me luck.
After HRB last earnings report they took a good hit. I checked into them and thought they should have been hit but not as hard as they were hit. I was going to buy the stock yesterday before the close because they were going to report earnings after the bell. I decided against it and I was sorry I didn't after they released their earnings. I thought oh well, you can't get em all. Then I was watching it this morning and when the market opened they sent the stock down some and I thought holly cow, and I jumped all over it. 90 minutes later I sold it for a 13% gain in 90 minutes. There was a bit of luck this time but it just goes to show that there are great opportunities that present themselves quite often and you can make a fortune just taking advantage of those opportunities if you understand what is going on and pay attention. I thought I had missed that one but ended up having a great opportunity dumped right in my lap. I love this game. Makes the weekend so much sweeter.
The Belmont Stakes is this Saturday and post positions have been drawn. Brody's Cause drew post position 12 out of a13 horse field. That post position is just fine for him because no matter what position he drew he would have ended up at or near the back of the field. He's a late runner with little early speed. I'm hoping he will be in good shape and should be flying down the stretch and passing horses. The one negative about him is that Dale Romans is his trainer and of all the big name trainers I think he is the least intelligent of them all. He has done so many things over the years that I just scratch my head over. A good example of his lack of intelligence was the 2014 Kentucky Derby. Before the race he said that California Chrome had no chance of winning the race. That was just a dumb dumb dumb statement. One might think that someone else might win the race but to say a horse that had the record that California Chrome had, had no chance to win is silly. I'm hoping he will do something right this time and have a well rested Brody's Cause in great shape and ready to run because I am going to take my shot on that horse. The early odds on Brody's Cause are 20-1 but I doubt they will stay that high but I would love it if they did. This is by no means a sure thing but I like the risk reward. In reality, it would not surprise me if any of the horses in the race won. They are all close enough that any of the horses that are in top shape could win the race. The way I see the race unfolding is Cherry Wine and Exaggerator leading early in the stretch but Brody's Cause flying and passing those two tiring horses before the finish line. Wish me luck.
These days it doesn't take him long at all anymore to get slapped in the face after buying a stock. He just bought AAPL and along comes Goldman Sachs and lowers their price target and growth expectations. It looks like Pops has no idea what is going on out in that big world anymore. If Pops won't move to The Holiday Shores Retirement Village on his own the workers at Berkshire should pool their money to pay for his residency and forcefully take him there. They would make up for what they spent to put him in there and more with their increased yearly bonus after all the terribly wrong Pops purchases become a thing of the past. The world has passed Pops by and he used to never invest in technology companies because he didn't understand technology but suddenly in his late 80's, he thinks he now understands technology. Its a shame but many times with age comes a deteriorating mind and Pops is proving that to be the case. What's next? Pops buying an 8 track tape player manufacturer?
Now, you can call me flip flopper, reneger, indian giver or whatever you want but if DWSN triples before the year is up since I told you to buy it, I'm rescinding my apology. If I triple your money in less than one year I don't feel like I owe you any apology. It was up another 13% today and that makes it a 136% gainer since I gave it to you about seven months ago. I gave it to you at $3.06 so if it goes to $9.18 in the next five months I am taking my apology back. If I triple your money and still aren't happy because I took my apology back than too bad. Maybe you'll be happy collecting your stinking little 2% a year dividend and that's fine with me. Later Crabcakes.
The Belmont Stakes is a little less than two weeks away on June 11. Nyquist, the winner of the Kentucky Derby will not run in it. I was hoping he would so he would take a big chunk of the betting money but they did what was best for the horse. In the Preakness he showed that he was a very tired horse. In the stretch run at the Preakness he was drifting out and that is the tell tale sign of a horse that is extremely tired and the Belmont is 3/16 of a mile longer than the Preakness. I saw no way he could win the Belmont. The favorite is and will be Exaggerator as long as he doesn't come up with an injury and not run. Exaggerator is probably a somewhat tired horse too with the Belmont being his third race in five weeks. I am going to put my money on BRODY'S CAUSE. He is a longshot at 14-1 right now s a horse that is better than most people believe he is. He is a late runner and will be running at the end and I think may be able to overtake Exaggerator in the stretch. He is by no means a shoe in but I like the risk reward on this one if I can get that 14-1 or better on him. Brody's cause ran in the Derby but sat out the Preakness so he'll be a fresh horse with five weeks rest. There's a number of other horses that have a shot also but I think Brody's Cause is the most talented of the rest and has as good a shot as anyone, including Exaggerator win the race. Stradivari, the horse I bet in the Preakess is also running and although he had a pretty good showing in the Preakness he was a bit more green than I expected and I think will need a few more races before he contends in a race like this, although he has a ton of talent. Nyquist does appear to be the best three year old this year but he's just a very tired horse. Look for him to win his next race later on in the summer though after he gets a good rest. So my money's going on Brody's Cause and you can join me and if not wish me luck.
