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Apollo Education Group, Inc. Message Board

unclespeaking 822 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Sep 10, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Who zapped the airlines

    by jalopysrus Jul 20, 2016 2:34 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 20, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    It's fine to tell the market it's Stupid as it is (was?), just don't let it think "Enough is Enough" because we want to be Greedy.
    Trust me, Greed is good, Fear is Bad; just look at the Market itself, the Airlines must follow the trend.
    Talk is Good, let all the Fish come to Talk. It ain't done till Yates capitulates again.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 20, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    Uncle tells them to come up as close to the revenue estimates as possible and beat the EPS by at least 5 cents. We don't need any collateral damages and it's good that SAVE's failure didn't cause us any big trouble.
    I think HA reports after the market closes; they'll at least beat the revenue by a few millions.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 20, 2016 12:21 PM Flag

    People are getting totally disengaged as AAL walks into RSI 70 zone ahead of earnings, this is very weird situation. The "Stupid market" heard hard all the outcries from posters almost 24/7 when AAL was under $30 and Corrected itself, now the market is getting Smarter and Smarter and people seemed to tell it "Enough is Enough"? What's in everybody's mind? Will Parker make the Market Stupid Again?
    Is that what it is?

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 20, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    "UAL reported 2Q16 EPS of $2.61 vs. our estimate of $2.57 and consensus of $2.56. Three key takeaways: (1) UAL trimmed 2016 ASM growth at the high end by 50bp (now +1.0% to +1.5% y/y), (2) UAL guided to 3Q PRASM of #$%$ to -7.5%, which was in the ballpark, and (3) 3Q EPS guide implies consensus is fine as it is. Overall this is just fine. "
    Why pushing for Profits, just Cut, Cut, and Cut the Capacity! There is nothing New to say as far as the Fish goes!
    Just make sure to tell the same to the ULCCs.
    In the meanwhile, Parker's secret yield program is probably at work.

  • Shock and Awed?

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 20, 2016 10:26 AM Flag

    Testing 3666 and Go!
    Uncle plays Parker Go!

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 20, 2016 10:10 AM Flag

    After early Confusion...
    Just use the damn GPS!

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 20, 2016 9:56 AM Flag

    With only 331m shares left; UAL has authorized another $2bn buybacks, putting it on top of the buyback list with $2,255m of buying power while Parker has only little over $1.1bn left. UAL has very low Net Debt; it showed adjusted Free Cash Flow of $1.78bn in 2Q16.
    Airlines should turn around as the fuel cost seems to be stably trending downward short-term, but question remained if they can really turn their unit revenue up fast enough. So far is all talks about September.

  • Not even the traders this time; they want to hear what EIA has to say tomorrow.
    In the meanwhile, UAL seemed to lose patience after-hours by releasing its 2Q results and authorized an additional $2bn share repurchase program.

  • Reply to

    AAL, Fight, Fight, Fight!

    by unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 11:13 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 5:27 PM Flag

    Looks like a pretty good fight while I was out for lunch; people love to fight the 6x6 for sure.

  • Reply to

    AAL, Fight, Fight, Fight!

    by unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 11:13 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    Hope they don't add bunch of "Share-based compensation" in Special Items this quarter.

  • Reply to

    AAL, Fight, Fight, Fight!

    by unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 11:13 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    I see; I got UAL on wrong day, so it's only ALK, LUV and HA reporting on Super Thursday 7/21.
    That's One Lucky (7) over 3 Luckies (3x7); only One gets Lucky and don't know which one?

  • Reply to

    Airlines are down in sympathy with SAVE?

    by unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 9:56 AM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 11:57 AM Flag

    // I don't like owning companies that have a sucky product, even if they make money. Long term, it never goes well//
    SAVE actually initiated $10 price hikes since early May, that's good thing they've done to help themselves and others. They can't give up their capacities too much to fast till they can improve their Unit revenue (Aka RASM) which has been the main cause their share price weakness. Most Fish are betting they'll see RASM to improve in Q3, which may make it a good trade if the stock retraces enough amount.
    Both SAVE and HA have been Uncle's toys in the past, along with VA before ALK took it over. Uncle has no secret at all.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    6x6, we must Go!
    Don't touch that SAVE crap if it doesn't come down at least 8%!
    AAL is eating their lunch!
    In the meanwhile, help Uncle Guess how much Special Items Uncle should use for AAL's mainline this quarter.
    Last 5 quarters were $303m, $144m, 163m, 441m and 99m, it makes big difference to the margin.
    My 2nd thought was if they're coming in at high end of 14-16%, they would've revised their guidance to 15-16% like they did with PRASM?

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 19, 2016 10:00 AM Flag

    See if the crooks reposition themselves back into Banks before Auntie shows up next time.
    Still a little bit more time, but people/lines are moving ...

  • King Fish said he's not surprised SAVE came in with lower TRASM; not good but not shocking.
    In fact, SAVE is only down little over 5%, it IS not Shocking at all; thought it would come down 8% if it were AAL. Uncle will rework on AAL's estimate after Super Thursday's Reports.

  • Reply to

    SAVE tanking after hours

    by jalopysrus Jul 18, 2016 5:14 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 18, 2016 6:04 PM Flag

    Let's see if King Fish will come to defend; actually the Operating Income is about the same for SAVE if they figured that out. Only the revenue short fall is almost 2% wide.

  • Reply to

    SAVE tanking after hours

    by jalopysrus Jul 18, 2016 5:14 PM
    unclespeaking unclespeaking Jul 18, 2016 6:00 PM Flag

    They actually guide everything very well, except the Bad Stuff.
    Adjusted Operating Margin is up to 22% at high end, CASM-ex is much lower at 8% instead of 5%,
    Bad Stuff such as Capacity and TRASM went "wrong" direction, instead of 23.8% more capacity, it's 23.1%, TRASM down 14.3%, instead of down 12.8%.
    Was wondering why SAVE's Short-interest went up Friday, after coming down several days.
    Street was expecting their revenue to rise 7.4%, lower than their implied 7.9% guidance early, probably to help them Beat 3 days from now. Now, it's like 5.5% based on the new guidance.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 18, 2016 3:10 PM Flag

    There are just too many days between Delta's earning date and the Super Thrusday when ALK, LUV, UAL and HA decide to brainstorm the investors. Parker is the Smartest one, the longer he waits the better "Vision" he'll get.
    In the meanwhile, this 6x6 is tricky number, it's harder than you think to pass 3 devils (666) to get to two luckies; once it gets over $37.25 it'll be blue sky again.

  • unclespeaking by unclespeaking Jul 18, 2016 2:06 PM Flag

    Well, at least King Fish likes it. More cuts from the legacies is good news for his recommendation to buy SAVE?
    Actually, that's the basis of all the Fish Calls when they only go after the legacies on capacities Hard.
    "Post-Labor Day capacity growth slowed incrementally this week, as we noticed in our weekly scrub of published schedule data, as U.S. airlines trimmed back seat growth both domestically and internationally. These stocks rallied last week on 4Q capacity cut announcements from DAL and AAL, so this schedule pull is noteworthy because UAL actually cut more than any other airline (160bp out, now growing +2.7% y/y). "

APOL
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