Even he did, it wouldn't have the same effects. People have continued pricing in all the bad stuff into AAL's earnings estimates, except some rotten Dead Fish. The PRASM of (6%) to (8%), based on AAL's normally conservative guidance, is now leaning toward (8%) than ((6%), the normally aggressive fuel estimate of $1.33/gal is more like $1.51-$1.52/gal with the help of low refinery cracking, Uncle has lowered AAL's Pre-tax margin guidance of 14-16% down to 12-14%, or simply 12.94%, which still shows a pretty healthy Non-GAAP income of more than $830m on fully Taxed basis.
//why not pick a number equal the bottom of the range, then at worst you meet expectations but often you underpromise/overdeliver.//
Delta did just that; they guided 21-23% margin and (2.5%) to (4.5%) PRASM, when they announced recently the margin could be 21%, and PRASM maybe close to (4.5%) or little lower. The stock sold off and it was called a "Warning". Now they pick a number (5%) for PRASM, the stock drops again.
The stock actually got sold off when they first guided 21-23%, Jamie Baker was even questioning why it's not like last year when they guided 2Q number way up, and Delta asked why did he look at the higher fuel price. Now we know the fuel is really way up. The 17% they guided was due to (4%) effect on their early settlement of hedges. Hey, the quarter is already Over, it's stupid to give people a range, you just give people a number showing you do really know Math, no guessing or messing around.
Not really, you just have Ignore some people then every board looks the same. Do your own homework, don't just rely on other people. UAL has much bigger burden on fuel and salary than AAL, it's like 45.52% vs 38.42% of their respective Revenue, otherwise they're not worse than AAL at all. DAL has to pay up on Labor Cost, so does LUV later; AAL does have big advantage over its peers on Labor situation.
//I want 8x8. Bob is waiting for Parker to flip the switch to 9x9.//
There are "criteria/formula" to be met in my theory for stocks to move into the "right" target, based on human behavior, otherwise any stock can go 5x5, 6x6, 9x9 all the way Up. It ain't my call but I knew when we broke 6x6 down and cut through $30.5 like a knife over hot cake we would hit 5x5, I also knew that we couldn't go 8x8 when we failed to cross $56.5 "in time" last year. I also factored in option expiration dates when I made up my "system", it's all for fun. That said, if anybody is investing just for fun, he's going to lose, so deep down you still need to focus on making money. There are thousand of stocks you can "sprinkle" your money on, Airlines is just a sector.
Do remember to come back to see Uncle from time to time, AAL board may not be great but we only have a couple of crazy people here but they're on Ignore.
//what's the benefit of guiding to ranges rather than a single number uncle?//
Isn't it more challenging to guide to a single number than a wide range?
A range of 12-14% nowadays is taken as 13%, 14-16% is taken as 15%.
We are talking about Adjusted Pre-tax margin; the Operating Margin is Higher.
For 2016, the International Air Transport Association (or IATA) expects another good year for passenger travel. Demand is expected to grow by 6.9%, compared to the 6.7% growth projected for 2015. Total air travel is expected to reach a record 140 million passengers this spring season.
With DAL selling at ev/EBITDA of 3.47, ALK 3.88, UAL 3.29 all under 4x, which is historically low, and they're all pretty much oversold, hopefully the market has noticed that this weekend.
$461m is SAVE's fuel costs last year, and $502m was their Pre-tax income.
Fuel was 21.55% of SAVE's revenue, compared to 15.19% for AAL which was the lowest for all Airlines.
Don't get it why that Rotten Tomato fund manager thinks AAL will be hit hardest if the Oil price shoots up?
Parker will make Canada Great Again!
//AAL has the highest debt of the major carriers but ALL carriers are down appox the same//
So, that's why nobody really complains about the debts Right now; all they care is still the PRASM, PRASM and PRASM. It's very simple and clear before we added the fuel situation.
The Jet Fuel can go up 10-20% and still causes no big problems at all since it's only 11% of AAL's Revenue,
a 15% Rise on fuel only needs the PRASM to Rise up 2.6% to offset it, less if the "Other Revenue" keeps "growing". Hey, just send out a PR saying the Air Fare is strengthening than ALL will be fine.
Hey, this is a Game, a some sort of Sport, you know in Baseball you don't just stand there swinging, you have to Hit the ball, you don't just think about Home-run, you have to Hit and Hit hard. Make sure out-of-bounds don't count.
An American airlines spokesman, Josh Freed, responding to Lykouretzos, referred Reuters to recent comments from Chief Executive Doug Parker on a company earnings call.
Parker on that call said American was "purchasing our shares because we are bullish on the stock," and said "the industry is well undervalued," adding, "We think American Airlines has more upside than anyone else in the industry."
Yeah, after seeing UAL's report Uncle does believe AAL's PRASM guidance was conservative.
Just updated the revenue to be $10,285m for the quarter, after they added little more capacity than guided before. The fuel is about $1.41/gal on 931m gal mainline, $1.46/gal on 191m regional, works out $1.42/gal system. This also solves the mystery why ALK has higher fuel since theirs is closer to AAL's regional than mainline (plus hedge).
Pre-tax margin will be 14.78% assuming only $150m of "Special items", which is pretty low, it can be higher, so 14.78% can also be a little conservative.
Non-GAAP Net income will be around $951m, EPS will be $1.68/share using 565m shares.
With about 1/3 of revenue coming from "Other Revenues", the PRASM is becoming silly comparison, they should just give people RASM instead. Even LUV has negative PRASM (growth), HA is one and only with Positive PRASM and RASM but it caused the urgency from Yates to call for caution with their future?
I have no idea if they do have to pay the analysts for sleeping on the job?
I don't think he doesn't know anything, and in fact I did agree when he said it's pretty hard for Airlines to lose money nowadays. That said, I don't see anyone of them have control of the pricing at lower for longer fuel prices. The PRASM Fish has been barking about is no longer a good measure, even with the capacity growth known, 1/3 or even more revenue will be or has been coming from Other Revenue nowadays. They have Fixed Costs whether they fly more or less people, so even the lower CASM-Ex along won't tell the story. One has to play with spreadsheet/computer to see the changes these days. We can't rely on the Fish any more, why let them play our money when they only know things afterward? It's totally BS when they're barking about, they had no Balls to give people confident when things were going wrong way.