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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Message Board

unclebobbyrednecker 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2016 12:32 PM Member since: Jul 25, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Analysts Updated Estimates on ESTE

    by ipso.facto100 Jun 18, 2016 2:53 AM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jul 11, 2016 12:32 PM Flag

    Nice call ffen I do say so myself..............oil at $44.96 right now.

  • unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jul 1, 2016 9:45 AM Flag

    Fellar, are you sayn' it was overpiced a bit??????

  • Reply to

    .....the rest of the story

    by hondo_43 Jun 15, 2016 9:25 PM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jul 1, 2016 9:18 AM Flag

    Fellar, are they in the early innings of turnin' thissen around? Seems like they got thar cost structure under control and gross margin on the increase. Yet, will the slowing global economy prove a challenge in the months ahead? Not ready yet to add.

  • unclebobbyrednecker by unclebobbyrednecker Jun 27, 2016 11:26 AM Flag

    Reckon someone out thar doesn't want to see it slip below that mark.............until a course the buyer runs out of funds.

  • unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 27, 2016 9:25 AM Flag

    true........I like yer analogy bout the sinkin' ship, yet ESTE will make it to port at some point, but when?

    Those directors in my view were basically obligated to make insider purchases. Iffen they did not, thissen would be at $9 right now. I still think thars a shot at single digits per my March 1 prediction. Can you imagine iffen those directors did not buy any shares? YIKES! Thus, they had to buy some in my view to restore some confidence after they diluted out the current shareholders. Still dead money fer a spell until they can convince shareholders they can make some decent EPS. No need to hurry in thissen as I see it. Still believe oil will test the $45 mark by July 31 and they caint make a big EPS at $45 oil with all those shares outstandin'.

  • Reply to

    Analysts Updated Estimates on ESTE

    by ipso.facto100 Jun 18, 2016 2:53 AM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 27, 2016 8:56 AM Flag

    Fellar, a healthy balance sheet does not translate into Earnings Per Share. I been saying' this fer quite a spell. I seriously doubt they'll be in the black fer the quarter endin' June 30, and the quarter endin' September 30. Oil is headin' fer the $45 area by July 31 as China's storage tanks will be burstin' full by then. Fuel demand is steady, yet not that strong. I jest traveled 1,400 miles on Innerstates and the traffic was light the past few days, except fer the tractor trailers. Farmin' nearin' completion and summer travel bout half over. Oil should test $45 by July 31 and caint see ESTE makin' a lotsa cashola with all them shares outstandin' now. Fellar, it is about EPS, not so much about balance sheet. Can The "Load"zinski make hay while the sun shines? Hopes so, but still dead money fer a while.

  • Reply to

    Comments on Stock Offering

    by true_truth Jun 16, 2016 10:38 AM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 16, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    true.........that seems like a reasonable view. At some point this may pay off, but not now in my view. The more I think about this, well, 2016 will most likely be unprofitable over the four quarters. Iffen low oil prices persist, well with a 25% dilution either (like you said) "want to see production going through the roof, and costs going through the floor". The wait for a sizable return on investment got longer in my view. Still happy on the sidelines.

  • Reply to

    Underwritten secondary in process

    by dormie18 Jun 15, 2016 5:21 PM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 16, 2016 10:15 AM Flag

    Maybe so, but as an investor I don't trust anybody. I would reckon that this is not "son of GEOI" as some might believe. Things are a tad diffrant right now. Notice that new shares money will be used to pay back debt in part...........I tend to read that as thar won't be any EPS fer a spell and cash flow could have been a problem in meetin' debt obligations. Thus new shares money will enable them to meet thar debt payments by dilutin' existin' shareholders by 25%. Some money will be used fer cap-ex, yet low oil prices will most likely go to year end. The ratio a this bein' good news or bad news is debatable. Yet iffen yer an existin' shareholder, well how much time you got??? Time is money, right???

  • Reply to

    innerstin' 2 days

    by unclebobbyrednecker Jun 8, 2016 4:32 PM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 16, 2016 9:36 AM Flag

    Now we know why the big volume.............sellers in anticipation at the new dilution.

  • Reply to

    Underwritten secondary in process

    by dormie18 Jun 15, 2016 5:21 PM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 16, 2016 9:34 AM Flag

    25% increase in shares outstandin' from my calculations.............roughly 17.5 million shares plus 4.5 million shares equals 22 million shares now. (plus another optional 650,000 shares iffen the underwriters fill that opition). Will revnue generation & eps go up 25%??? Not this year.............dead money fellar!

