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Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation Message Board

uplinvestor 530 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2015 5:22 PM Member since: Jan 7, 2014
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  • The downgrade yesterday had to do with the option chain that expired yesterday and nothing with ESPN.

    Look at the hug open interest in the 110 (11,385) and 115 puts (35,665). The number for the 110 calls (6,495) and the 115 calls (10,877) were not that big.

    Nasdaq site still has the option chain for December.

    There was a chance that had that downgrade not come, the stock would have edged towards 114-115 (it had reached 114.48 the previous day).

    Now the 35,665 $115 puts were in the money by $7 instead of being in the money by just $0.50 to %1.0. The 110 puts should have been worthless and instead finished in the money by $2. Those 35,665 puts being in the money meant those option holders got $25 million payout instead of it being close to worthless. Even the $110 puts meant a $2.3 million payout instead of it being worthless.

    So, if BTIG's clients had owned a lot of these puts, they made out like bandits with this downgrade.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Dec 19, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    Here's what the Ex-ceo himself said in a Dutch Forum: Google this to find it.

    --------------------------
    From a personal perspective the last six years were very challenging and I needed to make a change. There is never an ideal moment, but after all the successes - Glybera, validation of our AAV5 insect cell technology in the CNS, BMS collaboration - and having built such a strong financial position for QURE (we will have more than 200 m end of year) I asked the board to think about my succession. It was important that we would find an operationally strong leader who would have a tight grip on building out the portfolio and eventually commercial infrastructure.

    I am fully supporting the new management of the company. Also, I would like to assure you that there is no change over gudiance/ outlook given in our recent calls and public statements.

    Warm regards and thanks for all your support in recent years!

    Joern

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Box Office: 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' Headed for Record $50M-$55M Thursday-Night Opening

    J.J. Abrams' movie began rolling out at 7 p.m. Thursday in thousands of North American theaters; fanboys turn out in force, with males making up more than 70 percent of the audience.

    J.J. Abrams' Star Wars: The Force Awakens is headed for a $50 million-$55 million Thursday-night opening at the North American box office, a record number that could climb as high as $60 million by morning.

    The previous champ was Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows' Part 2, the final film in the franchise, which earned $43.5 million in Thursday previews in July 2011. The Dark Knight Rises took in $30.6 million in 2012, and Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 took in $30.4 million, also in 2012.

    DIS is down pre-market. Go figure!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott started shares of Momenta Pharmaceuticals with an Overweight rating and $26 price target. Glatopa, or generic Copaxone, is a key near-term value-driver for the company, Schott tells investors in a research note

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Step 16

    At long last! We've found the brains of the operation, the logic board!

    Apple APL1021 A9X 64-bit Processor

    SK Hynix H9HCNNNBTUMLNR-NLH 16 Gb (2 GB) LPDDR4 RAM (2 GB x 2 = 4 GB total)

    Toshiba TGBX5G8D4KLDXG 32 GB NAND Flash

    InvenSense MP67B 6-axis Gyroscope and Accelerometer Combo

    NXP 65V10 NFC Controller (also found in the iPhone 6, as well as Nexus 5X and 6P)

    NXP Semiconductors LPC11U37 ARM Cortex-M0 Microcontroller

    Apple (Cirrus Logic) 338S1213 Audio Codec

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is almost no float in MNTA considering that insiders and institutional holdings account for most of the float.

    Blackrock decreased that float even more.

    The CAFC ruling should slowly help boost the share price.

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Nov 10, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    Good news: They reverse the lower court and now hold that the 271(e)(1) safe harbor does not protect Amphastar, "The conclusion in Momenta I that Amphastar’s commercial use of Momenta’s patented method falls within the safe harbor of §271(e)(1) would result in manifest injustice."

    Bad News: Dismissal of the claim against TEVA, as that is based on Section 271(g) and requires that TEVA have used the Momenta patent to "make" the product, and the court find the patent was not so used.

    No bump in stock price yet. Maybe if MNTA releases a PR? AMPH is flat too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Sep 11, 2015 6:10 AM Flag

    Here are some tweets from respectable Biotech guys.

