From my rose colored glasses....
I guess I can understand or buy into anyway, the theory that the recent surge and volume on the 30th was 'window dressing', though we have never been a 'window dressing' stock in the past. Big jumps in SP over a few months will do that. But the even larger surge on the 1st? But who window dresses on the 1st day of a quarter? Maybe they do, you guys would know before me..
If you have followed EXEL over the years we have rarely had a large spike in volume and SP that was sustained. How often have we lamented that the SP hardly moves with good news (and a lot of it) August through January a great example. No, to a large extent much of this good news has seemed to be baked in. And the exception has been big surprises; COMET read-out (to the down-side), METEOR read-out and CABOSUN to the up-side. And these were Phase 3/2 trials. The 'approvals' all baked in, the partnerships baked in, the ASCO presentations baked in. I know there are exceptions, but I'm talking about large sustainable moves, like on July 1st. It can't be a trial read-out, and can't be window dressing. So what possible big 'surprise' can this move portend?? Something big...
MY opinion anyway..
I know I once held the identical opinion to you, (identical!) prior to the METEOR read out that it made no sense for a company to acquire EXEL with a Phase 3 trial readout around the corner, lest the trial fail and now you have made a big costly mistake. Ernie quickly, soundly and quite sharply rebuked that opinion, citing other acquisitions made under similar circumstances. Maybe we're a bit more of a known quantity now and the risk of a CABO trial is much lower. I'd be interested in hearing Ernie and other's comments again..
You could be right. But I guess my point is these type conferences, and these type of implications, and discussion of potential use cases, etc., etc, are the examples of all the 'good news' events that have flowed thru these message boards and press releases that I referred to that never moved the SP or volume in the past (not like 6/30 or 7/1 anyway).. I'm not sure the positive Meteor readout showed that type of volume though I may be wrong.
But you may be right. Either way, we're happy...
Assume for the moment that August 15th arrives and in fact EXEL has met the threshold of trading at or above $6.91 for 20 of the last 30 trading days. And assume that EXEL redeems the notes with cash or equity or combination of both. Is there a consensus of where the SP goes? With the monkey of the debt off our back, that in itself has to extremely positive.. But does it matter in what way the notes are redeemed? If all stock, it's a dilution. If all cash, that impacts cash on hand and all those implications. Any empirical evidence from other cos that have managed to redeem these convertible bonds (recognizing that each cos situation different)? Any thoughts?
"my mistake to discuss convertible bonds with shorts". You've said this before. Just who is it that you believe is short this stock on this board with whom you are having this discussion? Any of those who were short this stock and participated on this board have been long gone for weeks if not months?
You are not an idiot. I think my friends were rather harsh here given your honest mistake, especially considering your 'strong buy' profile. . You set up alerts for EXEL and then you this alert. Maybe you thought it was a distribution warehouse or something? I can see that.
What were you guy guys thinking?
Then again your 'so called smart posters' comment was kinda douchey..
For what its worth I did reply to this clown with feedback. To the extent that we all send him a note asking for the old message board will help.
I know Joe has expressed his opinion on Juno and I'm sure its mostly to do with the CEO. Its certainly a viable reason. But I can tell you, I have dumped a lot into 3 of these CAR-Ts: JUNO (under water do to most recent news), KITE, and BLUE. In each I could have made some handsome profits already, but like EXEL, my strategy is very long. But the short story is this, from my perspective. All these companies and their therapies are showing great promise, with incredible responses. But unlike most other oncology drug, these are actually cures for cancer. Its incredible technology and notwithstanding JUNOs last issue, they seem to already be making progress on the downside risks associated with the technologies. I believe the upside on these therapies will dwarf what is typically seen today in pharma/biotech. I think I may jump on Bellicium as well. My two cents. Hope all is well. BTW, a lot of our friends are now posting on Investor Village. I haven't seen you there..
Both JUNO and KITE use(d) the same ablative therapy pre-conditioning, fludarabine and cyclophosphamide only KITE is at much lower doses. JUNO had recently introduced fludarabine (at higher doses than KITE), and contend it was the fludarabine that caused the neurotoxicity. The FDA apparently agreed and after JUNO told the FDA we are eliminating it form the pre-conditioning regimen, the FDA lifted the hold. At this point I think KITE is the better horse vs. JUNO but we'll see