One whole school of Fish.
For all the recent updates and such, Cowen only upped her target from $42 to $43, the target is higher but the increment ain't as big as Julie's $5 increase from $29 to $34.
That Buckingham is bucking good, increasing the target by $5, from $44 to $49 (7x7).
That Fish Eye saw Brexit effect limited, so he TRIMMED AAL's 2017 revenue by 1 Billion Bucks! He also raised his 3Q EPS by a nickel that he found on the Steet today to $1.55/share.
"The analyst also noted that management is confident of the new revenue management system to be rolled out in the fourth quarter of 2016, which should generate at least $1 billion in new revenue in 2017."
Uncle doesn't understand the logic why the Fish "noted" all the good things about generating at least $1bn in new revenue and Cut his 2017 revenue by $1 billion at the same time?
It's all about being Cool.
After visiting San Francisco recently, Uncle bought into the company after seeing lots of places using that "White Thing" that Process the Credit Cards. I think that's cool even they haven't made a dime yet. Uncle thinks they should list their stock on Nasdaq, instead of NYSE, we're more bullish this year than in year 2000 on High techs. Who knows if Nasdaq will go 75x75 one day.
It's been too much headaches getting into this stupid Yahoo message board lately, and now we have to spend extra time arguing? AAL has been down and down due to so many "market events"; it has nothing to do with debts or P/E, not when PRASM and Capacity are still in those Fish's minds. We know how to calculate all sort of things, so it ain't Math question either. Honestly, Uncle believes all the problems can only be solved with time passing. There's no real genius in town, even Newton will just eat the Apple falling on his head today.
JBLU will report tomorrow, let the Fish ask all the tough questions and make them disciplined too?
//and their debt was in the around $12B-$13B? //
Nope, that's not true.
Total Long and Short-term debts stands at $22,849m, net debt is $15,755m, excluding restricted cash.
Adjusted total debts, if including 7x last 12-month Aircraft Rent as others do, is already $31,324m or $24,330m of Net Debt. It is much more than the company's market cap, the question is simply "So What?" since the credit agencies just don't care any more.
Uncle has downgrades all credit agencies long time ago, they should've been all locked up during financial crisis with their fraud Methodology.
//I sold shares bought at 32.50 will look at getting back in on likely market pullback//
You don't seem to have any reason to be Upset; you just want to buy low and sell high apparently.
Just the PRASM along is full of sheet, and the kind of margin with the everyday low share price is not something to complain about. You like Margin or discipline play you can always buy ALK, but the Street does not reward them for what they did either. Hey, at lease Uncle puts money where Uncle's mouth is, just hate to recommend buying stocks nowadays since it ain't my business.
Please listen and listen hard; these people HAVE to run their business day-in and day-out, they have to keep fighting because none of them have absolute control of the pricing. You can't simply cut the capacity and see your PRASM go up, and the higher fuel higher PRASM is still a myth, especially the fuel is not going High enough. The profit will stay, it's just more or less, the EPS can be fudged with less shares, but not everyone is Stupid just because Parker is "Smart". Actually, it has Nothing to do with Parker being Smart or Stupid; he hasn't changed a bit, they'll continue fighting whoever comes around them with lower fare if they can make money. They'll keep buying back stocks because that's their religion, they'll even delay delivering plans to save some money when their debts are piling up. That said, the dumb strategy may will work as time goes and eventually the PRASM will go up on easier comps, and the low P/E maybe bought hard. We know exactly what we are in, we simply kept giving Parker money to gamble, it's OPM (Other People's Money) to him anyway, so we're also playing as well. Don't think this is your kind of game, but you just love to play and complain.
We know the Papa Bears and Mama Bears shorted AAL hard from $42, regrardless what sort of excuses they've made up from thin air, we can meet tham at the half way at $39 first.
Let's go back and settle this thing at 6x6 for the day while Uncle goes for lunch.
