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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

unclespeaking 826 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 17 minutes ago Member since: Sep 10, 2013
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  • unclespeaking unclespeaking 2 hours 17 minutes ago Flag

    //You seem to think a dividend hike is the cure the the cheap stock price//
    Who wants to Cure stock price? Only Parker can Cure it by growing real earnings. not just the P/E. What does it have to do with GM, you don't drive GM in the sky, they also need to have real earnings Growth too. It's good GM is paying up with meaningful dividend while the shareholders watch the paints dry, it is the Right thing to do.
    You understand what I'm talking about with real money?
    AAL made Pre-tax income of $1,245m, $1,862m, $1,895m and $1,286m last year, and so far it made
    $1,221m, $1,594m the first 2 quarters, it's only 10% less for the last 2 quarters, let's see if Parker can even make $1,400m with the extra $100m credit card deal in Q3, compared to $1,895m last year.
    You do understand why Parker kept talking about Long-term? Because it ain't easy comps this year with the oil situation (vs last year), longer-term things the fuel costs will "look" more "stabilized".

  • Uncle thinks 2.1% dividend is fair, compared to S&P 500 avg of 2.05%.

  • Reply to

    ALL is Good for ALGT, except the Share Price!

    by unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 4:00 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 6:28 PM Flag

    Well, don't bother to get into another Stupid Airlines, the only way they can be Smart again is when they at least turn the RASM or TRASM up, it's a Fishy industry in the Sky.
    ps, Just Higher Revenue and Higher Profit, even some will lower cost as well can't Beat the Fish's FASM.

  • Reply to

    ALL is Good for ALGT, except the Share Price!

    by unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 4:00 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 4:50 PM Flag

    Don't own it, don't follow it, but it doesn't make sense for it to go down. It's simply too weird.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 4:08 PM Flag

    Neither AMZN nor Google is $1,000 yet, and FB even closes down. What a shame!
    AAL closed down with AAPL. They are not even related.
    Maybe the Street is Stupid Today?

  • 1. Beat/shattered/surpassed 2Q estimates Top and Bottom line.
    2. Ratified New Contracts
    3. Ordered New Planes for the 1st time.
    Stock went down 5%.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 2:40 PM Flag

    It counted Nothing! Not a damn thing on Land.
    Uncle kept telling these Oil Fools if they want to maintain higher oil price they should just sit on their hands for at least 6 months; they just won't listen. It's hard to manipulate prices if they don't play by the rules.
    Same thing is true with the airlines, if someone wants to hike the fare, you just join the party.
    There is really no need to keep increasing capacities if you have to fly your pilots to death, and Union just shuts up, nobody got speedy tickets on the Sky!

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 2:07 PM Flag

    Fish probably were tricked well when Spirit said 3Q capacity will be reduced from 23.14% in 2Q to 16%; in fact, the 3Q15 capacity only increased 7.38% from 2Q15.
    Some Fish have openly complained that it's getting harder to defend Spirit nowadays.
    Fish getting stuck between a Rock and a Hard Place?
    Man, that King Fish has the biggest Head, he got stuck really good.

  • unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    Nope. It's hard to tell them to cut too much capacity, they're smart to show you they're cutting "Scheduled" capacity already, and they talked about more initiatives to increase revenue. SAVE's pricing tickets like commodities has been a "model" being copied even by the "me too" Parker, they depend a whole lot on non-ticket sales. All they need to do is to hike fare "in theory"; doubt that Parker will follow since Parker seems to figure out how to fight them already.
    Well, this is still Option Expiration Day, ALL DAY, hopefully AAL will come way up 6x6 at the end of the day.

  • * "Scheduled capacity is expected to be up 16% in the third quarter" - conf call

    * Continue to target a capacity increase of about 20% for the full year 2016 - conf call

    * "On a demand front, domestic leisure volumes are strong, however yield remain soft" - conf call

    * Sees third quarter operating margin of about 21 pct - conf call

    * Weakness in few currency driven countries, most notably in Colombia, few places in Central America continued in quarter - conf call

  • Reply to

    Low Sucker Range

    by unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 9:54 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 12:06 PM Flag

    //I can visualize imbecile #1 and imbecile #2 getting down on their knees//
    Why did you keep claiming #1 position?

  • The other two needs to trick them to work, Yahoo kept wasting time to change things for no good reason.
    It's Weekly Option Expiration day, ALL DAY; they always mess with people on Option Expiration Days.

  • Reply to

    40 dollar oil

    by dca1186 Jul 29, 2016 10:12 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 10:51 AM Flag

    //all in costs for fuel around $1.30 per gallon again.//
    Last quarter average Raw Spot price as $1.277/gal, so far this quarter average was $1.291/gal up to 7/25 when WTI Spot was $42.40, Brent $43.76. Refinery Crack Spread only recovered a little.
    Last quarter Jet Fuel Spot went all the way up from around $1 to around $1.40; this quarter it started at the highest of $1.424 and came all the way down to $1.192 in less than a month. Airlines like LUV has $1bn in the hole already hedging oil in this crazy market; Delta took a STOP loss and look forward, though it may still suffer very little MTM loss. ALK looks to give back the Hedging&MTM gain it made the last 2 quarters.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    Told Buffett that his PSX buy was really a Sucker Buy, fools follow him and bought at the high when they found Buffett owned it between $74-82 range; it's back to $74 again.

  • Reply to

    SAVE to Report tomorrow

    by unclespeaking Jul 28, 2016 7:01 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 9:46 AM Flag

    Will read Spirit's cc later, do like to know if they're adding capacities in new market or mature ones, it makes big difference. According to what we've known Spirits did initiate the price hikes twice, if they add capacities in new markets and had promotion there then it's good. Personally, I think it's more like the case then I think we may have recovery on PRASM in a couple of month due to the lagging.

  • Reply to

    SAVE to Report tomorrow

    by unclespeaking Jul 28, 2016 7:01 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 29, 2016 9:38 AM Flag

    SAVE missed Street estimates by $3m on Revenue as expected; Fish don't know Math the company already gave the "exact" numbers ahead of time. Beat the EPS with "Special Items". Report was ok.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 28, 2016 7:01 PM Flag

    SAVE guided about $3m lower revenue than the Street estimates. Will be interesting to see if the Fish will grill them over capacity.

  • Reply to

    All Fish are created Equal...

    by unclespeaking Jul 27, 2016 4:56 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 28, 2016 2:17 PM Flag

    One Cat in Hand is worth 2 in the Cage?

  • Reply to

    My PT

    by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 28, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    //Everyone on this board including Uncle thought they would be paying cash taxes in 2016 //
    Depends how you say it; they've been paying Real Cash Taxes for a long while, 1Q15 $2m, 2Q15 $8m, 3Q15 $10m, 4Q15 $0, 1Q16 $3m, 2Q16 $2m. Those were really out of the pockets money, non-deferred taxes Paid, Gone with the wind...

  • Reply to

    My PT

    by cavalier2015 Jul 27, 2016 5:05 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 28, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    It's pretty much inline with some other posters who come here to complain about making too much money but don't want to pay taxes, and everyone wants to dictate how the stock should be traded too.
    The truth is one should never assume the whole world is Stupid just because one is stupid, everybody can still read and the companies still post their financial reports every quarter. The reversing valuation allowances and paying (but not really paying) taxes afterward was even mentioned by Uncle way ahead of time, so why people are still upset with the non-issue really beats the sheet out of me.
    The Pre-Tax income will be down again, but company is still pretty profitable, and the stock price is low and reflecting the fundamental weakness accordingly. AAL has been stable around Uncle's 6x6, it's called Basing technically.

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