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Seattle Genetics, Inc. Message Board

urabt2 42 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2016 11:07 AM Member since: Jul 28, 1998
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  • Reply to

    CLDX initiates phase 1/2 in advanced RCC

    by urabt2 Jul 11, 2016 4:35 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 12, 2016 11:07 AM Flag

    Yes. The treatment arm performed as expected, but the prednisone control arm outperformed typical performance (shockingly) and submarined the trial in Ph 3. Very tough indication, as is TNBC. Though VBLT is having good results so far in GBM. I bought to weakly hedge against a CLDX failure but got out. I may jump back in though. Forget about the CLDX message board. It is garbage. All politics and name calling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone look up the Scripts?

    by urabt2 Jul 12, 2016 9:15 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 12, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    Where did you hear that? Why not? Thats bazaar.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLDX initiates phase 1/2 in advanced RCC

    by urabt2 Jul 11, 2016 4:35 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 12, 2016 10:19 AM Flag

    I was wrong on TNBC Ph 3. In Ph 2. The Glemba technology licensed from Seattle Genetics. Interim read out of TNBC sounds like a '17 event now. I think that Varli is likely to be combined with many other compounds. Apparently it has improved the performance of everything it has been combined with so far. I think the Ph 3 you are seeing is the failed Rintega for GBM. Shot the stock down big time. I bouight in around $4 rode it to the $30s, bought on the backslide at around $20 and $13, and here we are back in the $4s. In the infamous word of Homer Simpson: "Dowpe!"

    " the next data readout is expected to be second-half 2016 from the Phase 2 study of glemba in metastatic melanoma in unresectable Stage III/IV patients, which is on schedule to complete enrollment in next quarter. Celldex also expects the Phase 2 METRIC trial in patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) that overexpress gpNMB to complete enrollment in second-half 2016, with data in 2017. We also expect data from Celldex’s comprehensive Varlilumab (”varli”) program in 2017 -- varli is currently in a Phase 1/2 study with Roche Holding’s ( RHHBY ) anti-PDL1 atezolizumab in unresectable Stage III/IV renal cell carcinoma, a Phase 1/2 with nivolumab (Opdivo) in various solid tumors, and two additional combination studies with ipilumumab and sunitinib."

  • ...yet

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLDX initiates phase 1/2 in advanced RCC

    by urabt2 Jul 11, 2016 4:35 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 12, 2016 9:14 AM Flag

    I think they are in PH 3 for Glemba for trip neg Breast Cancer. Interim readout around year end. Varli has the potential to treat many indications.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I own about the same amount of CLDX as I do EXEL. Maybe they would make a hgood combo in RCC?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/celldex-therapeutics-initiates-phase-1-200100912.html

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SP after Notes Redeemed (If and when)

    by ulingt Jul 3, 2016 10:08 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 5, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    You asked for an explanation and I gave you an example. You are entitled to your view and I mine. Look elsewhere for an argument. Covered selling has been a winning strategy for this stock for years with rare exception. Its been pretty damn easy so far. And the arbs won't jump in without a buyer. I guess we will just have to watch and see what the short count looks like when and if the converts are forced. You can keep competing for the most brilliant kid on the block though if you wish, but some of us also know what we are doing and others here like a detailed explanation.

  • Reply to

    SP after Notes Redeemed (If and when)

    by ulingt Jul 3, 2016 10:08 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 4, 2016 11:20 PM Flag

    You still miss my point. A forced conversion does not necessarily mean the rip cord is pulled and all the shorts go away. There are many levels in which they can still make money. You sound like someone emotionally attached. The convert holders are not. So, lets say that I am a convert holder that has shorted my converts such that I have been enjoying a risk-free return on my investment. That investment plan has ended as I am forced to convert my noted to shares. Now, I can either unwind my position by handing over my new shares to close my short position, OR, as I am in a covered position, I can ride it further and decide to dump my shorts if the stock is real and looking like acquisition bate; OR I can keep the emotion out of it still and one the SP has stabilized, I can start selling covered out of the money calls against my long shares and selling covered out of the money puts against my short positions. 70% of which typically expire worthless, so If they do, well, wash, rinse and repeat. There are lots of schemes that retail investors never dream of which can generate profits, and in this case, without risking money. Does that make any sense to you.

