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tipoftheiceburg 35 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 6, 2013 10:08 AM Member since: Nov 11, 2013
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  • The following information is not intended to persuade any investor to buy or sell shares in HIMAX and is only based on my interpretation of analysts interpretation of data already released publicly by the Company in
    previous conference calls.

    Estimated FYE 12/31/2013 Results

    Sales 765MM
    GP 191MM (25%)
    Exp 131MM (17%)
    NP 60MM (8%) (.35 per share on 170MM shares)

    Estimated FYE 12/31/2014 Results

    Sales 1.2 B (56.8% increase over 2013)
    GP 306MM (25.5%)
    Exp 204MM (17%)
    NP 102MM (8.5) (.60 per share on 170MM shares)

    My best guess is that higher quarterly profitability builds in the second half of the year as the Non-Driver business grows to $50MM sales per month. (2MM per month capacity X $25). Google Glass and other headset release dates are still unknown. These estimates assume no growth in display drivers for small/medium sized panels ($100MM per quarter) and a decrease in display drivers for large-sized panels (to $50MM per quarter as reported in Fiscal 2012 3rd quarter results. Non-driver products increase from ($34.5MM to $50MM as discussed above)

    Again, these numbers may or may not be accurate, but I believe that is how the $.35 and $.60 per share analyst consensus is reached as reported by Yahoo.

    IMO the PE multiple that the market (investors) place on HIMAX going forward will be a byproduct of the level of growth/profitability shown by the company each quarter.

  • tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Dec 5, 2013 1:20 PM Flag

    Don't let irrational exuberance take over here. There are still many unknowns here and plenty of time to see them play out. I prefer to invest rather than gamble. I think, IMO, $13 is a rational short term price and the potential to go much higher in the future. The ultimate PE that is placed on this stock has yet to be seen and will depend on the annual projected rate of future growth which no one knows at this time. By the way, companies stop paying dividends if they have a better use for the money, like CAPEX for future growth and R&D. Not saying that they will do this but cases can be made and have been made with other growth companies in the past. Preserve capital and invest it rather than having to raise capital by selling more stock and diluting the share price. Time will tell.

  • tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Dec 5, 2013 6:31 AM Flag

    IMO we are not trading on speculation at these levels. Perhaps if the stock were trading today at 30+times ($18) forward estimated 2014 earnings per share, speculation would certainly be baked into the price. But we are at $11 or 18 times which is very reasonable for a growth company. Here is what we know that is not speculation:

    Investors are interested in meeting one on one with HIMAX.
    Google Glasses are real and people are using them and they work.
    Google invested in HIMAX, not a competitor, and is using their products in Google Glass.
    HIMAX has been growing and operating very profitably and has an excellent financial condition.
    HIMAX has many patents to protect their LCOS products which for now appear to be state of the art.
    HIMAX has many major technology companies as customers and appears to be gaining market share.
    HIMAX is expanding their production facilities. Businesses don't usually build brick and mortar unless they have firm commitments for increased product sales.

    In my mind, with no new concrete numbers to analyze, speculation begins to seep into the price at the 13-15 levels. I think you have to ask yourself how much you are willing to pay given what is known and what is unknown. Right now, IMO, based on what is known and I think that this is what is currently pushing the price higher, $11 per share is certainly a reasonable price to pay and $2 a share of speculation is reasonable for what is not yet known, so my current target price without knowing any other concrete specifics is $13. Not saying I would sell tomorrow if it hits $13 but I wouldn't expect it to rise any higher short term unless there is more known vs unknown. Long term, IMO, HIMAX goes much higher as Wearable Technology gets traction in the world.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Sing it boyz. Harry Boxer says $15 is his next target.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tipoftheiceburg by tipoftheiceburg Dec 4, 2013 3:30 PM Flag

    IMO will hold 11 this week. There is definitely a smell of good news out there.

  • tipoftheiceburg by tipoftheiceburg Dec 3, 2013 3:44 PM Flag

    IMO, as we get closer to year end, more news will be coming. Maybe not from or about HIMAX directly but about Google Glass timeframes and other technology that uses HIMAX LCOS. When it comes is when this smoking volcano will blow its top.

  • tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Dec 3, 2013 3:06 PM Flag

    Everyone's just watching the price go up and speechless.. Nice increase today on only 4MM sales traded. Lots of buyers!!

  • tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Dec 3, 2013 7:10 AM Flag

    IMO why not use the Dell sales model for starters. Buy on the internet or direct from a Google sales affiliate. Cleaner way to do business and much more profitable. Yesterday, was the biggest Cyber Monday in history. It works.

  • IMO healthy profit taking today and back filling in the high 9's. My cut is it will hold in the low 10's by the end of today. Next earning report is early next year. I suspect, as many others, the 4th quarter of this year is a huge transition period for HIMAX. Expanding facilities and building new LCOS inventories for next year when sales of Google Glass and other customer products using LCOS are expected to ramp up. Companies forecast for the 4th quarter will, IMO, be met and will be nothing to write home about as expected. May be the next and perhaps last buying opportunity at these or lower levels depending on what HIMAX forecasts for the 1st half of next year. Good points made recently about reduction in flat screen sales worldwide which I suspect will be discussed in detail on the conference call because of the % of HIMAX's business it represents. However, that's old news that IMO has already be baked into the stock price. I still believe, IMO, and you draw your own conclusions, that the real potential for growth and escalation in the stock price will be the LCOS business and how rapidly it develops. Good Luck.

