With NFLX at 96, the Sept 85/95 call spread could be bought for around 6.15
Breakeven price of 91.15
A max profit of 62%
Minimal drawdown should NFLX collapse to the 80s.
Are you doing call spreads, either short or long term? With VXX at 15.90, I see where the Sept 17/18 call spread could be bought for around 0.25 This would give you a max potential profit of 300% I am thinking about doing this as a hedge for my long market positions.
On of the analysts on CNBC today is predicting a DOW of 20k by year end.
If the market can make a new high on this leg up, 20k would appear to be a reasonable target.
Today's call/put ratio for UVXY is 2.55 to 1.00
If anyone is buying calls, take a look at the spreads. The May 20, 14/18 call spread can be bought for less than 2.00 with UVXY at 18.02
"Allergan price target lowered to $265-$270 from $345-$350 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo cut its price target on Allergan (AGN) after the U.S. Treasury proposed regulations limiting corporate inversions. The firm says that the new regulations could put Allergan's merger with Pfizer (PFE) at risk. However, the firm says that if the deal does fall apart, Allergan will have "strong earnings growth, a great pipeline...and a solid balance sheet" in the wake of its deal with Teva (TEVA). Wells adds that the news will probably "weigh on sentiment" for the entire pharmaceuticals sector. However, it keeps an Outperform rating on Allergan"
I went to a Chipotle in Northern Virginia today at 1:30 The line extended to the entrance door(around 30 people). I was a bit surprised since there were only around a dozen in line 2 weeks ago. But that was around 3:30 last time so that may explain the difference. But it does appear that customers are beginning to return. Since this is partly a psychological hurdle they have to overcome, perhaps they should try to change their appearance. A simple and cheap change such as just going from black to white T-shirts could be a start to change their image. The customers need something to visualize what has changed. The idea is to give the restaurant a cleaner image which could convey the concept of cleaner food.
Today's retest of yesterday's 25.75 low was perfect. Today's price action is also similar to Mar 21.
Are you planning to sell at 33? If so, have you thought of just selling short the July 25 puts and collect around 6 in premium? If VRX were to just stay at this price level, you would not make any money holding shares. However, you would keep the full option premium as long as it is above 25. You could also buy some lower strike puts such as the July 10 for disaster insurance in case of bankruptcy.
773 traded today with an open interest of 22,868.
There is also active buying of the Jan2018, 80 calls.
If you notice, oil had bottomed in Feb 2009 and also in Feb 2016. A 30 year seasonality chart will show that Feb happens to be the month when oil is at it's lowest price for the year. The chart also shows the price of oil peaking around Sept-Oct. I would like for it to drop to the low 9s to start trading it again.
It looks like traders may be hedging their market position with UVXY. The open interest call/put ratio for SPY is 1 : 2. There are more than 2 puts for every 1 call. I would be more concerned for the market if there were 2 calls for every 1 put. Also, the cash position for fund managers are at a high level. There is probably a lot of portfolio re-balancing going into the end of the quarter. The managers may be worried about risk of the market moving to the upside while being in a large cash position.
There is always the risk that contango will turn into backwardation, where the nearby months are higher than the further out months.
In 2013, when the near month August 2013 contract settled at $108.22 per barrel, the July 2014 contract which was 11 month out, closed at just $95.56.
Did you end up covering your short puts or just let the shares be put to you? This happened to me with USO when I was selling puts. I held on to the position too long and ended up having shares put to me at 10.00 I continued selling puts as the price dropped so I was able to balance out the loss in my shares. But do this only if you are sure the stock has reached a bottom.
Excellent call! Looks like the bottom is in.
The previous major low was on Feb 19, 2009. Must be something about Feb to cause the lows in oil.
Are you saying that anyone trading the miners should just ignore the price of gold?
One is the commodity while the other is the business of producing the commodity. This is similar to comparing oil to XLE. Of course they will not track precisely together, but close enough where they should not be ignored.
GDX has just made a new 52 week high. GLD has failed to do so today. Keep an eye on the 122.37, 52 week high for GLD. It will have to break above this level for GDX to have any sustained rally.
Actually we should be glad there is a class of very wealthy people. The top 1 percent of California resident income tax filers paid just over 50 percent of overall revenues collected in 2012. This amount should be even higher for the current year.
The April 1, 35.00 puts look good with a bid/ask of 3.70/4.10 with VRX at 38.75
I am looking at the June 45/55 call spread. A chance to make 2x if it goes back up to 55.
Who are the buyers? Maybe Ackman is adding to his position.