  • Reply to

    you see

    by serious7 Jul 3, 2016 5:58 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 4, 2016 12:55 PM Flag

    amen ernie.

  • Reply to

    you see

    by serious7 Jul 3, 2016 5:58 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 4, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    I would be happy to accept $16 tomorrow. Been here for 8 years and bought from the low $2s to as high as $12. So $16 would be a great ending.

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jul 4, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    the non-covert shorts may indeed be covering.

  • Reply to

    SP after Notes Redeemed (If and when)

    by ulingt Jul 3, 2016 10:08 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 4, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    Yes, they can force conversion. But you said that they could be "repaid", implying to me at least that you were suggesting that they should be called for cash. I was just asking where that cash would come from. I do agree that they should be converted asap. The drag on the stock price just grows as the sp grows and dilution increases. Later in the company's life if it is still independent, they can buy back some shares to reduce their large share count if they can afford it. But right now they cannot, so forcing conversion adds significant financial flexibility to the EXEL story. rather than the drag we have experienced.

  • Reply to

    SP after Notes Redeemed (If and when)

    by ulingt Jul 3, 2016 10:08 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 4, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    I wasn't arguing that it was a hedging strategy. I was arguing that they would not rush to the short exit door. They could take their time selling both shorts and longs, or they could wait until much of the downside risk is out of the stock and then start selling the shorts and hold the longs. But either way, these shorts are stable folks and there is no way to squeeze them.

  • Reply to

    SP after Notes Redeemed (If and when)

    by ulingt Jul 3, 2016 10:08 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 4, 2016 1:24 AM Flag

    Not necessarily. If they are converted to stock, it doesn't necessarily mean the shorts would go away as the convert holders would just have covered shorts.

  • Reply to

    SP after Notes Redeemed (If and when)

    by ulingt Jul 3, 2016 10:08 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 4, 2016 1:23 AM Flag

    And the notes payout funds would come from where?

  • Reply to

    Crazy High volume

    by dartgator Jul 1, 2016 10:10 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 1, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Perhaps the herd is following the Baker Bros in, and July 1st is the day to do it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    hostile takeover?

    by godhairyballs Jun 22, 2016 2:58 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 24, 2016 10:59 AM Flag

    I should have also added, that the acquirer is required by the SEC to make public their ownership and their intentions when they cross each 5% ownership increment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    hostile takeover?

    by godhairyballs Jun 22, 2016 2:58 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 23, 2016 9:40 PM Flag

    A little but important addition to Ernie points. Typically, the suitor really wants the target, they will accumulate just shy of 5% of the shares publicly and quietly in the open market. Then they will approach mgt with an offer. If they are rebuffed after reasonable negotiations and counters, they may go public. The impetuous to going public may also be their increase in their stake to the 5% threshold. Once their intentions are public, the shares will rise and they are free to continue accumulating shares in the public market until they reach the next reporting threshold of 10%, where they would likely reiterate their plans, driving the sp up further. this gives them the advantage over competing bidders and reduces their total acquisition price. Many companies will even lift their ownership further to ensure a greater likelihood of winning a shareholder vote if in fact there is a hostile. You just don't see those sorts of things in development biotech land though. A solid premium is always excepted, even if retail shareholders are unhappy with the result (i.e. Micromet).

  • Reply to

    hostile takeover?

    by godhairyballs Jun 22, 2016 2:58 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 23, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    Why "hostile"? All biotechs are for sale. Hostiles are just for companies that don't wish to be acquired or feel that they are not getting a fair premium.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    If they were to get bought out $65-$70 ?

    by bidcom_lives Jun 22, 2016 12:50 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 23, 2016 9:39 AM Flag

    need multiple bidders for sp optimization. A bidding war.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

SGEN
47.37-0.61(-1.27%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT