It should not come as a surprise if we later find out that Buffett has been buying at these lows. He has always said to be greedy when others are fearful.
Today, one trader bought 20,000 of the Dec 2016, 20/30 call spreads for 4.05
His profit target range is 24.05-30.00
He must be very confident that a deal will be announced before Dec exp to have placed such a large trade (over $8 million).
This morning, one trader has been making multiple big trades in what appears to be the following spread for a debit of 0.49:
Long Sep21, 16 call
Short Sep21, 21 call
Short Sep21, 13 put
If held to exp, VIX would have to be below 12.51 or above 21.49 to show a profit.
10,500 of the Dec 2016 20/27 call spreads were bought for 1.20
1,000 of the Jan 2018 20/30 call spreads were bought for 2.48
At 1:45pm, over 22k of the Dec 20 calls have traded
One trader bought 399 of the Jan 2018, 90/130 call spreads for a debit of 24.65
He might have done better with the Jan 2018, 110/120 call spread for a debit of around 6.10
This would provide around the same profit potential but with a lower target price.
25,000 of the Oct 21, 90 calls were bought for 0.63
1,000 of the Aug 19, 81.5 calls were bought for 0.98