    Brad Loncar ‏@bradloncar Sep 9
    A PR person reached out to confirm that $ESPR cancelled because they are awaiting the minutes.

    Sudhanva Raj ‏@SudhanvaRaj Sep 9
    $ESPR - confirms cancelled from Biocentury conf - waiting for FDA minutes - Bloomberg

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Nice!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Aug 12, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    Information here thanks to user Boing X 2 on the MNTA IHub board

    Kaiser has a new standing order:

    Approved standing orders are written instructions issued by medical practitioners, in accordance with the regulations, authorizing pharmacy personnel at pharmacies owned or operated by Kaiser Foundation Health Plan to supply and administer specified medications under circumstances specified in the order.

    Copaxone 20 mg/ml injection will be changed to glatiramer acetate 20 mg/ml injec- tion via standing order. The FDA recently approved Glatopa, a generic or biosimilar version of Copaxone 20 mg/ml.

    Kaiser is pretty big, so we should get a boost from this.

    ------------
    Also, UNH is currently reviewing GLATOPA

    UnitedHealthcare Evaluating Newly Approved MS and Cystic Fibrosis Drugs

    Generic MS Drug Approved
    Glatopa™, the first generic version of Teva’s Copaxone® (glatiramer) is a 20 mg once-daily injectable multiple sclerosis (MS) drug that was launched in the U.S. by Sandoz, a Novartis company, in June. It is the first substitutable generic version of Copaxone approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

    ...

    Review and coverage decisions occur within six months of launch. This minimizes member disruption if the decision is made to permanently exclude a medication, as members have not yet utilized their pharmacy benefit for that medication and may already be using a covered alternative. Additionally, client costs are reduced through the use of lower-cost options.

    The MS drug Glatopa will be excluded at launch for UnitedHealthcare customers with the Exclude at Launch program in place until an appropriate management strategy is determined. For groups without the program, Glatopa will be included in the notification and supply limit program.
    --------------
    Aetna already covers GLATOPA
    ---------------
    I think this will ramp up nicely.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Stockholm, Sweden - 12th August 2015 - Transmode, a global supplier of packet-optical networking solutions, today announced that the Canadian operator Sogetel has deployed Transmode to extend its optical network infrastructure to enhance both reach and performance across Quebec. The new network delivers greater speed and capacity for Sogetel's metro networks in over 20 cities in the province, including Montreal and Quebec City.

    Sogetel is one of the largest independent incumbent telecommunications companies in Canada. It offers a full range of services including telephony, television, internet, cloud services and mobile. When Sogetel decided to make a major infrastructure investment to upgrade its capacity, it turned to Transmode based on the previous excellent working relationship with local partner Sak Data and Transmode.

    The new packet optical system deployed by Sogetel is based on Transmode's TM-Series and significantly increases capacity across the region-wide network. The network was preconfigured at Transmode's headquarters in Stockholm then transported and installed in only two weeks by Transmode's engineers and Sak Data. The installation was achieved without any interruption to ongoing services.

    ...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Aug 4, 2015 8:23 AM Flag

    Perfect guess by Dew Diligence.
    -------------------------
    Total revenues for the second quarter of 2015 were $44.9 million compared to $11.0 million for the same period in 2014.

    Total revenues for the second quarter of 2015 include $19.2 million in product revenue, which represents 50% of contractual profit earned from net sales of Glatopa by Sandoz, net of a deduction of $9.0 million in reimbursement to Sandoz of the Companys share of pre-launch Glatopa-related legal expenses.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Raised guidance

    by uplinvestor Aug 3, 2015 4:40 PM
    uplinvestor uplinvestor Aug 3, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Non GAAP EPS at midpoint will be 0.30 to 0.32. So, if they get to $170 million, we could have 0.34-0.35 EPS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Aug 3, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Rev guidance for Q2 at $166 (+/- 4) -- i.e. 162 - 170; At midpoint it is higher than the $164.71 consensus estimate.