At Her age, she still has so much to learn to become Smarter Fish. The most the other more mature ones only gave their opinions without changing their targets till company announcing something, she kept flip-flopping herself. Fish flipping and flopping too much is not good, not very healthy situation.
Things that AAL announced recently were
1. They switched to guiding RASM instead of PRASM, basically it makes it easier for Fish who are not good with Math to judge. Current guidance is same as guiding PRASM (4.76%) to (7.05%). The midpoint of (-5.9%) is better than last quarter's (6.3%).
2. 3Q16 and 4Q16's revenues will be helped by $100m higher "Other Revenue" from Credit Cards.
3. CAPEX will be down $200-300m starting Next Year after delaying Aircraft delivery.
So, with a little help on the Higher revenue and Lower Costs, it is positive news to justify the recent price movement. (It's like $175m on the Pre-tax income boost per quarter).
Now she says the Target is at $34, up from $29.
Come on, the stocks has already over 6x6, but it's fine with Uncle if her target keeps going up $5 at a time.
//UBS guy says 3q rasm/margin guides beat consensus guides.//
That's a NO, if you use midpoint estimates.
3Q15 ASM was 71,091,607k, 3Q16 will be 72,513,439k based on Capcity up 2%.
3Q15 RASM was 15.06c, 3Q16 will be 14.38c based on midpoint (4.5%) lower RASM.
The total revenue will be $10,429m, with calculated ASM and RASM.
3Q16 Passenger Revenue will be $8,979m, with guided Cargo $175m and Other $1,275m
Consensus Revenue is $10.45bn, it is higher than $10,429m.
PRASM is 12.38c vs 13.16c last year, it is (5.91%) whether they tell you or not.
//Aal has has record margins, profit during 9 of the last 10 quarters//
Not true., but good enough Profits and Margins. You can say they have Record EPS, excluding special items and Non-Cash Income Tax Provision due to much lower share counts (Yeah, Yeah, the wisdom of Parker eating up all the shares, Ha!). Let's call the following Income-Ex and EPS-ex:
Net Income Excluding Special Items and Non-Cash Income Tax Provision was $1,592m vs $1,854m last year.
Adjusted EPS was $2.81/share vs $2.62/share last year.
Yeah, depends how you say it, but don't say it in front of King Fish or he'll question you what's the purpose of maximizing profits.
One thing I'm so sure about the Airlines is you can't keep winning if you're the Network Operator (HA ain't such a thing, HA is simply King of Hawaii) you can't win all the time, so you must stand up from where you fall and walk again. Just keep learning from your mistakes, fight whatever war you have to fight like a man. There's no such thing like Model you've proud of, LUV must charge fee and bags like others, early settle their hedges like Delta did or at least don't keep betting good money on top of bad money. Delta can't enjoy all the premium tickets as they think they could. Americans just won't pay up, they're always cheap and most stupid that's how SAVE succeeds because they know so.
It's good that more people are starting to read and understand the "situation" around the Airlines; Parker does care much about keeping his Market Shares and he will keep fighting and fighting, there is no Other way (as far as keeping market shares). In reality, he would've done much better if he had "sacrificed" more on the losing routes earlier. That said, in current market nobody really has the edge, Delta thinks they can give you more "freebies" for higher fares, I think they're out of realities as well. You've seen or start to see they're dropping to the bottom as far as performance goes. In my opinion, only the management knows about their own routes, bookings, PRASMs on every segment. This no longer a PRASM but RASM and Capacity war, and it won't end till the Fish all jump on the ULCCs with same question they try to bang on the legacies.
85% of AAL's customers only fly once a year, so depending on how they'll do it to those who only want to pay the bottom prices, they have to pay for all the extras, and it will help the "Other Revenue" too.
//I am guessing they will use up all that is left in this Q so at the current price they will end up buying 37 to 40 million shares in Q3.//
7,228,129 shares have been bought between 7/1-7/15, that's another $230m used, I'll bet they have less than $1bn at this moment for repurchase.
