March and April revised down by a total of 59,000. This will weaken the dollar initially oil tried to rally after the number but if they rally oil on less people working then a recession is right not far off. The Fed is truly sc-ewed they should have raised 2-3 years ago when GDP was much higher.
A rate hike is happening mostly because the Fed has backed themselves into a corner by talking tough for months now not because our economy needs one. It should have happened 2-3 years ago when GDP was 2-3%. Yellen still decides so I'm on the fence with her unlike about 65% of the Fed heads who are talking tough. A dollar more a gallon would guarantee a recession and watch retail numbers plummet in fact slowing consumption and GDP. So many Americans live paycheck to paycheck. The Fed is already at their threshold of year over year inflation the problem is it has happened in energy prices and wages in a short period of time. A jobs number of 160K and above should almost assure a hike either in June or July. That's why I said $55 could happen before a hike especially if they chose July but we need to remember that a lot of the disruptions of oil are coming back on and if oil does go higher I think the spicketts get turned on by a lot of producers. Oil has had the perfect storm of factors to go higher lately that can change quick sometimes.
$55 is possible even before the Fed but with a Fed rate hike I think part of the purpose of a hike will be to slow down the energy trade which the Fed cannot call the increase in about 3 months "transitory" anymore. Remember that some of those Fed printed dollars end up in these traders hands to play with. With a .8 GDP in the US consumers cannot afford to pay much more at the pumps. The energy stocks have seemed to have stalled like oil for now but one strange thing about today was that much of retail moved higher. If oil continues much higher I bet we see a recession within 9-12 months.
Mike Rothman just on CNBC he has been on before with his story and obviously his firm is positioned long he says $85 by year's end. Fadel Gheit who I respect a lot was on earlier along with another fellow analyst both said $80-$100 is a pipe dream. Like I said before the best cure for high prices (gas up about .60-.80 in near 3 months) is higher prices. The stock market is playing along since it follows oil daily despite 6 straight quarters of declining earnings and revenue. Party on until the Fed finally has to curb this party.
Oil is going to $65 soon....LOL. OPEC is dead they accomplished nothing again and they say they will leave it to the markets. If the price goes higher soon so many producers will open the spicketts. As gas goes higher people will drive less the best cure for higher prices is higher prices in our robust .8 GDP economy. Look at how the energy stocks have acted for more than a month now very few if any are breaking out to new highs that's telling you something. If the Fed raises soon and they may be forced to if gas goes higher the party will stall.
Do you ever give up? This is an overvalued dog it's in the penalty box for awhile. The market is near the daily highs and ANF is near the daily low. This is going nowhere for now.
and oil traders go along for the ride too. If we see a similar build today we may have seen a temporary top in oils for now. The Fed is the next wild card if they raise in June that takes out a couple of more dollars from the prices I believe. Now let's see how quickly the gas stations bring down their prices if we see the lower $40's soon. My bet is like a snail.
A 3.1 million draw was the estimate and so far oil is not moving much. Tomorrow's number and OPEC will dictate from here I guess. The oil trade is feeling a bit toppy.
Oil not down much in the AH so far. They are trying to keep this oil higher each day today it was rumors of an OPEC ceiling and all these stocks including markets rallied back hard. It's going to take the Fed to raise to strengthen the dollar, the disruptions to come back on line and the cure for high prices is higher prices to slow oil down. At some point gas which has jumped .60-.80 cents in many areas will hit those who live check to check. We may be getting close to that point soon.
Do you believe that most do that or that they are instructed by managers to push their positions or book? I think the latter that's how these firms work just like when they send their talking heads on TV to do the same.
The bump today so far is not that large probably because they had run shares pretty good into this call. Like I said much of the time they are late to the party and are just reacting to the stocks near term move. Analysts calls seem to affect many stocks for about 1-2 days in this market.
Not sure who I am voting for yet. I'm in NY Trump's home but he needs to tone his words a bit especially when it comes to some of our allies. Hillary is Hillary ( NY now also in fact she lives about 15 minutes from me) you get some of Bill's friends along with her which is not a bad thing economically I guess. Is Nader running again? Just kidding!
This may soon become a back half of the year play like much of tech sometimes is. However so many analysts are just reactionary to when a price target is hit. This upgrade possibly should have came closer to $10. Analysts are all now piling on with energy target bumps. They could not wait to downgrade 4-5 months ago now they cannot wait to upgrade many of those stocks despite many still reporting losses.