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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Message Board

twineberg2 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 25, 2013 2:55 PM Member since: Jul 19, 2012
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  • twineberg2 twineberg2 Jan 25, 2013 2:55 PM Flag

    mistyped should be $120 calls.

  • twineberg2 twineberg2 Jan 25, 2013 2:55 PM Flag

    I know was looking at the $10 calls three days ago for $.18 a contract. Wish I had the balls to take what I thought was a suckers bet. The payout closing out the contract today would be huge, last count something like 240 times the investment returned before taxes.

  • twineberg2 twineberg2 Jan 15, 2013 3:10 PM Flag

    Its a novel idea that I can see what restaurants my so called facebook friends have liked. But its not the same as full on reviews especially of restaurants and stores. Unless Facebook is going to completely take over the space and institute their own review and star rating I don't see the FB announcement as having any material effect whatsoever on Yelp's prospects.

    Frankly I am neither long or short Yelp at the moment as I just haven't researched the numbers enough but if I were a long I would use today as a buying opportunity.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    This is irrational selling is a gift.

    by dawgsense Dec 4, 2012 8:40 PM
    twineberg2 twineberg2 Dec 5, 2012 10:17 AM Flag

    I don't think its a question of whether or not consumers like the service especially when its free to them. I personally use the free version all the time.

    Its a question of whether this company can ever be profitable enough to justify the current valuation. With the royalty structure, economics of the current ad model. and lack of barriers to entry, it doesn't look good right now. It certainly makes the stock even at today's prices highly speculative.

    If the price got punished enough I would buy some stock for speculation. But I would like to see it closer to the $3 or $4 range before I would make that bet.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • twineberg2 twineberg2 Dec 4, 2012 5:36 PM Flag

    Also the RPM is much worse for mobile than desktops unsurprisingly as its much easier to act on an ad on your desktop than on a tiny smart phone. And yet they claim they are still plugging ahead in mobile because they see great promise in it. Wow the writing is on the wall.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Really blaming a cautiousness of big advertisers because of the fiscal cliff? Even though November and December are huge retail sales months and big advertising periods. Isn't a weakening economy more plausible than the fiscal cliff?

    Me thinks they'll actually beat in quarter 4. Interesting to see how this opens tomorrow given what its done in the aftermarket.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    open tomorrow at $6.09!

    by mralfa Dec 3, 2012 8:15 PM
    twineberg2 twineberg2 Dec 4, 2012 3:43 PM Flag

    Amazing that this thing is only down 6.5% or so on such news. Thought it would at least go down below $7.00 a share.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Hello 6's...I mean 9's

    by qaqawsws1234 Dec 4, 2012 9:29 AM
    twineberg2 twineberg2 Dec 4, 2012 12:16 PM Flag

    And besides I would venture that most "shorts" actually do so by buying out of the money puts instead of classic shorting. With options there is no additional money required. You pay for your bet and then it either pays out, breaks even, or loses.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    60 minutes report absolutely devastating

    by marcpw Dec 3, 2012 12:10 AM
    twineberg2 twineberg2 Dec 3, 2012 9:59 AM Flag

    In addition to a Medicare Fraud investigation a bevy of lawsuits will now result as anyone who's loved one got sick or died from a hospital acquired infection now has fresh evidence that suggests that perhaps their loved one didn't actually need to be admitted. Kudos to the physicians for potentially opening themselves up to liability to take on this egregious wrong.

  • Reply to

    Look At This HMA Exec Babbling Like a Fool

    by vincent90157 Dec 2, 2012 8:02 PM
    twineberg2 twineberg2 Dec 3, 2012 9:50 AM Flag

    Remember ex employee physicians would get the crap sued out of em for defamation and so would CBS if they didn't have a reasonable basis in what they were saying. If HMA doesn't announce they are immediately taking legal action against CBS Viacom and the former employee physicians then you know the story is based upon the truth. The denial job in the absence of the announcement of an aggressive litigation strategy indicates HMA is full of you know what.

  • Reply to

    Look At This HMA Exec Babbling Like a Fool

    by vincent90157 Dec 2, 2012 8:02 PM
    twineberg2 twineberg2 Dec 3, 2012 9:40 AM Flag

    I love how they are doing the standard deny line. Look HMA no one believes that so many former ER physicians are going to make up admissions quotas or medicare fraud. Then there is the former company executive under oath. Yeah he has his own agenda but he's still under oath and wouldn't end his career by lawsuit if he didn't have some evidence and the truth to back up his allegations. I hope that the company insiders go to federal pound me in the a%^ prison for their evil and greed.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Really if this company can't make money now how is more scale truly going to help? And with all this potential competition eating away at future user growth?

    Really you're willing for it to take 89 years to get your investment back? Its too rich for me. If this stock corrected to into the 3's I'd pick it up as a speculative stock. But this high a multiple for so much uncertainty and a flawed business model that scale won't help. The only thing that could help is a lowering of the royalty rates but that doesn't seem to be in the cards.

