way oversold? They are issuing new stock that effectively increases the shrs O/S by 50%, which mean the SP shd drop 33%.
When announced, the SP was about 12, fair price would be 8, mkt dropped very big, oil dropped big, so well under 8 looks reasonable from a straight mathematical analysis, yet it's at 9.65.
I can't see it as oversold, it seems overbought to me, people have not yet thot out the refinancing.
Never fall in love. Never think you know more. You don't.
When you own a stock that is doing badly, sell it. That "category" stuff is for text books, not successful investors.
With a click, you can get back into the stock. Why take more and more losses?
I have sold a few times, and today was the last of my shrs. I doubt any real turn around is coming, and any bounce will be muted, and sold.
re GE, remember that he was DRYS, and ORIG was "built" with DRYS $$, as part of DRYS, then sold off for only a portion of what it cost. DRYS shareholders got screwed. He will do that to anyone for his own good.
with such insightful analysis, it's a wonder you aren't completely broke.
Back in 08? Was that when it was 70 or 80/sh? I had it way back when it was very hi, and some guy on the MB identified himself as a broker of dry bulk loads, the Baltic Index was something like 2700, and this guy said sell!! And posted for a couple weeks about the declining index.
I listened, I have no courage, I'll sell any drop! Thank God, DRYS went to 10 in about a few months, a real brutal beating!!
says SLB and others in the know. They point the the number of active rigs in this country, down from 1600+ to something like 400 or less.
That drop in production will, in time, drop WW production, and while production drops, demand increases every year.
I have no idea of what the price will be at any point, I just know that less supply, with increasing demand, will raise prices.
"I like insider ownership"
This is a 2 sided fraud foisted on the US shareholder. I personally hate insider ownership. Here's why.
First, a good portion of those shrs are probably from the exercise of options, and it could be those options were about to expire, or they were on a sell schedule. Nothing wrong with that, is there?
yes, there is.
First, the BoD grants options. What right do they have to give away chunks of the business that I own part of? They do it bcse, on many boards, they directors have very large option grants themselves.
Every time one of those options are exercised, the stock pool is diluted. The exercise of options is the #1 contributor to the diff between "GAAP" and "non-GAAP" earnings.
In some extreme cases, like new tech companies and biotechs, that dilution can be a very silent 10-20%/yr.
That means a company needs to grow eps 10-20% before a dime flows to the shareholders.
My second complaint is that mgmt shd be compensated for their best efforts in their comp plan, not in stock options. The greatest mgmt mind of the 20th century (peter Drucker) wrote a book (he was a Harvard guru) called Managing for Success, and it outlined how to align goals and get results. His methodology worked for many companies in the 70s and 80s, but by then, stock options took over.
Now, they all manage for ST stock option targets.
Why are execs given such huge awards? Bcse the BoD approves them, and they get them too.
I once knew many people who say on boards of hi tech companies. They all told me they were making more on the stock options of the companies they did the BoD work for, than they were making on their full time job. That was back in the mid to late 90s. But they were pulling in 7 figures by exercising grants of companies other than the one they worked for.
Disgusting, the whole mess.