"...approval on or before June 28th is no brainer at this point, the drug is so effective and safe that the FDA did not even request and ADCOM..."
A no-brainer? Have any other drugs that didn't have AdComs not gotten approved? So every drug that has a PDUFA without an AdCom, we can safely assume will get approved?
LPCN is not a fund; it's a stock. There are/were a lot of other stocks in Visium Asset Management. Did any others fall 25-30% in the past 2 weeks or so?
Most FDA drug decisions are released on the PDUFA date, sometimes after hours. A few are released early, and sometimes, FDA delays a decision, usually by 3 months, but the delay is announced earlier than now. Your question relates to trying to understand why the stock has crashed. Are FDA decisions leaked? Who knows? The stock reactions afterwards tend to show that the overall market didn't know the FDA's decision ahead of time, but that doesn't mean that someone didn't know and trade ahead of the decision. As I posted before, I've seen strange stock action ahead of a PDUFA decision or AdCom that didn't correlate to the the ultimate outcome. So, that's my 2 cents, and you're left still guessing what's going on, just like the rest of us (except for those living with the Dunning-Krueger effect).
You have confused resistance with support. And you can't know what it'll peak at in July/August, etc. And what news could possibly come in July worth $20/share?
Let's hope that they stop selling @ 90 cents.
Thanks for broaching the possibility. Maybe. The article I read doesn't say anything about a forced liquidation, or that the fund had to liquidate within days. Without such urgency, if they bought LPCN expecting FDA approval, then it would make no sense to liquidate within 2 weeks of payoff. We have no information that they have liquidated the fund, only that they plan to, and that they plan to return money to clients later this Summer. However, they may be pressured to liquidate quickly since the news would probably make clients head for the phone to redeem shares in the fund.
Also, traders wanting to front-fun an expected selloff couldn't know when Visium would actually sell--before or after the PDUFA date. If the market sees high likelihood of approval, then selling now would not make sense. I'm still expecting/hoping for a pre-PDUFA reversal. I've seen strange price moves too many times before an FDA action that didn't correlate to the FDA's decision.
If this selloff is indeed due to Visium, I sure hope that they've sold all.
As you know, a bet with an unknown person over the internet would be meaningless. Whereas, selling short a substantial amount would be meaningful. It's not difficult to understand or do.
"... I'd still bet money that the common shares disappear in the future....:
Easy enough to actually do rather than just say.
This dummy was pumping it for weeks! What was the stock price when you started...about a hundred times higher than today?