    Who knows what earnings will do next week. Wouldn't be surprised if they beat, met, or missed estimates! Currently short and doing allright. Of course will get potentially creamed if earnings beat.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Mon closed @ $ 88.05 today, sell this stock

    by nasdaqrtq Nov 5, 2012 11:19 PM
    twineberg2 twineberg2 Nov 6, 2012 12:15 PM Flag

    I don't like the Monsanto Company. I think they're essentially evil. But I would guess that yesterday and today's run-up are partially because it looks like Proposition 37 is not going to pass. It has been polling lower and lower. The only hope for the Yes on Proposition 37 would be if the polls are totally off because for instance certain voting segments in CA don't have land lines to be surveyed. But its a slim hope.

    Monsanto alone has spent roughly $8.1 million to defeat it as part of a corporate coalition that raised at least $44 million to defeat proposition 37. That should show you how important the company thinks the proposition not passing is to its earnings. I noticed a couple of analysts have upgraded recently which I think is related to the polling.

    I took a straddled position on the stock with some out of the money puts and some out of the money calls that expire ten days after Today's election although short overall. Right now the calls are worth more than I paid for them though still out of the money. The puts have all lost most of what was paid for them and still out of the money.

    If for some reason Proposition 37 were to pass I would suspect that Monsanto stock would tank at the opening tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to


    by pu_2664 Oct 26, 2012 2:01 PM
    twineberg2 twineberg2 Oct 26, 2012 3:22 PM Flag

    I think what all these competitors entering organically ( creating their own streaming services from scratch) it shows you that P is still overvalued. If it was under valued then it would be cheaper to acquire than start your own from scratch.

    True apple entering the space might enable a lowering of the royalties. But it would also help all the other new competitors. More competition is going to hurt profitability.

    This stock already has a forward P/E of 100. That valuation is simply too high for a stock whose long term profitability is so threatened by no real barriers to entry. While some early adopters may be loyal I think most people are going to go for the best service for the least amount of cost.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • twineberg2 twineberg2 Oct 25, 2012 6:47 PM Flag

    Thanks for pumping this stock! I made 3x my money on my out of the money puts today that I bought yesterday. Keep up the good work!

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Has anyone seen any analysis on what the effect of passage or non passage of this initiative in a very large market segment would have on short to long term earnings?

    I ask because Syngenta is listed as one of the big funders of the No on 37 campaign currently blanketing the formerly Golden State. I assume they view its potential passage as negative to their earnings. Would the market react negatively to passage on Nov 7( the day after the election?)

    I am not interested in political views regarding whether one should vote for or against it. I would like to know what board members think regarding potential changes in share price or earnings short to long term.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Has anyone seen any analysis of the effect of passage or non passage on the short to long term PEP earnings?

    Pepsi Co has been one of the large funders against the initiative along with MON, KO, Dow agri , Syngenta, etc, etc. So I assume its passage would be negative for their earnings in at least the short term?

    I am not interested in your political views re whether to vote for or against this initiative. I am interested in any analysis on its potential impact on the share price November 7, 2012 .

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I was wondering if anyone has seen any analysis on what short or long term effect this could have on KO earnings? Would the market for KO stock react on November 7 if the proposition passes?

    The reason I ask is that Coca-Cola has spent a significant sum opposing the measure along with Pepsi co, Monsanto, Dow Agri etc. etc. Therefore I assume they would view its passage as being negative for earnings.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • twineberg2 twineberg2 Oct 24, 2012 11:31 PM Flag

    It sounds like there may be more to the issue than the fear based alternative news likes to peddle. And while I am reconsidering my personal stance and how I will vote I am trying to guess whether you'd see a share price drop November 7th if it passes or possibly even a share price pop in the event that it fails to pass.

    The GM seed business division seems to represent around 50% of the revenue if I am remembering the earnings announcement correctly. So obviously passage of the proposition could decimate earnings in the longer term. I am curious if the stock market would react strongly to passage or non passage.

    I am contemplating buying out of the money put options and out of the money call options that expire November 16 to take care of either eventuality. I have a feeling there is more downside risk of it passing than upside potential if it doesn't pass.

    Does anyone think that analyst may downgrade the stock if the proposition passes?

  • I am curious what board member's think would be the effect of a passage of Proposition 37 in California which would require the labeling of many GM foods. Monsanto has spent Millions on the anti-37 campaign and its starting to have a real effect on the polling.

    Proposition 37 has gone from 70% in favor to around 48% in favor and the state is being saturated by anti-37 advertisements everywhere.

    I have seen statements by GM seed companies saying that labeling is a death knell to the product. I believe labeling of the Rgbh hormone in milk totally killed the market for that cow hormone.

    does anyone think since its now less certain that Proposition 37 will pass that if it does pass that we could see a decent immediate drop in the MON share price? Or alternatively do you think that its already factored into the price?

    No one seems to be doing any objective analysis its all purely political as to whether one is for or against this ballot proposition. In the interest of full disclosure I am personally for it but trying to get an idea. So far intrade has not made a market in the proposition's passage either. No one really seems to care about a potentially huge factor effecting the marketability of the seeds product line and the roundup and other herbicide and pesticides.

    Sentiment: Hold

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