  • Reply to

    patents ?

    by darb9999 Nov 28, 2013 2:27 AM
    tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Nov 28, 2013 4:02 AM Flag

    Nobody knows the answer to that question IMHO. Many years ago people were asking the same question about CocaCola's patented formula. Did anyone think it was worth what it is worth today, Probably not. Not comparing Himax to CocaCola, just saying that if you have something that is revolutionary and people want it, it will increase in value over time. You can patent anything, but if it has no market value you have nothing but an unprofitable idea. By the way, lots of talk about Himax's patents, has anyone researched them? If so, please weigh in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tipoftheiceburg by tipoftheiceburg Nov 27, 2013 5:48 PM Flag

    Almost 15MM shares traded and up 10%. So why? Clue: People are starting to believe that the Google/Himax
    relationship will soon generate significant profitability and they want to be part owners. IMO, more than short covering today. Little subtitle tidbits, such as GLUU comments, and we have a 10% gain. Just imagine when shipments start to flow to a multiplicity of users where this will go. I am willing to wait it out for the real explosion down the road. Will be exciting to see where wearable technology takes us in the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nothing on Kiplinger about HIMX

    by florascapes Nov 27, 2013 2:10 PM
    tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Nov 27, 2013 2:13 PM Flag

    see my posts. will IMO explain current interest in owning shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tipoftheiceburg by tipoftheiceburg Nov 27, 2013 1:55 PM Flag

    Improved volume. Nice order book today - buying all the way up. IMO we will hold 10 level this week. Perhaps major news releases coming shortly.

  • tipoftheiceburg by tipoftheiceburg Nov 27, 2013 11:28 AM Flag

    Am always interested in reading your posts because they are factual and represent clear thinking. The rest of the posts on this board are not worth reading. That's whats great about the "ignore user" option. I think both of you are right on about the long term potential of HIMAX.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    TAKEOVER PRICE : What would Google pay for Himax?

    by trader530 Sep 18, 2013 3:45 PM
    tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Nov 27, 2013 11:12 AM Flag

    My prediction is that HIMAX will not sell to anyone for 27.50 or anything close to it. This company has the potential to run wild for as long as their LCOS patents are in place (10 years). IMO The patents alone are worth much more than 27.50 per share. IMO there will be legal battles over protecting the patents from scavengers. Go HIMAX!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tipoftheiceburg by tipoftheiceburg Nov 27, 2013 11:00 AM Flag

    IMO Reality is taking hold as investors are beginning to understand the importance of HIMAX's patents to the next leg of evolving technology. Google is not going to be the only player but guess what, everyone wants what HIMAX has developed, so let the big players compete while HIMAX supplies them all. This is only "thetipoftheiceburg".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HIMAX Stock Price

    by tipoftheiceburg Nov 25, 2013 6:57 AM
    tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Nov 26, 2013 5:36 PM Flag

    No lie, guy, will go to the sky, don't defy, surely a buy, cause of Google eye. You will sigh, if you don't buy! (Stupid replies deserve stupid replies). Bye, bye. You are now on "ignore" status, so don't reply.

  • tipoftheiceburg by tipoftheiceburg Nov 25, 2013 6:57 AM Flag

    What's keeping HIMAX stock price below 10 IMO:

    Current PE
    Fear of more bad news before good news (expected weak 4th quarter during plant expansion)
    No actual sales volume in Google Glass to date (still in marketing stages and testing)
    Weakness in large screen TV sales (large part of HIMAX business)
    Rapid rise in stock over a short period of time
    No longer trading on speculation and hype (now it's show me the money)

    Need I say more. This is a long term investment in the future of wearable technology. The potential here could be revolutionary. The real value of HIMAX is in their patents of the LCOS technology. That's what brought Google to the table and that's what brought me to the table as an investor. It's a big table and there is still plenty of room to join the party.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Nov 25, 2013 6:38 AM Flag

    As I said in a previous post, Hedge Fund Performance is key to attracting new investors. The Dalton group are smart people - buy at $1 and sell at $10 but also hold a major investment in HIMAX to reap future rewards. Take the profits and invest in the next 1-10 trade. Why not! Many of the other HIMAX have done the same.

  • Reply to

    18 Glass2 available on e bay.

    by sbacchus2003 Nov 23, 2013 1:57 AM
    tipoftheiceburg tipoftheiceburg Nov 23, 2013 4:39 AM Flag

    Sellers? Who are they and how much did they pay? I see initial price resistance @ the $1,500 level for the general public. Perhaps, initially more in demand by businesses, hospitals, counties, etc to reduce operating costs and improve efficiencies. Having said that, there are always buyers of Mercedes Benz and Louis Vuitton $1,500 handbags. We'll see if individuals pay to play.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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