  • unclebobbyrednecker by unclebobbyrednecker Jun 16, 2016 8:50 AM Flag

    Wellnow fellars it sorta lookyslke my hunch thissen'l be in single digits by July 4 is gettin' closer all the time................can you spell MORE DILUTION???? Black gold headin' fer $45 or less by end a July once China's tanks are fllled to the brim (reducin' global demand) and ESTE wants to ramp up perduction. Got me to scratchn' my head and other locations. Lower fer longer is playin' out jest like I said it would. When them bigshot oil tycoons are so way off base in thar predictions (Pickens, Hamm, etc.) "Houston, we gots a problem".........Anothern loss this quarter very likely, even possibly fer Q #3 report. Can you spell DEAD MONEY..............fellars I will probly re-enter at some point will wait fer single digits. It will be innerstin' to see the size a the offerin' since we gots more than 10 times the amount shares as when I was BSIC. Much arger compny a course, yet bigger losses to. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    New article is out in SA

    by ipso.facto100 Jun 14, 2016 11:11 AM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 15, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    Fellar, maybe some day they'll put one out sayn' "It's all about EPS,EPS,EPS"...........I'd rather see thatten.

  • unclebobbyrednecker by unclebobbyrednecker Jun 13, 2016 12:28 PM Flag

    Fellars, sounds like Chinese storage is near completely full and will be thar by mid July..........iffen so will that slow demand leadin' to a slow aggravated price decline? Oh Boone Pickens, that $70 oil call fer the end a 2015 was quit a mistake.............Hamm, the guy from Continental Resources is now calling fer $70 by yearend.........iffen the guys closest to the wellhead are so fer off in thar predictions, well who do you trust??? Lower fer longer has been the right view. I spose lower fer longer will last into 2017, thus ESTE will continue to be dead money.............not forever..........but for a while longer.

  • Reply to

    innerstin' 2 days

    by unclebobbyrednecker Jun 8, 2016 4:32 PM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 9, 2016 9:29 AM Flag

    Fellar, like the sign on the wall at my favrite wateriin'hole says..........free beer.......................tomorrow.

  • Reply to

    innerstin' 2 days

    by unclebobbyrednecker Jun 8, 2016 4:32 PM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 9, 2016 8:50 AM Flag

    Fellar, Christmas is comin' to!

  • unclebobbyrednecker by unclebobbyrednecker Jun 8, 2016 4:32 PM Flag

    June 7, 161K shares tradered and up 41 cents and today June 8, 81K shares tradered and down 42 cents. That's roughly 242K shares (pretty big volume for thissen) traded and roughly no price change as the end result over the past two days. Am wondrin' if half felt lucky to get in and half felt lucky to get out? The volume seems to be a positive, yet the non-existent price change a negative over the two day period for that much volume. Still believe thissen'l be dead money fer a spell and thar will be another quarterly loss for the quarter endin' in June.

  • unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker Jun 6, 2016 9:03 AM Flag

    rokdoc, I forsee anothern loss in this quarter. With the expanded share base, the acquisition costs,& low oil price I caint see'em in the black this quarter. I believe thar will be losses and come next December 31, 2016 when the books are tallied 2016 will have a net loss. That's why it has been and will be dead money fer a spell, unless a course you are good at avoidin' bein' whipsawed by the market. Sorta like that thar Tom Cruise fellar in the movie who says "show me the money". Did they buy those assets at distressed prices or should they have waited a spell? Next winter thar are gonna be some good deals out thar by kaput outfits. I tend to think they pulled the trigger too early.

  • Reply to

    Nice upward move yesterday!

    by unclebobbyrednecker May 24, 2016 8:44 AM
    unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker May 27, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    Dead cat Bounce????? Was $11.00 n May 13..............then up north a $15 on May 26........now headin' lower..........not sure $50 oil gonna hold. Maybe profit takin'? Can investors spell whiplash? Hmmm.

  • unclebobbyrednecker by unclebobbyrednecker May 24, 2016 8:44 AM Flag

    Wellnow, maybe this is the start a somethin'? Good volume to. Yet, will it hold? Good luck t all!

  • unclebobbyrednecker unclebobbyrednecker May 19, 2016 4:04 PM Flag

    true............I do respect yer opinion and such, yet I always been one a them thar doubtin' Thomas type a fellars........it has kept me outer trouble over the years and am gettin' too old to get in much further trouble. (caint run very fast). Nowthen, the need to prove to me they can make money in this type a environment. I was skeptical under Singleton's reign and haven't see any profits from the current outfit. That's not to say it won't happen. Sure thissen is much diffrant than the prior ESTE, and a course I find it an innerstin' outfit, but have remained to sit on the sidelines as an observer.

GS
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