Finished fourth. That doesn't pay me anything. Oh well, we gave it a shot and got decent odds. He got a bad break with another horse coming out on him early on but doubt he would have won if that hadn't happened. He made a run at the leaders in the stretch but the track and the wide trip just wore him down. Keep an eye on this horse in the future. For all his inexperience he ran a good race and only look for him to improve with more experience. We'll get em next year. Maybe.
Okay, back to sanity. Stradivari is now bouncing between 7-1 and 8-1. I have no idea what happened before but I checked four different places and Stardivari was anywhere from 1-1 to 9-5. I don't know if it was a technical glitch or what but I did read that one person made a super large bet on Stradivari that crashed his odds like that. Could be but I don't know if that is really a fact. Oh well, I feel better about my odds now.
A new development in the Preakness. This is hard to even believe. Suddenly a ton of money has been coming in on Stradivari and he's now the favorite at 3-2 and Nyquist the second favorite at 8-5. Now I don't know what to do. Stradivari is so inexperience and his morning line was 8-1 and Nyquist's morning line was 3-5. I was willing to chance him because the odds made it worth a gamble. The only think I can figure is the trainer and some of his staff and the owner now know they have what is called in the business (a freak horse), that can do what no horse like him should be able to do and are dropping tons of money on him. There really is no other explanation. I don't know if I should cancel my bets or just ride the big money and hope he is somewhat of a lock in the race. This is a development that I never expected. I guess I'll just wait until we get close to the race and decide what I want to do. If the odds do say there I will say for sure that I will cancel my show bet and put that money on the nose.
As the money comes in on the race, Stradivari is now down to 7-1. Its beginning to look like we won't get that 10-1 but I think he will end up drifting up to 8-1. Nyquist is now 4-5 and Exaggerator is 9-5 and that's a bit more support than he should be getting but as I suspected, some bettors are looking at that good race in the mud I was talking about and attracting more money. Go Stradivari.
Preakness Day is here boys and girls. The good news is they're not expecting thunderstorms but the bad news is the long range forecast for rain is coming true. They are getting light rain right now and rain is expected throughout the day and heavy at times. The rain is expected to let up by the time the Preakness goes off but the damage will have already been done. I went back and checked out the races of the horses entered and Exaggerator ran very well in the mud in one of his races and ran away with the race but the competition was not what he will be facing today. That will probably bring a lot more money in on Exxagerator but I still don't like him to win any of the triple crown races although I'm not saying he can't win. Nyquist will still be the favorite and rightfully so but I took my shot with Stradivari. I like his potential and the odds I'll be getting. Right now its looking like around 10-1 odds on him. I like the risk reward ratio on him, although we still don't know a lot about him because he is so lightly raced and hasn't even been in a stakes race with better horses. There's nothing in the race that you could call a sure thing. Makes it interesting and presents one with the opportunity to pick up a good horse at good odds. I've already placed my bets so now I just sit back and wait for the race which isn't for about another 9 hours. I bet Stradivari across the board, in the exacta, in the trifecta and in the superfecta. Come on Stardivari. I didn't bet a lot but with nice odds and if we can collect on some of those exotic wagers we can make a lot of money if he wins. Be there or be square.
Now we have more clarity but more confusion at the same time. Gun Runner will not run in the Preakness because he didn't come out of the Kentucky Derby very well as I expected. That's a shame, the Preakness was his best shot of the three triple crown races. So that helps clarify things. On the other hand they are now saying that there's a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore on Saturday and that brings in confusion. Talk about throwing a wrench into things. There are 11 runners and some have run in the mud and some have not. I'll have to go back and check what horses have run on off tracks but I'll wait and see if the forecast holds up. I do know Nyquist ran on a slightly off track in the Florida Derby and handled it well. I know Stradivari has never run on an off track but his daddy is Madaglia d'Oro and he was a great mudder. So will that talent to run in the slop and not caring that you're getting a face full of mud carry over to Stradivari? We'll just have to wait and see if the rain forecast holds. The post positions were drawn this afternoon and Nyquist drew post position 3 and Exaggerator drew post position 5, while Straivari drew the outside post position at 11. There's not a terrible post position with the smaller field in the Preakness but I would have rather seen Stradivari get that 3 or 5 position. On the other hand, starting on the outside will help keep him out of trouble. I still believe I'm going to go with Stradivari and bet him across the board and in the exotic bets. The horse has tons of talent not to mention speed and endurance but we'll find out just how good he is on Saturday when he steps way up in class and he is well rested, so that's no excuse. Good luck to those betting on the race no matter who you pick.
Now you have a double on DWSN. Again I will apologize for my timing because I'm usually better than that with my timing but once again, I don't feel too bad for you after giving you a double, even if it took 7 or 8 months. If you want to cash in, congratulations but if you want to hold tight you will probably end up with a triple. That call is yours. You must admit, a double in a period of months beats the snot out of taking a beating on WMT day after day, week after week and year after year.