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Claude Resources, Inc. Message Board

ultraific3 290 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2016 1:14 AM Member since: Oct 7, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Back for a quick trade

    by billsmodel Jul 20, 2016 10:45 AM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 21, 2016 1:14 AM Flag

    And yes, the Chinese are making substantive inroads into Kyrgyzstan both politically and economically and would have no hassles owning assets there.

  • Reply to

    Back for a quick trade

    by billsmodel Jul 20, 2016 10:45 AM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 21, 2016 1:10 AM Flag

    China Moly is still hunting for assets.

    Even after acquiring the 56% stake of Tenke Fungarume from FCX for $2.65bb.

    The acquisition of a combined CG-TC gives them gold assets, copper-gold assets, and moly assets (plus roaster) in a market outside China.

    China Moly only produces moly concentrate. They don't have a roaster, and have little or no moly sales outside of China. They would like to change that.

    I'm sure they were sniffing TC recently as over 30 companies were bargain hunting it.

  • ICSG reported copper supply & demand numbers for April 2016 today:

    Copper market is in a deficit of 110k mt for April 2016.

    YTD, the deficit has climbed to 145k mt.

    It will continue growing as China is consuming much more copper than the idiot investment bank commodity analysts (or Bloomberg Semi-Intelligence) want to believe.

    Bloomtard tried to spin some nonsense late yesterday about an increase in Chinese smelting output YTD thru June.

    Their story related to the smelting of copper from imported copper concentrate. Whether the copper concentrate is refined in China or where the concentrate comes from (Chile, Peru, US, Mexico, or Australia) matters not. No net increase in world copper supply occurs, since there is no corresponding increase in copper concentrate.

    I see the market is back on their "Yellen raising rates again" fetish.

    Copper going higher for the balance of the year. It's cheap and the Chinese are importing it (in all it's forms) like mad. China's imports of mined copper (not including scrap) are up +26.5% thru YTD June 2016. That's up almost 1mm mt. vs. 2015's rate of import.

    And it's being used, because it's not swelling worldwide inventory if it were not being used.

    Post merger, CG will benefit from rising copper prices by a factor of 84.0625% of market prices. Formula: market price x 1- (.1875% x 85%).

    TC' Mount Milligan will prove to be a very low cost gold producer on a cash and AISC basis.

    It will help EPS and thus the shares of the merged company. We beleaguered TC shareholders need some good news, and ultimately higher copper prices will deliver some to the merged company.

    ICSG = International Copper Study Group.
    They have a website and are a wealth of unbiased information regarding the copper market.
    Unlike Barclays, Goldman Sachs, BofA, Bloomtard, and Reuters.
    Quarterly reporting is coming in for the big miners.........

    Thus far, Rio Tinto, BHP, and Anglo American have reported Q2.

    The super mines of Chile are struggling.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 19, 2016 10:55 PM Flag

    Private:

    Yep, you are correct. The expropriation policy lapsed in Nov 2012. Their only recourse would be international arbitration.

    They should sell this mine to the Chinese gold companies.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 19, 2016 2:02 PM Flag

    Combined company will benefit down road w. higher moly prices.

    One way (eventual re-opening of at least TC mine) or the other (improve prices on disposal of assets).

    Best we can hope for.

  • Reply to

    Swamp isn't draining properly

    by carlrich Jul 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 19, 2016 1:39 PM Flag

    Yes it is.

    Your choice of words is very poor, Carl.

    Price action in European markets is always soft in the summer, because the European steel mills throttle back for "vacation season" so none of the mills buy much steel formula ingredients in the "7-11 spot market" during the summer, opting instead to take contracted delivery, direct from producers to fulfill their reduced summer needs.

    So nobody is buying anything in the spot market.

    The spot market is the "convenience market" where maybe 5-10% of moly is transacted. The vast bulk of moly is purchased direct from mine producers or roasters. Not at the late-night convenience store. LME volume of the world market is a pittance.

    However, pricing is determined by what traffics thru that spot market "convenience store" and much of that activity occurs in Rotterdam, Netherlands, or in Seoul, S. Korea.

    IMOA posted Q1 2016 results.

    You must have missed it.

    You should go and spend a few hours, pulling up all their quarterly updates since 2012, printing them out, and layer them together in a spreadsheet. You'll have to watch out for the typical quarterly adjustment to prior quarters they tend to make in subsequent quarters, but that's not too big of a hassle.

    You will see that world moly output in Q1 2016 is the lowest on record since early 2011. At present output trends, moly production won't top 480mm lbs. in 2016. That's down sharply from '14, and even '15.

    The Chinese are throwing in the towel on marginal output.

    As for by-product producers, Rio Tinto had yet another "stellar" quarter at Bingham Canyon. Thru H1 2016, their moly is down -94% vs. H1 2015. Low grades, and low mill thru put at KUC. Sierra Gorda moly output has collapsed in April and May. Something is going on there. Los Pelambres has some issues it appears. Only Chuqui and Cerro Verde have added material amounts of moly by-product this year. And I don't know how long Chuqui can keep walking on water. Eventually, it can't.

