Mack you act like there is an unlimited amount of time for management to turn the corner. Management stated their cash levels were at 6.2 million-That was 3 months ago. If they conspicuously omitted what the cash is April 1, 2011, then one has to wonder - If it was that good or better-they would have reassured us. Alot of posters seem to just keep on cheerleading about HOPE AND CHANGE..in the genral music business regarding the fact that the music business will NEVER BE THE SAME-. Folks will never buy CDs anymore..it will be downmloads and streaming from now on..and b/c Kazaa is at ground 0 for this new industry...somehow they will be able to exploit it. The problem with that thinking is that once the cash is gone..the game is over..Management told us VERBATIM that the cash burn would dramatically slow in the 4th quarter. I relied on that specific assertion..Turns out that the cash burn DID NOT SLOW IN Q4..It got much much worse...The adjusted ebitds loss was 5 million...Thats the organic cash burn and it is crystal clear that their promise was not at all correct. The reason for the bump up in cash, despite that organic 5 million cash loss in q4, was due to a tax windfall and other one time cash back windfalls-unrelated to the organic business., This proves that management has no credibility whatsoever.. and thye clock is running out..if there organic cash operating expenses, including ad spend is a 13 million quarterly run rate...and their revenues are 7 million or even 9 million assuming their continued growth rate...we still have a negative cash quarterly loss of 4 million a quarter...HOPE AND CHANGE always will take a backseat to REALITY,,and the reality of this companies finances looks extremely dangerous..
The CC will take place Thursday at 11 am EDT. This will take place DURING the trading day, and moreover, will SIMULATANEOUSLY be accessible through the web. This is interesting as most CC's take place prior to or after trading, and ususally is not simulataneously available through the web. This was delineated in the March 31, 2011 press release.
I am posting it in beta. Hopefully it will post. Check to see if there words met their actions
The share count was in the low 5 millions prior to the ammendment to the ATRN-Brilliant Digital agreement. After that, the share count rose to 6.2 million. Once the Kazza assets are transferred to ATRN at close of second quarter, the share count will be 7.9 million..BD is to be paid out of treasury stock..which will have a dilutive effect on our shares. All in all, the pps shouldnt retreat b/c the shares are being transferred for like value...
in the coming quarters such that the revenue numbers can rise a wee bit and the cost base can recede a wee bit..if that happens, the biz will be cash flow positive and any and all bk worries will be behind us
My prediction for Q1 2011 , that report will come out in 4-5 weeks, will be as follows:
Cost base...11.4 million
the shortfall on organic cash burn will be minus 3.2 million
Hopefully, by second quarter 2011 the rev numbers can climb higher and the costs base can continue to recede...
2011 Q2 Earnings
rev base...8.6 million
costs base ...10.6 million
minus 2 million organci cash burn
now the IRS is due to mail out almsot 1 million in tax rebates to ATRN in a month or so (In October 2010, the IRS mailed a check for almost 3 million to ATRN...re 2007 tax refunds) this is what helped the cash bleed in Q4 2010.....this tweaking quarter after quarter, with possible asset sales (which ATRN does have) can float them until the biz turns profitable...Bill Gates said years ago that the only viable music delivery model would be subscription based and that would compensate the music record lables via royalties...he said streaming vis mobile devices would be be a big deal..I see ATRN , if they dont screw it up, being at ground 0 for this new revolution I am not turning majorly positive on this co. I just see the potential for big things as long as management stays focused and executes.All in all its a risk either way...big returns or headed to BK court
Once the transfer of all Kazaa assets has been legally completed at the end of Q2 2011, management must transfer 1.7 million shares out of treasury to Brilliant Digital...Brace yourself..the share count will rise to approx. 7.9 million
Sir, I am long this stock..I own 2400 shares at ave costs basis of 3.85....There is execution risk here...I say its 50/50...could go sustantially higher or face Bankruptcy..it really all depends on management..now we are going to get in the next 40 days ...3 things
1. a conference call this Thursday on Q4 2010 numbers
2. Roughly May 12, 2011..Q1 2011 earnings release
3 a peak on that May Q1 2011 conference call into Q2 2011 numbers
Now, Thats 3 quarters of semi detailed info on this company in the next 5 and 1/2 weeks...Presently...the gap re Q1 in my humble opinion between earnings, organically, and the organic cost basis is at best 3 million..they need to close that gap and return to be cash flow positive. After pouring over SEC docs all weekend I am not worried about there BK situiation in the next 12 months..they could easily get credit lines secured by very highly liquid marketable assets//The Atrinsic 3rd party ad network -a top 10 agency on the planet could fetch 10-17 million dollars right now....what needs to happen during that period is for them to tweak the cost structure lower and ramp up subscriptions that will allow them to be a real player in this fascinating new industry
This Presetation by ATRN was given in Dec. 2010
This will capsulate ATRN's focus in a nutshell
