With Higher Imports, Higher Production and lower refinery utilization, we have inventory draw last week. It seems somebody screws up the calculation, but the (inventory) draw appears to be a function of Increased crude Exports and an adjustment to #$%$) "unaccounted for crude oil" , which is essentially a balancing mechanism when various data points monitored don't align.
//Anyone who thinks there's a genuine "revenue problem" in the airline industry is foolish.//
If you think what others think with all they've said, you're in serious trouble.
It's ALL about sustainable future Profit Growth ALL the time, but with higher and higher costs even with lower for longer fuel costs, it seems logical that sustainable Higher and Higher Revenue will help at this moment.
Nothing should be taken as sole solution to problems, not the capacity myth, it's combination of capacity and Load Factor that matters. Revenue is a Product of RASM and Capacity, you can't growth negative capacity with little higher RASM. Also lower Capacity hurts Ex-Fuel costs too.
Wrong again; the market does care about everything, fundamental and technical, we need to see some revenue growth since the costs kept going up which will hurt future real earnings which has shown up on earnings estimates. All other potential problems, especially on AAL, will be addressed as time goes.
Forget about that Ramen Janes downgrade, it's totally useless catch-up for them.
Listen and listen hard. Delta CEO is seeing improvement in September Revenue, and Uncle saw good close-in prices in LAX.
"Delta CEO Ed Bastian said at an event in Atlanta yesterday that he is seeing an improvement in the airline's revenue in September, according to Bloomberg. Bastian also declined to comment on any non-binding bid for Avianca, the national airline of Colombia, but said that Delta has not made a "committed bid" for the company, Bloomberg added. "
But, it's not even OverSold yet with RSI at 37,34, after MACD signaled Sell 6 days ago, 5dma has already been under 13dma for 5 days. You have buyers lining up but the sale booth is not open yet.
Don't pay attention to this Ramen Janes, everyone knows the Higher Fuel Higher PRASM/RASM is still not working till it works on Comp later before they talk about real earnings growth. AAL has too much undesirable capacity and lowest Load Factor, the utilization needs to get improved first.
Who's suing whom this time? It is not what it SAID?
//Alaska Air, Virgin said to have constructive talks with DOJ, CTFN says Executives from Virgin America (VA) and Alaska Airlines (ALK) met with Department of Justice regulators on September 15 and a senior antitrust attorney told CTFN that he believes the talks were constructive. The attorney, who handles airline mergers, thinks that the DOJ will approve the merger without conditions, CTFN added. Alaska Air agreed in April to acquire Virgin America for $57.00 per share in cash. Read more at: http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2432382//
// if you look at earnings estimates now vs 2 years ago, estimates have come down just as much as the stock price//
Uncle has been "looking" hard, just don't know how to make it out of the "AAL's more profitable" thing people are talking. The Net Income Excluding Special Item, the base for calculating NON-GAAP EPS, was $4,184m in 2014, $6,268m in 2015, and it's projected to be $3,030m for 2016, and they think 2017 will be less, how dare they think it that way!
//What you looking at ? //
Was talking about the Shorts Interest/Ratio for 9/19, in other word only 40% of trading volume on 9/19 was reported as Shorts.
You should concentrate on the Backdoor meeting between ALK, VA and DOJ that's going on instead?
Short Interest on AAL was down to under 40% Yesterday as the stock is heading toward OverSold (more like UnderBought to Uncle) territory, RSI is still lingering around 42...
Uncle defines OverSold as when people are so scared to Dump their shares at ANY cost, and UnderBought is simply lack of interests buying and holding their shares tight while stock price is slowly declining.
//Oil is still lower than previous analyst predictions and looks to stay that way into q4. You never know there. //
Will Never Speculate on Oil, it's purely manipulation, speculation, especially the WTI (vs Brent).
It's back to "OPEC Output cut and USA Supply" story again for the day.
Actually, they can pump or dump on Gasoline inventory alone (Up is Down), or Cushing Storage space (Down is Up) at they will. Random Walk? Yeah, you got that going again but it's true for WTI.
July Airfare was down 4.6%, August 5.5% y/y, September ???
That's the problem with the airlines when the Jet fuel is still so low, and LUV kept refusing to hike the price not even when little guy JBLU initiated the hike; AAL has not initiated fare hike either.
//this inability to maximize shareholder value is becoming a real problem.//
That's not Quite Right, Parker is Actually Maximizing Shareholders' value too much that nobody really gives it a damnn nowadays. People just want to see PRASM/RASM going Up. What we have seen so far is Parker kept giving employees big rewards, increasing debts for new planes, not that new planes are not good but it's better to buy slowly at best prices. Now, we have Kirby getting aggressive at UAL, we may see more competition in 2017. We need more people monitoring different routes; Uncle thought that's what Fish should do, instead of upgrading/downgrading stocks with no good reasons. Is that JPM Fish retired?
//The Bakken is going to post yoy increased oil production in 2017. Interesting place, Williston, ND//
Yeah, Willison's Rig Count has already down from 68 to 27, let it Rise!