Outstanding Shares on 7/15 529,913,365 shares, on 6/30 537,141,492 (Check 10Q Filing)
Yahoo and most of the financial sites will show 537.1m as Outstanding Shares soon.
We still need people to remind the management that they could do whatever they wanted, mainly because we have corrupted Credit Agencies, we're told to Watch the movie "Big Shorts" to understand.
With Total Long & Short-term debts of $22,849m, plus $8,575m (7x lst 12-month Aircraft rent), and $7,094m unrestricted Cash, AAL has $31,424m of Adjusted Total Debts or $24,330m of Adjusted Net Debt (and Going...).
Nope, the Buyback should End ASAP, 500m shares is good enough.
Keay: "So, you mentioned some of the ULCC competitive headwind shifting, do you feel vindicated, I mean I guess what you said here is, what we have learned is that it pays to kind of go nuclear when this stuff happens, so do you feel vindicated that this is happening now or do you – now that this is sort of settling down, do you feel like, well, maybe there could have been like a little bit more of a tactical way to do this without setting the house on fire, but we had to destroy the village to save it type thing or is there any like lessons learned that you can extrapolate going forward about how to compete maybe more tactically or do you have no regrets?"
Kirby: "I don’t agree with any of the commentary about nuclear, house on fire, any of that..."
Keay:"Fine, whatever you want to declare?
Kirby:"I think that there was absolutely no choice, but to compete and to match pricing of nonstop competitors, so just absolutely no choice. And it’s not a matter of vindicated or any other of those words. It’s what you have to do. And it’s what we have done and it’s the right strategy."
"I think the danger of focusing just on PRASM is that you don't know what happens in any particular market. You don't know what happens with fuel prices and I think you are seeing a lot of that now. But at the end of the day, it's really RASM that matters and profit on the bottom line and actual cash that goes into your checking account that you can use to delever the balance sheet and pay back debt and return capital to shareholders. "
Yeah, that's my comment after reading ALK's CC transcript one more time.
I think Fish should let the companies do their own business; this King Fish only cares one Number that has become less and less important, it is the total passenger revenue divided by capacity on a company's entire market, which has different conditions, such as competition, fuel costs and such. Some markets can be very weak while the others strong. At the end of the day, the Total Revenue and RASM, and how much money they can put in their pockets counts. We can almost know how the market may act on a company's stock price if the management refused to bend over to the Fish. It is kind of Sad.
You'll be fine with Uncle watching your back; can't really do a thing during summer time, totally grounded till October. You guys should go to UK, if you don't mind the weather, everything is cheap (cheaper) nowadays; just booked 4 Virgin Atlantic tickets for my brother-in-law to take his 3 young dauthers there for a couple of weeks, people regret they didn't have enough time with their kids when they're older and richer. Man, we did a lot with ours but still wish we could've done more.
Stop it, my son and daughter-in-law are in Germany on some sort of church mission; told him not to go but "kids" don't listen nowadays; duaghter and son-in-law are in Bali Resort, that's another dangerous place. What's wrong with the adult kids? Made me nervous, normally I can sleep like a baby, and they just kept doing what they want.
Come on, you know Parker is good at Multi-Tasking. Parker does all kind of good and bad stuff, there was $1,853m of debt payments and $1,711m of stock repurchase, countered by a $3,022m of new long-term debts ($Cash "they called"?); there's $1,890m of show-term investment Purchase and $1,890m Sale of Short-term investment". They also have $1,506m of Capx. Yeah, Unrestricted "Cash" is really Up from $6,930m to $7,094m, Debt is also up from $21,744m to $22,849m, but no worry since the NET debt is only "manageable" $15,115m.
The Net Debt only increased by $992m, even the debt is up more. Parker got More Cash for the Chatters to Talk about. "AAL has made a lot of money, and Parker got lots of Cash" - Good topic.
AAL did have $2,213m of Operating Cash Flow, and $707m of Free Cash Flow this quarter. Don't get it wrong!