The key takeaway from this presentation and the solution to get to cash flow positive is at least in large part ramping up those subscriptions..They said at this show and tell conference that they would get 10% per month...well they did that Almost.they had 64k at end of Q3..and then at end of q4 they had 77k..., but that has to be tapered with the fact that they needed to slow their revenue growth b/c more important priorities needed to be spend on product development.. Now we will get the total subscriptions on Thursday, as they pertain to the present...if they had 77k at the end of December..they should have roughly 100k right now..with that growth we will begin turning cash flow positive in 3 quarters as long as their cost base restructuring goes as planned
The most logical company that should and could easily acquire ATRN would be Pandora, particulary in light if the fact that they will have tons of cash to invest in after the coming IPO..The opex from ATRN, once in Pandora's hands would be drasyically reduced due to the same opex synergies of each co, not to mention the duplicative management salaries that would not even have to be. If I were on the board, I would aggressively attempt to sell this co. to Pandora
The above link re Pandoras IPO filing
Mack..conference calls are standard operating procedure for publicly traded companies. What is not standard operating procedure is giving a conference call during trading hours..at 11 am....This is highly irregular....unless the stock cant be affected..and that would be the case if they announce at 8 am that Pandora or spotify is buying the company out at a set price
In the words of George HW Bush "This is BAD, BAD"
Ability to Continue as a Going Concern
There is substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern. Our consolidated financial statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K are prepared using accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America applicable to a going concern, which contemplates the realization of assets and liquidation of liabilities in the normal course of business. The historical consolidated financial statements included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K do not include any adjustments that might be necessary if we are unable to continue as a going concern. The report of our independent registered public accountants, KPMG LLP, includes an explanatory paragraph related to our ability to continue as a going concern.
The assessment of our ability to continue as a going concern was made by management considering, among other factors: (i) our current levels of expenditures, including subscriber acquisition costs, operating expense, including product development, and overhead, (ii) our ongoing working capital needs, (iii) the uncertainty concerning the outcome of any financing, (iv) our fiscal year net losses of $19.7 million and $29.5 million for the years ending December 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively, (v) our $11.2 million and $3.0 million in cash used for operating activities for the years ending December 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively, (vi) the outstanding balance of cash and cash equivalents of $6.3 million as of December 31, 2010, and (vii) our budgets and financial projections of future operations, including the likelihood of achieving operating profitability without the need for additional financing.
For periods subsequent to December 31, 2010, we expect our losses to continue if we make expenditures to develop the Kazaa service, acquire subscribers for the Kazaa digital music service, and are not able to reduce other operating expenses and overhead sufficiently to a level in line with our level of revenues. If we are unable to increase revenues sufficiently or decrease our expenditures to a sustainable level, our financial position, results of operations, cash flows and liquidity will continue to be materially adversely affected. These conditions raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern
These managers were very very hushed mouth about Q1 developments. Although they are not under any legal duty to disseminate Q1 info, it is telling that if they didnt discuss any metrics for Q1, maybe they dont want us to know what said metrics are...Just as I previously observed, both these managers seem to act like they are only going through the motions, no enthusiasm, no passion, no excitement, my gut says they are really just trying to get up in the morning and only do what is required legally and if the boat floats fine if it sinks heck they have 25k per month for as long as the ship floats and in BK, they will have prior standing with respect to any employee benefits ...I just didnt sense in my gut that these managers even really like their jobs..they spoke directly from script and didnt seem the least bit interested in expressing any real words that would get me as a shareholder excited..well Time will certainly tell....I havent given up hope yet but again time will ultimately tell
company expects to make 1 or 2 significant announcements over the next few months.
I never heard these words uttered whatsoever..where in the call was that mentioned????
I am going to re-listen to the call..If that was said, then it absolutely confirms what I have been predicting on this board for more than 1 week. They are running dangerously low on cash and they will most likely announce the sale of that division. VTRO had a similar third party network and they received 11.7 million gross..as a precursor to an eventual sale they could set up a bridge loan and said loan will be a lien on the sale proceeds of the ad agencie's assets