  • Reply to

    Ask yourself this question.

    by gatr55 Jul 7, 2016 10:37 AM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 11, 2016 11:43 AM Flag

    CG traded at $20 for a brief point in 2012.

    Now gold prices are rising again.

  • Reply to

    In favor of Centerra deal

    by theodore.vecchione Jul 7, 2016 5:07 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 8, 2016 12:44 AM Flag

    Millions of mines don't get expropriated by rascal countries on a yearly basis, either.

    There is probably only one "official" mine in all of Kyrgyzstan.

    Kumtor.

    The insurance companies would have backstop coverage, reinsurance, and would pay the claims that Centerra might have.

    The insurance companies would then pursue actions against the country directly, and would recoup their out-of-pocket that way.

    Generally those actions are seizure actions, enforcing judgments issued in international forums.

    All the dore from Kumtor is sold to the local gov't, and the state-owned refinery then sells the bulk of that refined gold to China, more than likely. In exchange for imports that the likely come from China.

    Chinese parties would be targets of the insurance companies, and Lloyds tentacles certainly stretch deeply into China.

    You're inventing excuses and hysteria to continue your rants. Give it a rest.

    China is not going anywhere.

  • Reply to

    Marcellousgashound = fake, multiple ID board clown

    by ultraific3 Apr 28, 2016 10:35 AM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 10:03 PM Flag

    Bumpty bumpski...........!!!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    In favor of Centerra deal

    by theodore.vecchione Jul 7, 2016 5:07 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 9:38 PM Flag

    Private,

    Come on man.

    Take solace that Perron will likely never work in the mining industry again, because you know that Scott Perry is going to toss this clown out the door first chance he gets.

    The only tragedy in the whole affair is that the bald monkey (from Quebec........of all places !!!!!).........gets a severance.

    Bring a suit against Perron for unjust enrichment post-merger if it makes you feel better..........

    It'll likely get tossed, but there's ways to torment former executives again, and again, and again........for kicks.

    Connect the dots.

    Or you can call you're NYC buddies and go old school on him.

    You have that power.
    Use it wisely, if it makes you feel better.

  • Reply to

    CG

    by willly.wallly Jul 7, 2016 3:21 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 9:27 PM Flag

    And then Centerra collects a big payday from the insurers (namely Lloyd's) who've written expropriation coverage against just such an event.

    Go grab a sandwich and beer and go watch the skirts pass by on those Miami sidewalks.

    You'll feel better then.

  • Reply to

    Probably a stupid question but,

    by kkuch4 Jul 7, 2016 6:28 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 9:12 PM Flag

    That's the right attitude.

    You can castigate the bald headed ffkker (Perron) for putting TC into a position that necessitated "giving the company away for a song".

    Why the morons on the board of TC hired this joker (whose only real mining experience was underground mining in reality) anyway, is beyond me.

  • Reply to

    In favor of Centerra deal

    by theodore.vecchione Jul 7, 2016 5:07 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 8:59 PM Flag

    Winner winner, chicken dinner........

    Eventually, Kyrgyzstan takes the share / JV swap.

    More revenue for them. That's obvious.

    Less shares outstanding for Centerra, post-swap.

    Likely less hassles for operations at the Kumtor mine w. that route.

    I can deal with less revenue from Kumtor if the benefit is approx. 25% less shares o/s, as Kumtor will be 50% of Centerra earnings post-TC merger, and 50% of that is 25%. Post merger w. TC, that's about their % holding in Centerra w. new dilution, so the impact is really a wash.

    Market would like that, and given how ffkked up Kyrgyzstan is, that swap likely would only occur post-TC merger, so lowly TC holders would benefit by a proportional increase in their respective stake in the whole pie.

    I can live with that.

    If Kumtor is seized by way of expropriation, Centerra gets paid off on it's expropriation insurance policies. Getting that money will take a little legal work to beat up the insurers to fulfill policy obligations, but it's a nice payday too.

    Contrary to some pouters, this deal isn't really all that bad given the dreaded alternatives..........

  • Reply to

    In favor of Centerra deal

    by theodore.vecchione Jul 7, 2016 5:07 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 8:49 PM Flag

    Perhaps Canadian law was your calling, one that you missed while toiling away at the grossly mismanaged Eastman Kodak dinosaur.............?

  • Reply to

    In favor of Centerra deal

    by theodore.vecchione Jul 7, 2016 5:07 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 8:46 PM Flag

    Kyrgyzstan: Investigators Link Coup Plots and Kumtor
    Eurasianet [dot] org
    June 14, 2016 - 4:07am

    Key Excerpts:

    Kyrgyzstan has arrested yet another once-powerful politician on charges of plotting a coup — and in a surprising twist, authorities have linked their fight to quash a purported surge of political instability with alleged corruption at an economically crucial gold mine.