    After hours at $21

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor by uplinvestor Aug 3, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Integrated Device Tech (NASDAQ:IDTI):

    FQ1 EPS of $0.31 beats by $0.02.
    Revenue of $160.91M (+27.4% Y/Y) beats by $0.37M.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • These are all the prescription numbers available on GLATOPA to date since launch (from the IMS numbers posted on the MNTA IHUB board) -- Thanks to Pollyvonwog

    Prescription Numbers from 7/24

    TRX: Copax = 10,777 Glatopa = 957
    NRX: Copax = 3,324 Glatopa = 755
    NRX Quantity: Copax = 67,971 Glatopa = 26,198

    Prescription Numbers from 7/17

    TRX: Copax = 10,977 Glatopa = 939
    NrX: Copax = 3,008 Glatop = 794

    NRX Quantity Counts for 6-26, 7-2, 7-10

    7/10: Copaxone = 58,173 Glatopa = 28,056
    7/2: Copaxone = 50,551 Glatopa = 16,075
    6/26: Copaxone = 53,193 Glatopa = 600

    NRX / TRX Counts for 6-26, 7-2, 7-10

    7-10: copax 10,724 glatopa 963
    7-2: copax 9866 glatopa 526
    6-26 copax 11337 glatopa 20

    Note:
    NRX is New Prescriptions or renewals
    TRX is Total Prescriptions.
    NRX Quantity for GLATOPA should be 30 (31) syringes / prescription (One month supply)
    NRX Quantity for Copaxone is a mix of the 20 mg / 40 mg prescriptions -- 30 (31) syringes for the 20 mg prescription and about 13 (14) syringes for the thrice weekly 40 mg

    The TRX counts for GLATOPA should go up to 2,000 and beyond in a couple of weeks as renewals start kicking in.

    My guess is that in a few months we get to about 3,000- 4,000 in TRX for GLATOPA and about 7,000 - 8,000 for Copaxone. Getting a bigger share would then depend on what happens with the patent for the Copaxone 40 mg. If that is invalidated, GLATOPA should get to 50-60% of total sales.

    MNTA should slowly start going up in price as people start realizing that this is going to mean real money coming in. There will always be an overhang with a possible approval for Mylan/NATCO's generic. However, it should not be as big an overhang when people thought that TEVA would get a generic Lovenox approval 3-4 years ago (Amphastar did and Teva didn't then). That is because the profit sharing agreement for generic Copaxone is always 50-50 regardless of how many generics there are.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    No, he is not extrapolating a full year's revenue. He clearly states that a majority of this revenue was for inventory stocking. His assumptions / calculations were based on what NVS reported.

    This shouldn't be a $23 stock for too long as more people figure this out. Also, the NATCO revelation that they don't expect to get Copaxone approval for 18-24 months is huge. They are probably running into a lot of issues with their application at the FDA

    ------
    -- A sizable portion of 2Q15 Glatopa sales were for inventory stocking, according to NVS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Mylan's partner NATCO which submitted the Copaxone ANDA is now saying that their generic version of Copaxone won't be approved for at least 18-24 months in a presentation made last month.

    Expanding US Footprint Through a Differentiated Product Pipeline of Niche and Complex Products (Cont’d)

    ...

    - 14 Para IV filings with combined market size of US$11.1bn and 4 big ticket Para III filings

    - Well positioned to unlock its pipeline value in the near term with expected approvals of 4-5 ANDA in 18-24 months including gCopaxone 20mg in US

    This is a huge positive for MNTA. That means they can make a ton of money being the sole generic for Copaxone for two years.

    In addition they will be eligible for the bulk of the additional $120 million in milestone payments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    So, we get to about $41-42 million revenues for Q2.

    $20 million milestone payments
    $19 million GLATOPA revenue
    $2-3 million Enox revenue

    Yahoo consensus estimates are for $23.6 million and a loss of 0.19 cents. So, we could have a positive EPS and $17-18 million beat on revenues

    Looks like a no-brainer buy at 22.5 :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • uplinvestor uplinvestor Jul 21, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Scratch that. They will be cash flow positive as there were two $10 million milestone payments in Q2:

    • FDA approval: $10M

    • U.S. product launch: $10M

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

COG
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