    Finally, there is the matter of whether the government will grant Centerra a license to operate the mine beyond June 30.

    In the event of a license impasse leading to a stop work order at the mine, metal workers trade union leader Eldar Tadjibayev has said over 2,000 local workers and their families may be ready to rally.

    Those are bigger numbers than the opposition figures arrested on coup charges ever seemed capable of getting.

    ==============

    Centerra has been shaken down by two former regimes of Kyrgyzstan, since 1998.

    Licenses to operate were provided in late June, by the gov't.

    The jobs at Kumtor are high-paying, and the locals want them. They won't go down without a fight.

    Relax a little.

    Centerra has expropriation insurance coverage on Kumtor, but at the end of the day, the gov't will likely take the JV deal to avoid major hassles and pariah status that will squelch foreign investment in Kyrgyzstan. That means less shares of CG outstanding. If they nationalize Kumtor, Centerra gets a big payday from insurers, after a bit of wrangling to force them to honor the policies.

    At the end of the day, Potato Putz gets tossed aside.

    The only bad thing is the dork collects his severance ($2.7mm) plus whatever vig (bonuses awarded him).

    May he crash his motorcycle into the first moose to cross his path. I'd think that bit of misfortune is fair.......

    Enjoy.

  • Reply to

    In favor of Centerra deal

    by theodore.vecchione Jul 7, 2016 5:07 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 5:31 PM Flag

    "The resulting company looks like it will be worth holding onto with a strong portfolio, strong balance sheet and significantly reduced international risk."

    Indeed. Amen.

    CG stock is cheap. Merging into it TC's operations will materially improve it's EPS, it's cash flow, and it's resource base outside a hostile jurisdiction. If the gold market continues to improve over time, it's hard to see how CG stock doesn't go up over time. MM will jazz EPS for them beginning in '17, if not in H2 '16 after closing of deal. We get shares, and thus participation in this.

    Back in 2011, and 2012, when gold stocks were all the rage and were peaking (before Bernanke decided to help Wall Street to tank gold in early 2013), Kumtor still provided the majority of CG revenue, earnings, CF, and the stock was at $20. It even pays a small dividend today.

    After perpetually reducing my basis on this ffkking stock last two years and buying some really cheap notes (not enough unfortunately), I see how I get made whole very quickly w. this deal.

    It's the best deal on the table, and I don't think RGLD is going to prove to be willing to screw around re-arranging the streaming deal with any late comer wanting to top Centerra's deal.

    It's certainly better than the alternative.

    Given how galactically stupid the mgmt. of TC is, I'll take this lowball offer.

    That CG is stalking TC, taking them out at a low price, show's they are not stupid.

    I can hitch my wagon to that and wait.

  • Reply to

    Do we get the termination fee?

    by bestguesser Jul 7, 2016 3:19 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 5:16 PM Flag

    Which is why it's better to hitch one's wagon to the party that will benefit materially, rather than just pouting for a better deal, and then find out TC is going to give 100% of TC assets to the TC noteholders after the deal fails.........

    CG shares are depressed because they have one source of revenue (Kumtor) in a perennially hostile situation w. some ex-Soviet corrupt ding#$%$ republic in the middle of nowhere Asia.

    At least they have expropriation coverage, fortunately.

    MM changes that mix, and CG's stock price will benefit for that. They also have a smaller capex-light heap-leach operation coming online (next year sometime) in Turkey, that will kick off some nice cash for a number of years too.

    It isn't all rotten.

    Perron tossing the company into Chapter 11, after paying out the termination fee and fees to advisors, of course............now that's rotten.

    Is that what you want...............?

    To make some "statement"..........?

    Time to wise up.

  • ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 5:06 PM Flag

    No, and no.

    Simply annualized Centerras Q1-16 EPS (which was a bad quarter from production and thus sales perspective), and added MM contribution into the mix using '17 production (and thus sales profile from technical report mine plan), swapping out old note interest for new Scotia Bank credit facility extended Centerra. That likely has a rate of 6mt Libor + spread. Given Centerra has low debt, that spread is probably low). I used 300 bps for it. On $325mm if fully borrowed, that's about $13-14mm in 'replacement' interest vs. combined TC note interest of about $78mm. TC's MM likely kicks in $100mm in operating profit for '17 when crusher and thru-put go online, and MM staff get recoveries up more closely to purported design spec (vs. the horrible efforts to date). Centerra has plans for MM's recoveries. See their presentation. All the stuff I once mentioned while ago that Reggot used to like to poo-poo. CG will improve LOM gold recovery dramatically. TC never got the chance.

  • Reply to

    Don't you get it?

    by arnoldboils Jul 6, 2016 7:26 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 4:58 PM Flag

    Bernie's world is awash in fantasy.

    That much should be obvious.

  • Reply to

    Do we get the termination fee?

    by bestguesser Jul 7, 2016 3:19 PM
    ultraific3 ultraific3 Jul 7, 2016 4:57 PM Flag

    TC pays the termination fee.

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